Thursday, July 31, 2008

Hypothetically speaking

We don't know yet where you-know-who is going to end up. But assuming The Great Satan did end up in Minnesota (which, unbelieveably, is looking like a distinct possibility) where does that leave the other quarterbacks currently on the Vikings roster?

Up until the Brett Favre unretirement story hit, the order seemed pretty clear. Tarvaris Jackson was the starter, Gus Frerotte was the veteran insurance policy and John David Booty and Brooks Bollinger would battle for the third quarterback spot, with Booty winning it because, well, he's not Brooks Bollinger.

But if the Vikings somehow acquire Favre, that changes things a wee bit ( except for Bollinger, who's gone regardless). Obviously, Favre is your starter. But with the Vikings unlikely to carry four QB's, what do you do with the rest of these guys?

There are three ways the Vikings could go.

1. Keep both Jackson and Frerotte and cut Booty. Then try to stash Booty on the practice squad.

2. Keep Jackson as the backup. Release Frerotte. Keep Booty as the developmental third quarterback.

3. Trade Jackson for a second-day draft pick. Keep Frerotte as Favre's veteran caddy. Booty sticks as the third QB.

Option #1 seems the best route at first glance. Keeping both Jackson and Frerotte gives the Vikings three quarterbacks with substantial NFL experience on the roster. But the Vikings would surely lose Booty, who is a well-known name from his college days at USC that some NFL team will snatch up if the Vikings release him. And with Iron Man Favre starting, keeping both Frerotte and Jackson seems a needless luxury because neither is going to play. Also, how happy is either Frerotte or Jackson going to be when one of them becomes the third QB?

The other options have their pros and cons as well. With option #2, the Vikings keep two young QB's with potential on their roster who would be ready to replace Favre in two years when he retires – or so we assume. The cons are that Jackson's shaky performance in 2007 and thus far in training camp signals he's not your best backup option in case Favre does go down. And by releasing Frerotte, the Vikings may be throwing away their second-best quarterback option for the sake of keeping two young players who may never cut it in the NFL.

As for option #3, the pros are the Vikings get at least one draft pick back that they may have had to give up to acquire Favre from Green Bay. They also keep Frerotte's experience on the roster. The cons are they give up on Jackson too early, he blossoms with another organization, Booty doesn't blossom with the Vikings and after the 2009 season the Vikes are back to square one at quarterback.

If this Favre-to-the-Vikings thing actually happens – and it's still a big if – I'm hoping Vikings head coach Brad Childress goes with option #2. But this could all be needless speculation. There's been no word that the Vikings are even interested in Favre and the latest news is he might now be open to being traded to the New York Jets.

Whatever.

On Deck: Is there an end in sight?

Sunday, July 27, 2008

It's July, people

Regular readers of Football Outsiders will know I stole a line from a recent article by Mike Tanier and Doug Farrar for my headline above. But I also chose those words because it's so true.

July is a difficult time to blog about your favourite NFL team. Training camp rosters have been set for over two months and every team's strengths and weaknesses have been written about and dissected a hundred times over. And with the opening of training camps around the NFL every squad thinks it's a Super Bowl contender and every player is either new and improved or poised for a career year.

Kind of like Vikings starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. We've all heard how hard he's worked this offseason to improve. Head coach Brad Childress has assured us Jackson is right where he needs to be to take the Vikings to the playoffs. But if you read this Star-Tribune post by Judd Zulgad about Jackson on its Access Vikings blog you may start to wonder if Chilly's been blowing smoke up our asses. Off-the-mark passes. Near interceptions mixed in with the odd good throw. That sure sounds like the Tarvaris Jackson we saw too many times last season.

Too early to lose faith in T-Jack, I suppose, but sobering observations from Zulgad nonetheless.

The long and winding road to unretirement
Good story by ESPN's Chris Mortensen on the Favre situation. Regardless of where Captain America ends up (and it won't be the Twin Cities), Favre's admitting that he talked to both Childress and Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell about his desire to play again could be bad news for the Vikings in the tampering charge the Packers have filed against them.

Favre insists the Chilly and Bevell did not try to convince him to play for the Vikings and unretire. But the optics are bad here. Commissioner Roger Goodell could very well decide to dock the Vikings a draft pick for stupidity. Favre might be buddies with both Bevell and Childress but in a case like this, the Vikings coaches should have made their conversations with Favre brief. For opposing coaches from a division rival of the Packers to serve as counsel to Favre in a matter like this smells fishy at best. Goodell may want to make an example of the Vikings here lest other coaches try this tactic with a key player from an opposing team in the future.

