Saturday, May 31, 2008

And the starting left tackle for your 2008 Minnesota Vikings – Artis Hicks!

In what is surely the first step towards some sort of disciplinary action, Viking Update, by way of Pro Football Talk, reports that the Vikings starting left tackle Bryant McKinnie met with Commish Roger Goodell Friday. As any good Vikings fan knows, McKinnie has had some legal problems this offseason for his part in a brawl outside a Miami nightclub.

It's unlikely McKinnie was meeting with the boss to discuss their alma mater''s respective fight songs.

And as a player who's been in court before for off-the-field misdeeds, it would be surprising if Goodell doesn't slap some sort of suspension on McKinnie. Goodell's made it his personal mission to preserve the league's United Way public image and he's come down hard on players who embarrass themselves and the league by showing up on The Smoking Gun website. Just as ask Pacman Jones. Or half of the Cincinnati Bengals roster.

Anyway, this situation is coming to a head and I think it can only turn out badly for McKinnie and the Vikings. Say what you want about McKinnie (and plenty of Vikings fans have) but he's much, much, much better than Artis Hicks – the guy who will likely replace him. A tackle combination of McKinnie and Ryan Cook protecting Tarvaris Jackson on the edges is more than adequate. A tackle combination of Hicks and Cook doing the same for any length of time is, well,... let's not go there. The Vikings rushing game also will be affected if McKinnie gets suspended. The Vikings run to the left side a lot and have gained most of their yardage the past two seasons on that side. Matt Birk and Steve Hutchinson had a lot to do with that. But so did McKinnie.

Best-case scenario for the Vikings here – McKinnie gets two games. Worst-case scenario – the commish drops the hammer on McKinnie and suspends him for eight or more games. You do not want to lose your starting left tackle (unless he's lousy, which McKinnie was not for most of '07) for any amount of time in the NFL. If Goodell does suspend McKinnie for a long time, it could potentially undo all the good work the Vikings front office accomplished this offseason.

Am I overstating things here? Please feel free to post a convincing argument that I am. I'm starting to develop large sweat stains around the armpits.

On Deck: Big plays and the Vikings

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The waiting is over

A lot of the stats on the Football Outsiders site bore me and some of the regular posters on their comments page are annoying (too many know-it-alls) but I do enjoy many of the sites articles – including this one.

I've been waiting weeks for the site's "Four Downs" post-draft feature on the NFC North and now it's here. But I am disappointed I don't get a clear sense who the author thinks is the favourite to win the division after reading the article. The Vikings are the last team mentioned in the piece. Does that mean they're the favourite? Also, there's lot of factual errors in the piece, including mentioning that the recently released/traded Erasmus James is still a Viking. This site could really use an editor sometimes.

But that's right, Erasmus James has indeed been traded – to Washington – for a conditional seventh round draft pick in 2009. Apparently Chilly's favourite trading partner, the Philadelphia Eagles, weren't interested. The Vikings get the pick if James sticks with Washington. They get nothing if he doesn't.

So that's nice. The Vikings two number one picks in the 2005 draft, James and Troy Williamson, eventually yielded us a sixth round pick in the 2008 draft and maybe a seventh rounder in the '09 draft. Of course, on the field, they yielded the Vikings nothing.

On Deck: Big plays and the Vikes

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Ahhh, the 2005 draft....

Friday night as I was watching the NFL Network's Rod Woodson argue that Tarvaris Jackson will face a serious challenge for the starting quarterback job from Gus Frerotte (No!!!!) and John David Booty this summer, I noticed the ticker at the bottom of my TV screen mentioning the Vikings had just released someone.

I figured it had to be one of those faceless undrafted rookie free agents. Instead, it was Erasmus James. So that's it. After three seasons, the guy who was supposed to be our starting right defensive end in 2007 is done with the Vikes. That also means both of the Vikings number one picks from their awful 2005 draft – James and Troy Williamson – have been booted out the door in the same year.

I won't bother to detail how bad that 2005 draft has turned out for Minnesota. You know. I know it. What's left to say? But just for fun, let's look at some of the players picked after James and Williamson in that draft. How much better would the Vikings be heading into 2008 if they had picked any of these guys instead of ole' Stone Hands and Wounded Knee?

