Friday, March 06, 2009

It's the choices you make in life

While debating the merits of the Vikings trading a fourth-round draft pick for Sage Rosenfels and mourning over an alleged three-way deal that would have sent Jay Cutler to the Vikings that fell through, let’s not forget the 2006 offseason, where a series of personnel decisions put the team in quarterback purgatory it's being trying to get out of ever since.

The first decision concerned Drew Brees. He was a free agent in 2006 but was coming off a serious shoulder injury. He wanted to re-sign with San Diego. But the Chargers decided to go with Philip Rivers instead. So Brees landed with the New Orleans Saints, a team coming off a 3-13 season. The Vikings, who were 9-7 in 2005 and had 37-year-old Brad Johnson and a disenchanted Daunte Culpepper on the roster, showed no interest in Brees, even though it’s vice-president of player personnel at the time, Fran Foley, had worked in the Chargers front office during Brees's time there.

The second decision concerned Jay Cutler. Before the 2006 draft, there was talk new head coach Brad Childress was hot for Cutler (I also remember reading he liked Brodie Croyle) and the Vikings might trade up in the first round to get him.

The Vikings chose not to do this. Instead, Minnesota watched Denver work a trade with St. Louis to select Cutler with the 11th overall pick (the Rams chose defensive back Tye Hill, something I’m sure they regret now). The Vikings got their own “quarterback of the future”, Tarvaris Jackson, with the last pick in the second round.

Before I criticize the Vikings too much, let's be clear here – there were significant risks in acquiring any of the three players mentioned above.

Brees was a risk because no one was sure if he could throw the ball as well as he once had after tearing his labrum and partially tearing his rotator cuff on his right throwing shoulder. Cutler was a risk because he was a talented but unproven rookie. And Jackson was a risk because he was also a talented but unproven rookie – with the added risk that he had played against lesser competition than Cutler.

So all three were risks. It's just that the Vikings chose to take the player who was the biggest risk. And that risk has not paid off, which is why, every year since, the team has traded draft picks for career backups like Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb and now Sage Rosenfels.

Drafting
Among the free agents the Vikings have publicly pursued, the team has gone one-for-three so far.

A .333 batting average is great in baseball. It’s less great when you’re going after free agents in football and you have $32-million in cap space to throw at them and you’ve got guys like Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson already on your team and you just went 10-6 and won a division title, which should make it easier to entice free agents to sign here.

But perhaps it’s for the best. The 2009 free agent class is really weak and it might not be any stronger next year or the year after or the year after that. Teams have lots of cap space now and most (except Washington) have learned how to work the cap and stay well under it. They are signing their own players – the ones they really want to keep – before they ever get a chance to hit the free market.

If I were Zygi Wilf, I’d view this year’s free agent pool as a sign of the times and start investing heavily in my scouting department. If another team has a scout who’s got an uncanny talent at unearthing NFL talent at the college level, I’d offer him more money – a lot more money – to work for me. Then I'd hire 10 more just like him. I’d fill my scouting department with the best and brightest football minds I could find. I’d pay them well and make them feel valued.

And I’d do that because if free agency continues to go the way it’s going, improving a team is going to get a lot harder. Free agency won’t offer a quick fix, where you can throw money at roster problems and sign players with established track records from other teams. The quantity of good players isn't there. Building through the draft and finding diamonds in the rough among college free agents will be more important than ever.

Despite what some Vikings fans will tell you, the team has not drafted well the past decade. That’s forced the Vikes to patch holes through free agency. But because it’s looking like that won’t be an option any longer, now is the time for Wilf to put an emphasis on college scouting like no other team in the NFL.

Terrell Owens
And finally, for anyone who thinks Terrell Owens might be a good fit with the Vikings, I bring you this post from Football Outsiders. Although the thought that Childress and Owens would team up again is laughable anyway.

Free agency update
The Vikings are now two-for-four in free agency. They have re-signed Heath Farwell.

2 comments:

Luft Krigare said...

Your idea for getting the best scouts makes the best sense I've heard this entire offseason.

Thanks for the link on the T.O. issue. I like it better than my own hypothesizing that the Vikes just might sign him, thinking George Stewart can mentor and be a father figure to him again along with the false feeling towards Chilly. I wondered if absence between Chilly and T.O. made their hearts grow fonder?

DC said...

Luft:

Revamping the scouting department is easier written than done because maybe some guys wouldn't move even if offered a pay raise or they couldn't get out of a contract. But I'd really love to see the Viings get ahead of the curve in this area. Try a different approach. Start using Oakland A's Moneyball-like stats to value football players. Hire more scouts and better scouts than any other team in the league. Do whatever you can to make the most of the NFL draft.

And Owens is NEVER coming to the Vikings. Neither Childress nor Owens' personalties have changed since they worked together in Philly. Rick Spielman shot down the idea in an interview yesterday also.