Perhaps this new information means Goodell won't take a first-day draft pick away from the Vikings and award it to the Pack. But that doesn't mean the Vikes will go unpunished.

On Deck: Linebackers and Defensive backs

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Odds and ends (while you wait for the next update in the Favre saga)

Since Antoine Winfield signed on with the Vikings in 2004 he's been admired by Vikings fans not so much for his coverage abilities – which aren't too shabby either – but for his ferocious tackling. Listed at five-foot-nine and 180 pounds, Winfield's been regarded as the best tackling cornerback there is by people who follow the purple on a regular basis.

Of course we're biased in this area because we're Vikings fans. But Football Outsiders posted a little analysis in its "Extra Points" section this week showing that according to its numbers, Antoine Winfield was indeed the best tackling cornerback in the NFL when it came to playing the run in 2007.

But Winfield earned his title while playing in just 10 games – a career low for him – and one wonders if, at age 31, the former Buffalo Bill and Ohio State Buckeye's body is starting to betray him after nine seasons of throwing his compact frame at men who outweigh him by 30 or more pounds on a regular basis.

If Winfield's body continues to break down in 2008, that's not a good development for the Vikings, particularly its run defence. Pat and Kevin Williams get a lot of the credit for the Vikings historic stinginess against the run the past two seasons. But I think Winfield's played an important (and overlooked) part in that effort as well. Winfield simply doesn't miss when he tries to tackle an opposing ball carrier and his ability to knife into the play and take down running backs for little or no gain when they run outside on his side of the field is an valuable skill.

It's certainly one his replacement last season – Marcus McCauley – was not physical enough or skilled enough to duplicate. And remember that that during the shutout loss to Green Bay and the overtime loss to Denver, the Packers Ryan Grant and the Broncos Selvin Young enjoyed great success running outside on the Vikings and away from the middle where the Williams boys set up shop. I don't think it's any coincidence that they enjoyed that success with Winfield out of the lineup nursing injuries.

Stay well in '08 Antoine. Stay well.

Oh, oh. Vikings starting left defensive end Ray Edwards is on the physically unable to perform list with a back injury. This could be nothing or it could be something. Vikings head coach Brad Childress doesn't sound all that worried about it but I don't view it as a great development. Kenechi Udeze is already done for the year. If Edwards back continues to give him mucho problems, then we're potentially looking at a lot of Jayme Mitchell at left end. Now I don't mind Mitchell. But I'm also not comfortable with him getting 60 per cent (or more) of the reps at that position. I like how Edwards progressed in his second season with the Vikings and I had him mentally pencilled in for eight or nine sacks in 2008.

Get well Ray. Get well.

Finally, I spotted a picture on the Star-Tribune website today of Chilly sporting a goatee instead of his trademark 'stash. This is a positive development as it makes him look less like Gerald McRaney.

I must also say that after reading numerous Vikings stories this offseason and watching a few videos online with snippets of the Chillster in them, our head coach appears more relaxed, more at ease with the demands of the job and more comfortable in his own skin.

I have no idea if this will make him a better coach or lead to more success on the field. But somehow I believe if he's not sweating the small stuff – stuff that has nothing to do with how the team is performing during practices and games – Childress and the Vikings will be better for it.

Now, about those phone calls from Brett...

On Deck: Linebackers and cornerbacks

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

What if sports

If you're like me, the news that Washington acquired defensive end Jason Taylor this week had you thinking "what if" – as in what if the Minnesota Vikings had traded for Taylor instead.

While some might have considered landing Taylor overkill after the Vikings traded for another high-priced defensive end in Jared Allen this spring, the team missed an opportunity to acquire an impact player at a position with few of them for a relatively modest price. Washington gave up a second round pick in the 2009 draft and a sixth round pick in 2010 to acquire Taylor.

Perhaps the Vikings were put off by Taylor's age (he'll be 34 on Sept. 1), his contract (he's owed $16-million in the last two years of his deal) or his commitment to the game (he says he only wants to play one more season.)

