Reflections on Favre

So Brett Favre's agent Bus Cook says his client won't be playing in 2009.

But for now, let's just assume there is still a possibility Favre could change his mind. Here are a few recent opinions on the Favre-to-Minnesota speculation.

Star-Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse thinks Favre will make another comeback and play for the Vikings. He thinks it's a bad move for the Vikes.

The National Football Post's Matt Bowen (a former player and teammate of Favre) thinks Favre will make another comeback and play for the Vikings. He thinks it would be a good move for the Vikes.

Finally, the National Football Post's Andrew Brandt (who worked in the Green Bay front office during the Favre years) doesn't think Favre will make a comeback. He thinks that's a good move for Favre.

Over the next week or so, I think Brad Childress should make a strong statement that the Vikings are not interested in Brett Favre – retired or unretired. If they wanted to get their quarterback of the future, they should have done what was necessary to trade for Jay Cutler. I don't think the 2009 Brett Favre gets the Vikings to an NFC Championship game, let alone a Super Bowl.

But then Bowen writes this in his post:
"as much as we still want to say Favre can no longer play football, he’s better than anyone on the Vikings’ roster. Sage Rosenfels? Tarvaris Jackson? I want someone — anyone — to come up with an argument why those two names are better than Brett Favre now, or three years for now, because we know they aren’t."

And Bowen's right – I can't make an argument (with a straight face) that Jackson or Rosenfels are better than a 40-year-old Favre. I think Rosenfels might be, but it's far from a sure thing, and if the goal of every team is to improve its talent level at every position it possibly can during the off-season, maybe signing Favre wouldn't be such a bad idea.

Will it never end?

Brett Favre retires and is finally released by the New York Jets. So Viking beat writer Judd Zulgad can't help but speculate, and speculate some more, that maybe Favre isn't done just yet and that the Vikings addition of Percy Harvin might make him yearn to play for the Vikings even more in 2009.

Discuss this at length if you dare.

Grading the Vikings draft

Ha ha. Not a chance. Everyone knows grading drafts is uncool.

But in trying to describe the Vikings draft this weekend, I’m reminded of an early episode from Curb Your Enthusiam (which is odd, because I rarely watch the show) where Larry David is asked for his opinion on something or another, and clearly not impressed, replies, “I was non-plussed – is that the right word?”

And that’s sort of how I feel about the Vikings 2009 draft class right now. I’m non-plussed. The big downer for me was the Vikings passing on one of the elite offensive tackles in the draft (Michael Oher) and choosing a wide receiver (Percy Harvin) from a school that doesn’t produce good wide receivers, who might have a drug problem and who strikes me as a gimmick player that Brad Childress will not be able to find gimmicks for.

I like the selection of Philip Loadholt in the second round, but after that it’s hard to get too excited about what the Vikes did. Is my overall feeling of non-plussedness based on any intimate knowledge of the players? Of course not. It's more a reflection of my lack of confidence in Rick Spielman and Brad Childress to do the right thing.

If Bill Belichick or Bill Polian were running the Vikings draft, I’d feel a lot more confident about what they did. But when Childress and Spielman are involved - and remember Spielman worked for the Miami front office from 2000-2004 and was part of some bad Dolphin drafts – I worry. It’s irrational thinking on my part, because there’s no evidence yet that the Chilly/Spielman pairing has produced poor drafts. But why be a fan if you can’t be irrational now and then?

I hold out some hope though. In the Vikings 16 drafts during the seven-round era, the team has found at least two starters in 12 of them. And as I wrote last week, 68 per cent of those starters have come from the first and second rounds. So the probability is good that Harvin and Loadholt will make an impact. If Harvin can be the kind of feared offensive weapon many envision he will be, and Loadholt becomes a 10-year starter at right tackle, the 2009 draft will be a successful one.

But here are some actual draft grades
And in case you are wondering what other writers think about the Vikings draft, ESPN provided a synopsis today of various draft grades that shows I’m not the only one non-plussed by what the Vikings did.

Vikings draft – day two

I'll have more on the Vikings draft tomorrow. But here are the bios of the Vikes three picks from day two of the 2009 draft: cornerback Asher Allen, linebacker Jasper Brinkley and safety Jamarca Sanford.

Consulting Wes Bunting's 10-tier ranking of potential draftees, the Vikings picked Allen right where he should have gone. But they may have got a bit of a steal in Brinkley, who Bunting ranks as a second-to-third round talent, but who lasted until the fifth round.

And here are the names of the rookie free agents the Vikings have signed thus far.

Other stuff
Rick Spielman talks about the draft.

And Percy Harvin talks about being a Viking. Perhaps the most surprising thing in all this is that Brad Childress and Harvin have been getting along famously – texting each other, laughing and giggling during Chilly's visit with Harvin and his family in Florida last week. It's quite creepy.