Here's the honour roll: Demarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Derrick Johnson, Marcus Spears, Roddy White, Luis Castillo, Heath Miller, Mike Patterson, Logan Mankins and Lofa Tatupu.

What really hurts is the Vikings picked Williamson at number seven when Merriman and Ware were still available. That was kind of a big mistake. And some of the players picked after James at number 18 could have been useful as well. Like Miller, who would be the pass-catching tight end this offence needs. Or Castillo, who would have formed a formidable defensive tackle rotation with Kevin and Pat Williams. Or Mankins, who would have given us a boost along the offensive line. Or Tatupu, a young, dynamic, playmaking (and All-Pro) outside linebacker.

However, James, even though his knee is still messed up, will get another shot at playing in the NFL. And I expect Jacksonville may be the landing spot. Despite drafting Derrick Harvey, the Jaquars still have a need for pass rushing ends. And Mike Tice, who was partly responsible for drafting James in the first place, is now a Jaquars assistant and may lobby the Jags front office to sign him.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Queen Victoria, the Vikings and the importance of the passing game in the modern-day NFL

There are times when I wish Canada had removed the yoke of colonialism from its neck much like the Yanks did back in the day. This weekend was one of those times as Canadians celebrated the annual Victoria Day long weekend and I had to drive 11 hours from Yellowknife to visit the in-laws in northern Alberta.

I don’t mind the drive so much anymore. But I do mind the holiday. Why do we still have a statutory holiday for a long-dead British monarch who, as far as I can tell, made no real contribution to a nation that has evolved into the best on the planet? Is there no Canadian hero or heroine we could celebrate instead of Queen Victoria

I know this has absolutely nothing to do with the Minnesota Vikings. But because I spent roughly a week away from home and the Victoria Day long weekend was the justification for it – I’ve been without a computer for that long and unable to blog regularly. I felt I needed to tell you that.

But perhaps that’s not a bad thing. It’s May and as most NFL fans know, there’s little to blog about. However, an article by Michael Lombardi on SI’s website (brought to my attention by way of Pacifist Viking’s blog) interested me. In the piece Lombardi talks about the myth that teams need to establish the run early to win football games. He then goes on to point out that the Vikings, who ran the ball the most in the first half in 2007, failed to make the playoffs.

Lombardi’s main point is that in today’s NFL, the really successful teams are the ones that pass early in the first half, build up a lead, which sets up the running game in the second half, which often leads to wins.

Unfortunately, it seems Brad Childress didn’t recognize this when he was named the Vikings head coach in 2006. For he constructed his offence based around a wily veteran quarterback who would protect the ball, an All-World offensive guard signed away from the Seattle Seahawks and an unknown longtime caddy to Jamal Lewis signed away from the Baltimore Ravens.

We all know how this turned out. The Vikings couldn’t move the ball through the air because Brad Johnson’s arm was shot and the talent at wide receiver wouldn’t have cut it at the Division 1-AA level. Because the Vikings couldn’t pass the ball, it wasn’t long before they couldn’t run the ball – even with the addition of Steve Hutchinson and Chester Taylor. AND because the Vikings couldn’t do either, the offence couldn’t score points, which is how you win. The Vikings were very lucky to go 6-10 in 2006.

Heading into year three of the Childress regime, it seems he’s caught on. Just look at how the wide receiver position has been remodelled. In 2006 the Vikings receivers were Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson, Troy Williamson, Billy McMullen and Bethel Johnson. Four of those five players currently aren’t in the league and the fifth – Williamson – is headed in that direction.

Fast forward to 2008 and the Vikings wide receivers will likely be Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Bobby Wade, Robert Ferguson and Aundrae Allison. Not a bunch of budding Hall of Famers. But this crew is certainly a big step up from the dregs Childress trotted out there in his rookie season.

Of course, you also need somebody to get the ball to your receivers. In that area, Childress has changed the talent at his disposal too. Back in 2006 Johnson was the starter, Brooks Bollinger was the backup and Tarvaris Jackson was the quarterback of the future. As we head into the 2008 season, Jackson’s the starter, Gus Frerotte is the backup, Johnson’s in Dallas and Bollinger is three months away from losing his job to draftee John David Booty.

