A busted Acer computer at home a week ago has sent Grant’s Tomb into a tailspin after two solid weeks of regular posts on the blog. But readers don’t care about that sort of thing. What they do care about is the Jared Allen trade and the impending Vikings domination of the NFC North.
Yes, I get the sense Minnesota Vikings fans are quite giddy these days. That happens when your favourite team is a major player in free agency and pulls off a blockbuster pre-draft trade – getting one of the league’s best defensive talents in the process.
So most fans (and the local and national football media) love the Allen trade. A lot of those same people (Like SI’s Peter King) figure the Vikes are a sure-fire playoff team. I like the Allen deal as well. But, as usual, I’m wary of any talk that it makes the Vikings the unquestioned favourite to win the NFC North and one the conference’s elite teams, provided, of course, that Tarvaris Jackson doesn’t muck it all up.
Can one guy really make that much of a difference? Can Jared Allen turn an 8-8 team into a 10-6, or – good golly, Miss Molly – an 11-5 or a 12-4 team? If you choose to keep scrolling down this page, you can read why I don’t think adding Allen is the cure-all for the Vikings pass rushing problems.
With Allen on board I’ve read that the Vikings now have the best defensive line in the NFL. Really? You mean the Vikings D-line is better than a New York Giants front line consisting of the likes of Michael Strahan (nine sacks), Fred Robbins (5.5 sacks), Justin Tuck (10 sacks) and Osi Umenyiora (13 sacks)?
Certainly Allen makes the Vikings D-line, which was already good (at least in the middle), better. But the argument that the double-teams Allen will routinely face makes Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison/Erasmus James better pass rushers seems suspect to me.
Edwards, Robison and James (for the 10 plays in ‘07 that he was healthy) couldn’t possibly get any more man-on-man matchups than they did last season. The truth is, they couldn’t get to the quarterback last year because they weren’t better than the offensive lineman blocking them often enough. It had nothing to do with facing double teams all the time. Opponents didn’t have to double-team Edwards or Robison much to stop them. And acquiring Allen won’t change that. Those guys simply need to become better players.
The same holds true for Kevin Williams, at least when we’re talking about applying pressure on the quarterback. Last year he made the Pro Bowl but he also finished with just three sacks. That was a career low. Diehard fans will have also noticed his sack totals have been going steadily downward since 2005. Williams is still a tremendous athlete – able to do things, like intercept passes and return them for touchdowns – that few players his size can do. But on passing downs last season I saw many plays where he was single-blocked and still couldn’t get to the quarterback. Often he seemed to give up after a couple of seconds of bull rushing and resort to just getting his hands up to deflect passes.
Again, from what I’ve been reading the consensus is Allen’s presence will mean less double teams for Williams and thus, more sacks for Williams. But check out the Vikings roster and the players that made up the Minnesota defensive line in 2004 when Williams had a career-best 11.5 sacks. It’s hard to believe Williams faced less double teams then than he did it ’07. If anything, the D-line had more talent last season than it had in 2004. He should have been seeing, at the most, the same amount of double-teams as in 2004. I don’t know where the Kevin Williams that sacked 11.5 quarterbacks has gone. But I wish he’d come back. That kind of player would make the Vikings defensive line the NFL's finest. I’m not sold on the fact that Allen playing next to him is going to turn him into the sack machine he once was.
In short, Allen will get his. That should improve the Vikings pass rush by itself. But for this defensive line to turn into some kind of latter day version of the Purple People Eaters perhaps we should be concentrating less on what Allen can do for his new D-line teammates and more on what his D-Line teammates can do for him and the team’s pass rushing fortunes.
On Deck: Inventory time in the NFC North
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5 comments:
I still think it takes 3 O-lineman to contain 2 Williams on enough plays that Allen will and whoever the other DE is that play will get their man-to-mans, which will help the D-line be better this year. You're right in saying they won't be the Purple People Eaters again, though.
I think the Packers have a respectable D and a potentially dangerous QB situation with Rodgers starting and Brohm waiting for his chance. They ought to be in contention for the division title this year. The Lions are dangerous enough to not count out (they DID start out 6-2 last year) and the Bears, while woeful, haven't exactly been pushovers for Minnesota the last few years. I think it will be a slugfest in the division this year.
And yes, Jackson will remain a big question mark and a primary concern for Vikings fans throughout the offseason. Nothing to do but wait and see what happens.
Peter:
As I've written before, I really, really, really the Allen trade. But Allen isn't going to magically turn Ray Edwards or Robison into double-digit sack guys (although I like the potential of both players.) That's something only they can control.
It also bothers me that everyone's kind of writing off the Bears, Lions and even the Packers to some degree. We know the Vikings defence will be pretty good. But we don't know if the Vikings offence can simply be good. Much improvement is required for that to happen, from Jackson, to the O-line's pass-blocking, to WR's that can get open and catch the ball. Without a decent offence I'm not sure we're that much better off than the Lions or the Bears
You mean the Vikings D-line is better than a New York Giants front line consisting of the likes of Michael Strahan (nine sacks), Fred Robbins (5.5 sacks), Justin Tuck (10 sacks) and Osi Umenyiora (13 sacks)?
Umm...yeah actually. The Williams bros. easily are as good as Fred Robbins and Tuck. Jared Allen is as good as Strahan in this point of career. And a better all-around DE than Osi. I'm pretty sure we can get good production out of the rotation of Robison, Edwards, and James.
Sack totals do NOT tell the whole story.
Jeff:
Thanks for the comments. You're right, sacks don't tell the whole story. There's QB hurries, tackles, etc. etc. But if a defensive line is getting that many sacks in today's NFL, when most QB's get rid of the ball pretty quickly, I'd argue that's a strong indication the Giants had a damn good defensive line last year.
They also were pretty good against the run. Not Vikings good but still good. On the flip side, the pass rush from the Vikings D-line was nowhere near as good as what the Giants got from theirs. Maybe Jared Allen changes that. I hope so. But I'm still not quite ready to crown the Vikings D-Line as the best in football yet.
Well, I definitely respect your opinion. I wouldn't blame anyone for thinking that the Giant's d-line is the best in the NFL. I just don't think it's that crazy to compare the two.
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