Update
Access Vikings updated the list of undrafted rookie free agents the Vikings have signed. It differs slightly from the list provided last night.

Philip Loadholt!

In attempt to hide their true intentions heading into the draft in recent years, the Vikings have brought in a number of players for pre-draft workouts.

But the Vikings rarely – if ever – drafted the players they brought in, which probably ruined the intended effect. Other teams knew the Vikings were playing mind games and wouldn't end up picking the guys they brought in. But this year the Vikings first two picks – Percy Harvin and Philip Loadholt – had been brought in for private workouts. (Here's my previous post on the Harvin selection.)

So after passing on OT Michael Oher in the first round, the Vikes get a tackle in the second round. Loadholt should challenge Ryan Cook and Artis Hicks for the starting right tackle spot. If he can't beat them, we should probably be concerned the Vikes whiffed on this pick.

But god is Loadholt big. Ten-to-15 years ago, if you were an offensive tackle and weighed 300 pounds, you were a huge guy. Now 300 pounds is almost, I don't know, tiny. What is this all leading to? In another 10 years are we going to be seeing 7'0, 400-pound tackles?

And what are your thoughts on the Vikings picks on the first day? You can't accuse management of not addressing roster weaknesses.

And with the 22nd pick of the draft, the Minnesota Vikings select ...

Percy Harvin.

For as long as I can remember the Vikings have always had elite wide receivers. There was Sammy White. Then there was Ahmad Rashad (pop quiz: What was Rashad’s original name when he came into the league?). Then there was Anthony Carter, and Cris Carter and Jake Reed and, of course, Randy Moss. It was as if the Vikings had a gift for finding top-notch wideouts, players opponents had to account for and fear. I took it for granted that it was fairly easy to find these kind of players.

But since the Vikings traded Moss in 2005, finding an elite receiver hasn’t been easy and the position has been one of the weakest on the team. There’s been no 1,000 yard seasons. No wide receiver other teams had worry about. Since 2005, no Vikings wide receiver has caught more than 57 passes or seven touchdown passes and no one’s had a 1,000 yard season (although Bernard Berrian came close last year). These are the kind of numbers Vikings receivers in past years reached with ease.

So Percy Harvin is the player the Vikings hope can be this guy.

I’m not crazy about the pick. Offensive tackle was another big need and Michael Oher was available – although there is some question whether Oher, a natural left tackle, could make a smooth transition to the right side. And is Harvin a running back or wide receiver? He played both at Florida. Concerns about his character are an issue considering NFL commissioner Roger Goodell seems to have the power to suspend anyone at anytime for anything and for any length of time. But a lot of draft experts love Harvin’s talent.

One concern I have is what will Brad Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell do with Harvin? The pair haven’t shown a great aptitude for being creative. In two years, they still haven’t figured out a way to use Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson (arguably the Vikings two best offensive talents) on the field at the same time. And Harvin isn’t your typical wide receiver. Childress and Bevell will have to make the best use of Harvin’s talents. I’m not sure they’ll know how.

The Vikings, 2009 and consistency

Back when Mike Tice coached the Vikings, the team was known for fast starts and late season collapses – like the 2003 season, when the Vikes started out 6-0, then lost four straight and seven of its last 10 to finish out of the playoffs. Or like 2004, when the Vikes started 5-1, then lost three straight and four of its last five games to finish 8-8.

When the Vikings hired Brad Childress to replace Tice in 2006, I hoped Chilly would make the Vikings a more consistent team and one less prone to dramatic spikes in performance.

But it turns out Childress’ Viking teams have been just as streaky as Tice’s boys ever were. In 2006, the squad started out 4-2 but would lose four straight games and its final three. In 2007, the Vikes lost five of their first seven, won five in a row but lost their final two games. In 2008, Minnesota lost three of its first four, but also won four in a row and seven of its final nine.

If there’s something I’d like to see from the Vikings in 2009 (besides a Super Bowl victory), it’s a little more consistency. No more extended losing streaks that force the team to win multiple games in a row to save the season – as the Vikings have had to do the past two years. I want less thrills and spills in 2009 and more 2-1 and 3-1 stretches. I guess I’m looking for the Vikings to have a regular season like the Atlanta Falcons had last year. The Falcons went 11-5 in 2008, but they never won more than three games in a row. Then again, they didn’t have to because their longest losing streak was one.

I just don’t know if the Vikings will have it in them. With the quarterback situation being what it is and the schedule being what it is, it looks like we could be in for another streaky season. The Vikings could very well start the season 5-0. But then they have a three-game stretch after that (Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Green Bay) where they could lose all three games. The next two games after that look very winnable, but five of their final six games could be very tough. Why does it always have to be so hard?

