Friday's football post

Vikings – Steelers
What kind of world do we live in where a Minnesota Vikings team coached by Brad Childress has an offence that is performing better than its defence?

Yes, the 2009 season has not gone quite as I expected it would. While I did expect the Vikings to be at least 5-1 at this point, what I didn’t expect was how the team has gotten there. The Vikes offence has been way better than I expected it to be and the team is averaging 31.5 points per game. Meanwhile the defence – particularly the pass defence – is looking ordinary and was greatly responsible for turning what should have been two comfortable wins against Green Bay and Baltimore into nail biters.

Now the Vikings face the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road this Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger is completing 72.5 per cent of his passes and leads the league in passing yardage. Hines Ward is leading the league in receiving yards with 599. Antoine Winfield probably won’t play because of a sprained ankle. Not good.

But there’s plenty for the Steelers fans to worry about as well. Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen and Brett Favre are three names and I could go on. After being unable to watch the Vikings play the previous two weeks, I am really, really looking forward to watching this one. Really.

Here is what worries me and what heartens me about this tough game for the Vikings.

What worries me about this game

Heinz Field: A tough place for visiting teams to play. Bad footing. Swirling winds. Noisy fans. The field was re-sodded this week. That could make footing tricky for the players. And the player who might be most affected by it is kicker Ryan Longwell. The former Packer is very dependable kicking from any distance on field goals. He’s 11-12 this season in field goal attempts and the Vikings depend on him to turn those attempts into three points.

But he’s not used to kicking on Heinz Field’s tricky turf. A slip or a bad foot plant on the re-sodded Heinz Field turf could lead to a crucial miss of a field goal or two that we’re used to Longwell making. And a three point or six point swing could be huge in this game.

Benny Sapp: Antoine Winfield is listed as doubtful for this game. It’s unlikely he’ll play and it looks like nickel back Sapp will start in his place. Winfield is a big loss because of his value both in defending the run and the pass. When teams run on the Vikings, Winfield prevents numerous positive gains with his tackling. When teams pass on the Vikings, Winfield isn’t a shutdown corner opposing teams avoid throwing at, but he does make plays on the ball and when receivers catch the ball on him, there are no yards after the catch. Winfield takes them down where they stand. Quickly.

But with Winfield out, not only will teams complete more balls against a replacement like Sapp, but the completions they get will go for longer gains because the replacement can’t tackle as well as Winfield. And let’s not even think about what Karl Paymah is incapable of getting lots of reps as the nickel back. Might be a good time to throw rookie Asher Allen into the fire.

Ben Roethlisberger’s mobility: Mobile quarterbacks give everyone problems. But Roethlisberger ability to move around in the pocket, avoid pass rushers, wait for his receivers to get open and then complete passes is unreal. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information department, Big Ben has a 156.3 passer rating on pass attempts outside the pocket (a perfect rating is 158.3.)There will be plenty of times on Sunday when we will be frustrated seeing Roethlisberger escapes a sack and completes a pass against the Vikings.

What heartens me about this game

Brett Favre’s play on third downs: The Vikings have converted 39 of 84 third down plays into first downs after six games – a conversion rate of 46.4 per cent. Only two teams in the NFL have done it better (Miami is surprisingly #1 at 56 per cent, Indy is #2 at 50.8) and I have to believe this is a huge improvement over what the Vikings did last year in these situations (although I haven’t looked it up.) I also have to think Favre’s a major reason for the improvement.

The Vikings simply haven’t had a quarterback who was capable of doing the things Favre does – like read defensive coverages quickly, recognize blitzes, deliver the ball with zip and accuracy into tight spots – in some time. Third down is no longer a down to be feared for the Vikings offence and Favre’s proficiency is keeping drives alive and leading to more points. The Steelers defence will have to succeed where others have failed in this area to win this game.

A deep receiving corps: While this has a lot to do with Favre, it’s worth pointing out the Vikings have six players with at least 14 catches and four with at least 20. There is no one receiver opponents can focus on to stop the Vikings passing game. The Steelers cannot cover them all and Favre will find whomever is open. As long as Favre has enough time to throw on Sunday, the Vikings should be able to move the ball and produce points.

Familiarity playing against the 3-4: When the 2009 schedule was announced I was concerned about how the Vikings would handle Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defence, with it’s active linebackers and it’s tendency to blitz from all angles. But including pre-season games, the Vikings have faced six teams who play the 3-4 and they’ve generally handled it pretty well.

Plus, Favre’s been there and done that. He’s not going to get terribly confused by whatever Dick LeBeau and the Steelers throw at him. The Vikings offensive line’s ability to pick up blitzes always concerns me, but this is not a matchup I fear anymore. I’m concerned (especially with Troy Polamalu back in the lineup) but not fearful.

Other stuff

We’ve all heard how the Vikings have taken advantage of a weak early schedule to race out to an undefeated record. I won’t dispute that, but consider the Steelers four wins have come against Tennessee (0-6), Detroit (1-5), Cleveland (1-5) and San Diego (2-3.) Let’s not overestimate how good Pittsburgh really is.

Normally, I like to let reason guide my predictions. But in a season where Brett Favre is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, I think reason goes out the window. So while I’d normally expect the Steelers to win this one at home, my hunch is the Vikings will continue to roll and the Vikings defence will play its best game of the season and for the first time in 2009, be the key factor in a Vikings win – shutting down a potent Pittsburgh offence even when it appears they shouldn’t.

Vikings 27 – Steelers 20