Friday's football post

Vikings – 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are an excellent example why it’s a fool’s errand to look at your favourite team’s upcoming schedule in the offseason and start penciling in wins and losses.

Of course, I do it, because I can’t help myself sometimes. But what appeared like a relatively easy win for the Vikings in April looks a bit tougher now. The 49ers are 2-0, with one of those wins coming on the road against the Super Bowl runner-ups. I suspect they are coming into the Metrodome feeling good about themselves and relishing a chance to upset another 2008 playoff team with high expectations for 2009.

And here’s something I didn’t know until Thursday – the 49ers have won six of their last seven games under Samurai Mike’s leadership. We have to consider that San Francisco might be a good team now that Mike Singletary is the head coach.

However, if the Vikings really are a Super Bowl contender, this is the kind of squad they should beat comfortably in a home opener. The 49ers defence can be stout. But Shaun Hill, an ex-Viking who puts the “M” in mediocre, leads the offence. Hill’s not terrible. But it would be a stretch to say he’s good and it’s difficult to picture this Vikings defence allowing Hill to make enough plays with his arm to beat them – especially when his best receiver is 37-year-old Issac Bruce. The 49ers also have pass protection issues. Hill’s been sacked eight times in two games. Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams are looking forward to this one.

Of course, the 49ers won’t want to pass much. You may have heard about Frank Gore and his 207-yard performance against Seattle last week. And you know the Vikings have looked surprisingly vulnerable against the run in their two wins. I suspect San Francisco will test the Vikings early and use Gore often. Which they should – he is their best offensive player.

Still, Gore is no Superman. Two weeks ago against Arizona, he rushed for 30 yards on 20 carries. So if the Vikings defence tackles well and plays up to their capabilities, I can’t see Gore making enough big plays to be a difference-maker that he has to be. And if he can’t do it, who else on the 49ers can? Josh Morgan? Vernon Davis? Michael Spurlock?

Two years ago, the Vikings beat San Francisco on the road 27-7. It was a weird game. Adrian Peterson averaged 0.2 yards per carry. Kevin Williams intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown. The 49ers fumbled the ball six times. Robert Ferguson was the Vikings leading receiver. Tarvaris Jackson played well.

This time, I expect the Vikings to win again and the score to be similar to what it was in 2007. But I also expect this one to go a bit more according to script. Peterson will be a factor. Brett Favre will be quietly effective, completing a high percentage of short passes that keep the chains moving. And I expect Jared Allen and the gang to have Hill curled up in a fetal position by the fourth quarter.

Vikings 28 – 49ers 7

We’re number 15!
It’s great to be the best at something. And for the past three seasons I’ve been proud the Vikings were number one in run defence.

But two games into the 2009 season and my football universe has been turned upside down. The Vikings run D is just average (15th overall, although I’m sure you knew that.) What gives?

Look, I’m just a schmuck with a blog. I really don’t know. But what concerns me is I’m not noticing Pat Williams doing Pat Williams things often enough – like busting through a double-team and nailing a ball carrier for a loss.

Williams will turn 38 on October 24. Is he starting to show his age? It’s too early to make that call after two games. But if his play is declining rapidly, we might have to get used to a Vikings run defence that is closer to being average than it is to being outstanding.

Confidence
I might be imagining this, but during the Lions game last week, every time Fox cameras focused on the Vike’s sidelines, it seemed like they caught Minnesota players and the coaching staff either laughing, smiling or looking surprisingly relaxed – and this was even when the game was close.

I guess playing Detroit has a way of doing that to you. However, I also think the addition of Favre has made the Vikings a more confident team. But will the Vikings win more games this year compared to past years just because they believe in themselves now that they’ve got a Hall of Fame quarterback playing for them –even one that is past his prime?

I think they can. Just about any book I’ve read about coaching says that players perform better when they have positive attitudes, when they believe they will be successful. I don’t think recent Viking teams have always believed they would be successful, especially on the road.

I can think of a number of Viking teams this decade that would have imploded on the road after, say, a punt return for a touchdown gives the home team a late first half lead. But this Vikings team hasn’t imploded when faced with some adversity. I think having Favre on the team has a lot to do with that. It’s an encouraging sign.

Super Freak
I really dislike it when a gifted athlete is referred to as a freak. I think the word gets overused in sports. I get annoyed whenever I hear it.

However, if Adrian Peterson was put on a planet of freaks, I think even the freaks would describe Peterson as a freak – that’s how freakish his athletic talents are. And I wouldn't mind a bit.

That was driven home to me again this week after watching highlights of some of Peterson’s more impressive runs against Detroit on NFL.com. There weren’t even any holes for Peterson to run through in most of these clips. It’s almost all AP, bouncing off a wall of blockers and defenders, reversing his direction, then juking, outrunning (and running over) guys. He may be the best Viking of all time. We’re lucky to be watching him.

Now Adrian, go rip up San Francisco on Sunday, you freak.