Some final draft thoughts
Wes Bunting has been kicking some ass with his draft coverage at the National Football Post this winter. And this week he’s broken down potential draftees into 10 tiers. This is only one man’s opinion, but when the Vikings make their picks on Saturday and Sunday, I’ll be consulting this list to see if they picked any players a little earlier or a little later than Bunting’s tiers would suggest.

Bunting also wrote about whom he thinks will be some of the studs and duds of the 2009 draft. Of wide receiver prospect Darrius Heyward-Bey – who some mock drafts have going to the Vikings – Bunting writes: “I see a lot of Troy Williamson and Ashley Lelie in him.”

I’m now terrified that Heyward-Bey will drop to pick #22 and the Vikings will draft him.

On the subject of wide receiver prospects whose draft stock might be dropping, the Vikings are doing their best to appear seriously interested in Florida problem child Percy Harvin.

I can’t see it happening with the questions surrounding Harvin’s character and the failed drug test at the combine. But the Vikings did trade for Jared Allen, who has had his problems. A few words of caution to the Vikings though – when was the last time a wide receiver from Florida amounted to anything? Cris Collinsworth in the early 80s?

I’m now terrified that Harvin will also be available at pick #22 and the Vikings will draft him.

And as much as I follow the constant coverage of the draft and the scrutinizing of the potential draftees, it has taken some of the joy out of the event for me. I find I don’t look forward to the Vikings making their first round pick anymore. Instead, I sort of fear it. I’m more worried they’ve picked the next Troy Williamson than excited they may have found the next Randy Moss.

Before cable TV, ESPN and the Internet, I was usually happily ignorant of most of the players the Vikings would draft. Like in 1985, when I heard they had selected Chris Doleman in the first round. My reaction at the time was, “who the hell is this guy?” I knew nothing about him. And that was probably good because when Doleman struggled in his first two seasons with the Vikings (he had just 3.5 sacks his first two years), I wasn’t overly concerned, figuring he was just slow adjusting to the pro game and that he would come around. Which Doleman did in 1987. He ended up playing in eight Pro Bowls.

It would be very different today. Viking fans like me would know a lot more about Chris Doleman. I imagine we’d have heard he was “long”, had a “great burst off the edge” and that his “upside” was tremendous. But we’d also have heard that he didn’t have a great “motor” and wasn’t great at “shedding blocks” and getting “penetration” against the run. We’d have read about 100 other strengths and weaknesses in Doleman’s game. And if he struggled in his first two years, we wouldn’t have any faith he’d get better, we’d assume he was a bust and write him off.

Sometimes I miss my teenage ignorance.

Vikings drafts since 1993 – a retrospective

The NFL draft is a weekend of a promise. For the draftees, there is the promise of a long and lucrative NFL career. For management and fans, there is the promise that the players drafted will provide a foundation for the franchises they work and cheer for – the foundation for a Super Bowl champion.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the Vikings terrible 2005 draft, and how different it could have been if the Vikes had hit a home run with every pick.

Of course, no team ever has a perfect draft. Teams make mistakes – in every draft and sometimes in every round. So with the draft a week away, I decided to look back at the Vikings 16 drafts in the seven-round era, to see what we can realistically expect from the players the team will pick this year in this annual meat market.

I think a good draft produces starters and so that’s what I tracked here. I wasn't interested in backups. It’s not that drafted players who never become starters don’t make contributions. They usually make up the bulk of your special teams units, they sometimes fill vital roles (like being a third down back) and they provide depth if starters are lost to injury.

But it’s starters that usually make the biggest impact on a team. And in determining who qualified as a starter, I didn’t include all draftees who started a game or two while playing for the Vikings, or who got their starting positions because the usual starter got injured during the season. I counted players who began the season as a starter and played a majority of the games. I consulted the always handy Pro Football Reference website to get this information.

So – let’s see where those starters have come.

The Draft
Teams talk all the time about building through the draft, but history shows that can be difficult – at least if you're the Vikings. The Vikes have made 121 draft picks since 1993. Only 41 of those draftees have started for at least one season. That’s an average of about 2.5 players per draft, or approximately 34 per cent of the players the Vikings have drafted during this period. Some drafts have produced more starters. Some have produced less. But generally, the Vikings only get about two starters out of each draft.

And while there are good players in every round of every draft, since the NFL switched to a seven-round draft from a 12-round draft in 1993, the Vikings haven’t found many good players beyond the second round. Seventeen of 19 first-round draft picks and 11 of 20 second-round picks have been regular starters for the Vikes. That’s 68 per cent of the starters the team has culled from the draft.

The rest of the rounds have produced the following amount of starters:
3rd round: four
4th round: three
5th round: one
6th round: four
7th round: one

So what's to be learned from all this? Don’t get your hopes up, that’s what. When the Vikings make their picks next weekend in New York City – provided they keep them all – don't expect the Vikings to find many diamonds in the seventh round, or sixth or even the third round. There's an excellent chance only the players they pick in the first two rounds will ever make much of an impact.