However, the problem at quarterback is that, unlike the changes made at wide receiver, the majority of Vikings fans aren’t optimistic the QB situation is much better than it was in 2006. And without better quarterback play, the Vikings offence in 2008 could be a lot like it was in 2007 and 2006 – running the ball early to establish the pass and often failing.

On Deck: The Vikings and big plays

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Predictions from a pessimist

I got into the blogging game a bit late last season, so I didn’t bother doing one of those prediction posts for the Vikings and the NFC North. However, since this post marks the 100th in the short existence of Grant’s Tomb and free agency and the draft have come and gone, I thought enough was known about the makeup of each team to forecast how I see the division shaping up in’08.

So here is a completely biased take on how the NFC North will turn out. By December – or maybe even earlier – we’ll be able to see how foolish my predictions were. But for now, I think they’re stellar. And just so you don’t get confused, the predictions and team summaries start from the bottom and work their way up.

Detroit Lions
For once, the Lions draft made a lot of sense. They didn’t draft a wide receiver in the first round. Instead, they did draft an offensive tackle (Gosder Cherilus), and then picked a linebacker (Jordan Dizon) in the second round and a running back (Kevin Smith) in the third round. But as much as these picks made sense and filled glaring needs, one must remember Matt Millen still runs the show around here. Is there any reason to think this rebuilding project will turn out any different than the other seven he’s overseen? The Lions are 31-81 since Millen became the Lions de facto GM in 2001.

And there are other problems. The Lions most talented player, DT Shaun Rogers was traded away, the offensive line is bad, and its best offensive weapon – wide receiver Roy Williams – reportedly pines for Dallas. Furthermore, if Smith can’t resuscitate the Lions running game, the offence will, once again, be one-dimensional. It’s hard to envision 2008 turning out well for the Lions.
Prediction: 6-10

Chicago Bears
Starting running back Cedric Benson’s fresh from a dust-up with Texas police, Rex Grossman could be the starting quarterback and franchise linebacker Brian Urlacher is upset he doesn’t have a new contract. 2008 is not starting off well for Da’ Bears.

But don’t buy-in to all those predictions that have Chicago finishing last in the division. The team may have no receivers to speak of, its running game isn’t great and having either Grossman or Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback isn’t very palatable. But the situation on offence isn’t much different than in 2005 when the team went 11-5 and won the division. Defence is what Da’ Bears are all about and the defence was not up to snuff much of 2007. That’s why Chicago struggled. Don’t expect that to happen again – especially with Tommie Harris playing for a new contract.
Prediction: 8-8

Green Bay Packers
Obviously, how Aaron Rodgers and/or Brian Brohm handle replacing The Great Satan will have serious implications on the Packers fortunes in 2008. But another important factor is greybeard starting corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson, who will be 34 and 32, respectively, when the 2008 season begins.

That’s kind of like having three 50-year-olds as your starting outfield. The Packers defence was pretty good last season (291 points allowed; tied for sixth-fewest in the NFL.) A big reason for that success was the ability of Woodson and Harris to play man-to-man press coverage (although some opponents saw it as more like maul-a-man coverage). If the duo loses a step and officials call the game tighter in ’08, the Packers will have a hard time duplicating its defensive success from last year. Throw in a potentially shaky quarterback situation and you’ve got the makings of a quick fall from grace for the Pack.
Prediction: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings
Okay. Take a deeeeeeeeep breath. Extinguish all thoughts of past Vikings collapses. Do away with any negative energy. Expunge all memories of previous Vikings seasons filled with promise that amounted to SFA.

There – I’m ready to do this.

The Vikings will win the NFC North this season and I don’t think this is a bad case of homeritis. Most football observers agree the Vikes made a lot of good moves this offseason. Plus, they already had Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, E.J. Henderson, Steve Hutchinson and the Williams twins. Jared Allen should give the pass rush some life. Bernard Berrian and the expected emergence of Sidney Rice should give the passing game some life. And if nothing else, the Vikings are due aren’t they? They haven’t won the division since 2000.