However, for a team that has been acting the entire offseason like it has Super Bowl aspirations, Taylor would have been a worthwhile gamble. Taylor might be nearing his mid-30s but he hasn’t been showing his age on the field. He recorded 11 sacks in 2007 playing for a 1-16 Dolphins team whose other top pass rushing threat was linebacker Joey Porter. And playing for an alleged playoff/Super Bowl contender like the Vikes probably could convince Taylor to hold off on any retirement plans until his contract runs out in 2010. As for any cap issues that might arise from taking on Taylor's $8-million salary, the Vikings have shown themselves to be skilled at manipulating the cap when it’s necessary.

Here's why trading for Taylor would have been another coup for the Vikings.

1. He's still playing at a high level: 11 sacks in 2007 and 13.5 in 2006, roughly the same amount of tackles both seasons and he hasn't missed a game since 1999. How scary is this defensive line with both Allen and Taylor rushing opposing quarterbacks from the edges?

2. He improves the D-line depth: As we all know, football is a brutally physical sport. Injuries occur. Frequently. With Taylor in purple the Vikings would be as bulletproof as you can be at defensive end. Allen goes down? No problem. (Well, it would be a problem but I think you see where I’m going with this.) The Vikes still have Taylor applying constant pressure on opposing QB's. The same holds true if Taylor gets hurt. You still have Allen getting after the quarterback.

Plus, adding Taylor allows the team to put Ray Edwards in a backup role. With Edwards, Brian Robison and Jayme Mitchell in reserve, the Vikings have a nice rotation of defensive ends that they can throw at opposing offences, giving Allen and (especially) Taylor frequent rests that will keep them fresh during games and throughout a long, physical NFL season.

3. He would have improved our pass defence: When quarterbacks don't have time to throw they tend to launch bad passes. Bad passes often end up incomplete or get intercepted. I'm betting Taylor and Allen would have caused opposing quarterbacks to throw many bad passes in '08, which would be welcomed by the likes of Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin and Marcus McCauley and thousands of Vikings fans everywhere.

Anyway, it didn't happen and Taylor’s now playing for another NFC team that the Vikings might just meet in the playoffs. There’s been no indication the Vikings were ever interested in Taylor. What gives? Perhaps the real sticking point was this: the Vikings, having given up three early draft picks in April to land Allen, didn't want to give up anymore to get a player with a short shelf life.

But if that was the clincher, it shouldn't have been. The Vikings could easily get that second round pick back next April through some draft-day trade. As for a sixth-round pick in 2010, what, in recent history, have the Vikings ever done with their sixth-round picks anyway?

The Vikings should have parted with a couple of draft picks to get Taylor – unless management is saving them for a Brett Favre trade.

Monday, July 21, 2008

I've got issues

The Vikings start training camp on Friday and so begins the dreams of Super Bowls dancing in the heads of Vikings fans.

But as much as every team starts the 2008 season with a blank slate, each team also has issues that need to be resolved. Below you'll find a rundown of some the burning issues for the Vikings as training camp kicks off.

Health: Forget about quarterback play, whether Bernard Berrian really is a number one receiver or if Jared Allen can stay on the wagon, health is the top issue for the Vikings.

Not that it's an issue now. Everyone's healthy. But once the players start hitting each other during live drills and preseason games are played against opponents with cruel intentions, that's going to change. If, for example, an E.J. Henderson, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams or Steve Hutchinson gets hurt before the season starts and misses significant time as a result, the Vikings playoffs hopes plummet.

Tarvaris Jackson: No surprise here. The Vikes didn't make the playoffs last year when Jackson threw for less than 2,000 yards and had more interceptions than touchdown passes as the starting quarterback. And they won't make the playoffs this season if Jackson puts up similar numbers.

Thus, much improvement is needed from Jackson. So far, the coaching staff is raving about his progress this offseason and his teammates are saying all the right things about him. But when the games start for real and teams start blitzing Jackson on passing downs, do the jump passes reappear?

Bryant McKinnie's status: Still no word from the NFL on what kind of suspension our starting left tackle has earned for his brawling, night-clubbing ways. If Roger Goodell suspends McKinnie for more than two games (which is likely) that's a significant blow to the Vikings.

It's not that McKinnie is Jonathan Ogden, it's more a case of who the Vikings have to replace him if he's gone for a large portion of the 2008 season. Would you feel comfortable if Artis Hicks, Chase Johnson or Drew Radovich were protecting Jackson's blind side for any length of time?

Sidney Rice's development: I liked just about everything I saw out of Rice last season – he's tall, has nice hands, runs crisp routes and he was a deep threat to boot. The only thing I didn't like was how little the Vikings threw him the ball.

