One thing that often happens in the NFL when a team rattles off a few wins, is there's a tendency to overvalue how good that squad really is.
Remember when Sports Illustrated's Peter King started loving the Vikings last year when they won five in a row?
Anyway, that seems to be happening right now with the Houston Texans. Some are suggesting this is a playoff team. And maybe they are.
But let's not forget that as the Texans (3-4) head to the Metrodome to play the Vikings (also 3-4) Sunday, the team is on a three-game winning streak with victories over Miami (3-4), Detroit (0-7) and Cincinnati (0-8). Let's not overestimate how "hot" the Texans really are.
The truth is the Texans have a nice collection of good-to-very good players. But no more so than the Vikings. The Vikes are also coming off a bye week, rested and relatively healthy, and they are playing at home. This is a game they should win.
Here are a few other things to think about over the weekend.
Love that consistency
There are some Vikings fans that wonder which team will show up on Sunday. But I actually think the Vikings have been very consistent in 2008. The coverage teams suck. The offence struggles to score points and pass the ball (except for the Bears game). The defence is good but not great.
All of those things may not change as the season continues. But what has to change if the Vikings are going to beat a beatable Texans team is to stop turning the ball over like they have the previous two games. When the Vikings do that it turns winnable games (like the Bears shootout) into losses and games that should be blowouts (like the Lions game) into narrow victories.
I don't know exactly how you end a rash of turnovers – I guess it would help if Gus Frerotte stopped throwing passes directly to opposing defensive backs – but I just know the Vikings have to find a way to do it and do it quickly.
Napoleon Harris: The adventure continues
Bears tight ends looked like Kellen Winslow Sr. against the Vikings two weeks ago. That happened to be the game that Napoleon Harris went from the scrap heap to starting middle linebacker.
Coincidence? Nah. Harris has never been known for his pass coverage skills. And while he probably won't be in there much on passing downs anyway, if Houston passes a lot on obvious running downs – and why wouldn't they? – they might be able to expose Harris. By the way, the name of Houston's tight end is Owen Daniels. He is fourth among NFL tight ends in catches (32) and yardage (395). Expect to hear his name called a lot during this game.
The Williams situation
I really don't expect it to have a negative impact on how they or the Vikings play. Pat and Kevin Williams and the rest of the Vikings are tired of hearing about this. So when the Williams' start playing, they'll have nothing on their minds but the Houston Texans. Same for the rest of the Vikings.
If anything, the Williams twins should be fired up by all this suspension and pill-popping talk. This could be the last game they play before getting suspended. I expect both players to be dominant, which is bad for the Texans offence and good for Vikings fans.
The other Williams situation
It's nice that safety Madieu Williams is supposed to play his first game of the season Sunday. But safety is not a real impact position in the NFL – unless your name is Ed Reed. So don't listen to any stories telling you that getting Williams back is a big deal. I suppose it can't hurt to get your starting safety in the lineup but I don't know how much it's going to help.
May I have another?
The Vikings offence managed to score 41 points against what is supposed to be a good Bears defence. That was encouraging. But the Vikings also did it against a Bears secondary that was littered with backups and special teamers. I'll need more evidence before I start believing this Vikes offence has a pulse.
The Texans defence is not very good, so if the Vikings offence craps out against them, we'll know the 41 points two week ago was a fluke. If they keep up the good work and hang 30 or more points on the Texans, maybe I'll start believing.
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5 comments:
This is a very good post. You've made some good points and gone against a few things that many others are saying. However...
"don't listen to any stories telling you that getting Williams back is a big deal."
...while I agree that Williams won't be a huge impact player, I do believe that he's a significant upgrade over rookie Tyrell Johnson (love his potential, but he needs time) and that his presence could free up Darren Sharper to work some of his magic. I predict Schaub throws 2 picks. Sharper, and, oh, Greenway.
Why do you always misspell "offence" and "defence"?
Peter:
You might turn out to be right about Williams. I wonder how much he will really play Sunday though. This will be his first game of 2008 – preseason or regular season. Is he in game shape? How will he react to game situations against a team that is going to throw the ball a lot? I'm figuring he splits the snaps with Johnson 50-50 in this one .
In time, he should be an upgrade over Johnson. But as for this game, I'm thinking not so much.
Sharper is due for an interception or two, however. Peterson is also about due to explode for a monster two touchdown, 160-180-yard day.
Dare to dream....
Anon:
It's not a misspelling if you're from Canada or the U.K., where both words are spelled with a "c" as opposed to an "s".
Other "misspellings" you'll find regularly in my posts if you keep reading them will be a) several words ending in "er" (like center. Spelled "centre" north of the border) and words that end in "or" (like color – spelled colour in Canada).
I realize if anyone is checking out this blog, they are usually Vikings fans and probably from the States. But I'm from Canada, so I'm going to keep spelling words the way we spell them. Please bear with me.
Ole' Peter up above has gotten used to it. He never points it out anymore.
ha ha, I sure used to, though.
I can put up with some Candian spelling for quality analysis.
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