Some will say it can’t happen because Tarvaris Jackson sucks. But everyone in this division has quarterback issues. I’ve sort of convinced myself that Jackson’s play in the fourth quarter against Denver was a sign of better things to come – a kind of coming-of-age moment for him. Of course, if Jackson’s play ranges from mediocre to awful, the Vikings won’t win anything. But what the hell, I’m as optimistic about the upcoming season as a pessimist could be. So, the Vikings record will be (cringe) …
Prediction: 10-6

On Deck: Another year of big plays?

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Giddy Viking fans, please read

A busted Acer computer at home a week ago has sent Grant’s Tomb into a tailspin after two solid weeks of regular posts on the blog. But readers don’t care about that sort of thing. What they do care about is the Jared Allen trade and the impending Vikings domination of the NFC North.

Yes, I get the sense Minnesota Vikings fans are quite giddy these days. That happens when your favourite team is a major player in free agency and pulls off a blockbuster pre-draft trade – getting one of the league’s best defensive talents in the process.

So most fans (and the local and national football media) love the Allen trade. A lot of those same people (Like SI’s Peter King) figure the Vikes are a sure-fire playoff team. I like the Allen deal as well. But, as usual, I’m wary of any talk that it makes the Vikings the unquestioned favourite to win the NFC North and one the conference’s elite teams, provided, of course, that Tarvaris Jackson doesn’t muck it all up.

Can one guy really make that much of a difference? Can Jared Allen turn an 8-8 team into a 10-6, or – good golly, Miss Molly – an 11-5 or a 12-4 team? If you choose to keep scrolling down this page, you can read why I don’t think adding Allen is the cure-all for the Vikings pass rushing problems.

With Allen on board I’ve read that the Vikings now have the best defensive line in the NFL. Really? You mean the Vikings D-line is better than a New York Giants front line consisting of the likes of Michael Strahan (nine sacks), Fred Robbins (5.5 sacks), Justin Tuck (10 sacks) and Osi Umenyiora (13 sacks)?

Certainly Allen makes the Vikings D-line, which was already good (at least in the middle), better. But the argument that the double-teams Allen will routinely face makes Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison/Erasmus James better pass rushers seems suspect to me.

Edwards, Robison and James (for the 10 plays in ‘07 that he was healthy) couldn’t possibly get any more man-on-man matchups than they did last season. The truth is, they couldn’t get to the quarterback last year because they weren’t better than the offensive lineman blocking them often enough. It had nothing to do with facing double teams all the time. Opponents didn’t have to double-team Edwards or Robison much to stop them. And acquiring Allen won’t change that. Those guys simply need to become better players.

The same holds true for Kevin Williams, at least when we’re talking about applying pressure on the quarterback. Last year he made the Pro Bowl but he also finished with just three sacks. That was a career low. Diehard fans will have also noticed his sack totals have been going steadily downward since 2005. Williams is still a tremendous athlete – able to do things, like intercept passes and return them for touchdowns – that few players his size can do. But on passing downs last season I saw many plays where he was single-blocked and still couldn’t get to the quarterback. Often he seemed to give up after a couple of seconds of bull rushing and resort to just getting his hands up to deflect passes.

Again, from what I’ve been reading the consensus is Allen’s presence will mean less double teams for Williams and thus, more sacks for Williams. But check out the Vikings roster and the players that made up the Minnesota defensive line in 2004 when Williams had a career-best 11.5 sacks. It’s hard to believe Williams faced less double teams then than he did it ’07. If anything, the D-line had more talent last season than it had in 2004. He should have been seeing, at the most, the same amount of double-teams as in 2004. I don’t know where the Kevin Williams that sacked 11.5 quarterbacks has gone. But I wish he’d come back. That kind of player would make the Vikings defensive line the NFL's finest. I’m not sold on the fact that Allen playing next to him is going to turn him into the sack machine he once was.

In short, Allen will get his. That should improve the Vikings pass rush by itself. But for this defensive line to turn into some kind of latter day version of the Purple People Eaters perhaps we should be concentrating less on what Allen can do for his new D-line teammates and more on what his D-Line teammates can do for him and the team’s pass rushing fortunes.

On Deck: Inventory time in the NFC North