Because I don't expect Bernard Berrian to be an 80-catch, 1,300-yard guy (65 and 1,000 is more like it), it's important Rice, in his second year, becomes wide receiver 1B to Berrian's 1A. If Rice catches 50-60 passes for 800-900 yards and doubles his four-touchdown output from last year and Berrian posts the aforementioned numbers, the Vikings offence will be one dimensional no more.

Visanthe Shiancoe's development: Can a guy entering his sixth NFL season still be developing? The Vikings hope so in Shiancoe's case. The squad's starting tight end was as brutal as brutal could be in his first season with the Vikings in '07, flashing only bad hands and a knack for dropping touchdown passes.

The word out of the Vikings recent OTA's was Shiancoe was catching everything and looked like a new man this spring. Vikings fans can only pray it's true. A tight end who can actually get open and catch the football would be a valuable security blanket for jumpy Tarvaris Jackson. Shiancoe needs to be that guy because Jim Kleinsasser and Jeff Dugan are offensive guards masquerading as tight ends.

On Deck: What might have been

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Again with the Klingons....

I know many Vikings fans wish this story would die but you've got to admit it's hard to look away at this point. Even Pacifist Viking is linking to Favre stories after writing that he didn't care about the whole sordid situation last week.

As for me, I love it. Unknowingly, Favre has done the Vikings a great service here. Aaron Rodgers is going to be an absolute basket case on opening night at Lambeau Field and he'll be facing a team that will be as fired up as a squad could possibly be thanks to these tampering charges from the Packers.

As always, feel free to comment.

On Deck: Contract talk

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

While I was out

You just never know what kind of news will emerge while you’ve lapsed into summer non-blogging mode. And the Brett Favre-wants-to-play-again-and-the-Minnesota-Vikings-might-be-interested chatter fits nicely into that category.

Ignoring the fact that Green Bay has said it won’t release Favre and also ignoring the reality that the Pack would never trade him to the Vikings, such a move, if it ever were to happen, makes a lot of sense for a Minnesota team that, as all the football writers have been telling us this offseason, is in a “win-now” mode.

But winning now will require decent (at the very worst) quarterback play. As the 2008 Minnesota Vikings are currently constructed, fans can’t be sure that’s what they will be getting. Starter Tarvaris Jackson has doubters in every corner of Vikings fandom. Backup Gus Frerotte is an aging veteran with a big arm but very, very, very questionable decision-making skills. Fifth-round draft pick John David Booty has yet to take a snap in pro football and Brooks Bollinger is dead man walking. The talent at quarterback is what is holding this team back from a 1998-type season.

It would be difficult for Favre to duplicate his 2007 season (4,155 yards, 28 touchdowns, 66.5 completion percentage and only 15 interceptions) throwing to the Vikings stable of wide receivers. But Favre wouldn't have to be as good as he was in 2007 to take this Minnesota team to the playoffs. What would a season of, say, 3,300 yards, 18 touchdowns and 16 or so interceptions from Favre mean to a Vikes team featuring a running back tandem of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor? Probably enough to get the Vikings into the playoffs and even make them an actual Super Bowl threat.

But what would Favre wearing a Vikings jersey mean to the team’s fans? Could the diehards really feel good about their team with Brett Favre at the helm? It's not like the Vikings are shy about taking talent from other teams – 10 of its prospective 22 starters in 2008 were signed away from other teams or acquired in trades. However, the quarterback position is different. The QB is almost always the man, the focal point, the lightening rod, etc., etc. After years of hoping Favre would break his neck, if he is suddenly leading the Vikings to an NFC North title and playoffs wins and a Super Bowl appearance, could Vikings fans really get behind that? Could they really cheer for that? Could they truly enjoy it? I’m not sure they could.

I write that because the recent Favre-as-a-Viking talk got me thinking about the 1993 season. That was the season Jim McMahon was the Vikings starting quarterback. The Vikes went 9-7 and made the playoffs that year but the sight of Jimmy Mac – the cocky public face of the '85 Chicago Bears – wearing a Vikings uniform failed to move me. Everytime I watched him behind centre for the Vikings, all I could see was McMahon in his Bears jersey with a cigar stuck in his mouth. The only time I’ve cared less for a Vikings team was the lost Les Steckel year.

I suspect if Favre somehow did end up in Minnesota, I’d have similar emotions and so would many Vikings fans. Despite the winning that would follow, the excitement, the passion we feel every year cheering for the Vikings would be lost. That’s not something I would want to go away.

On Deck: Contract talk