And don’t expect these draftees to be around too long, either. By the fifth year, when draftees should typically be signing their second NFL contract, 77 percent of the players the Vikings drafted during this period were no longer with the team.

A few other observations about the Vikings draft history since 1993.

Feel free to take a nap when...
The Vikings make their third-round pick. This is considered a reasonably high draft position, but the Vikings results in this round have been surprisingly dismal. They have gotten as many starters (four) from the sixth-round as the third. And when you’re considering whether the Vikings best pick here is a guy who is best known for stuffing a plastic bag over the head of his toddler (Darrion Scott), you know the Vikes have drafted lousy in this round.

Pay close attention when ....
The Vikings announce their fourth-round pick. Of course, the rub here is that they don’t currently have a fourth-round pick in the 2009 draft, having traded it to Houston for Sage Rosenfels. Be that as it may, the Vikings have gotten excellent value in the fourth round since 2002.

They’ve chosen some solid starters (Brian Williams in ’02 and Ray Edwards in ’06), a promising running back who, unfortunately, let drugs derail his career (Onterrio Smith in ’03), a shifty third-down back and punt returner (Mewelde Moore in ’04) and a backup defensive end who has flashed starter ability (Brian Robison in ’07)

Best draft pick since '93:
Randy Moss – I don’t think much explanation is required here.

Worst draft pick since '93:
Dimitrius Underwood – Please read this Los Angeles Times story. How did the Vikings miss the red flags on this guy?

Best value pick since '93:
Matt Birk – even if you think Birk got his last couple of Pro Bowl berths on reputation, this guy has still been a heck of a player and accomplished a lot more than most sixth round picks in the NFL ever do.

Best draft since '93:
1998 – the drafts in 1994, 1995, 2003 and 2006 produced more starters, but 1998 gets my nod because it produced a Hall of Famer in Moss, another potential Hall of Famer in Birk and a solid starter in linebacker Kailee Wong. I'll take quality over quantity.

Vikes best picks in other rounds since '93
Second round: E.J. Henderson (’03)
And to think some considered Henderson a bust early in his career.

Third round: Nate Burleson (’03)
His one good year gives him the edge over an underwhelming cast of candidates that includes Scott, Stalin Colinet and Eric Kelly.

Fourth round: Mewelde Moore (’04)
Brian Williams gets serious consideration here. But Moore’s my pick because of his contributions running the ball, catching the ball and returning punts.

Fifth round: Tony Williams (’97)
Undersized defensive tackle was a three-year starter for Vikes.

Seventh round: Tyler Thigpen (’07)
We cut this guy so we could keep Brooks Bollinger and Kelly Holcomb?

Conclusion
It might be irrelevant to look back at Vikings drafts since 1993 and try to predict how many of the Vikings 2009 draft picks will ever be any good. After all, the people in charge of past drafts – up until 2007 – are not the same people who will be running the Vikings 2009 draft (which is Rick Spielman).

However, if after 16 drafts there are some clear trends that emerge, then I think it's reasonable to keep them in mind when we hear Brad Childress and Spielman talk glowingly about that fifth-round pick they made on the second day of the draft. We'll all have high hopes for the draftees once the event is over. And we'll all be intrigued by their promise. But few will fulfill that promise.

Other draft odds and ends
If you're wondering how the Vikings drafts have compared to other NFL teams recently, I suggest you read this story from the Viking Update site. The news isn't good.

And Mike Lombardi released his latest mock draft this week and he predicts the Vikings first-round selection will be ...USC linebacker Brian Cushing??????

Mike Mayock thinks the Vikings need offensive playmakers from this draft

I liked this post by Judd Zulgad today.

Who is Mike Mayock? Well, he's an NFL Network college football analyst who gets a lot of face time this time of the year talking about college players, what they do well, what they don't do well and what impact they might have in the NFL. He's also knows the pro game pretty well. And if you've ever heard him do commentary during Viking preseason games, you know that if Mayock left his current job to do commentary for Fox or CBS or NBC or ESPN on NFL games, he'd instantly be the best analyst on TV.

Anyhow, Mayock has some interesting things to say about the Vikings here. Like his belief that Percy Harvin could be just the player the Vikings offence needs. Or his suggestion that the Vikings take undersized, but talented, West Virginia quarterback Pat White with its second round pick, as Zulgad mentions in this paragraph.

Mayock went on to say that he would like to see the Vikings take West Virginia quarterback Pat White in the second round. There has been some concern about what position White will play in the NFL. “[I would] line him up as a Wildcat with Adrian Peterson,” Mayock said. “I think that would give defensive coordinators nightmares.”

However, as Zulgad alludes to at the end of the post, if there's a coach that I could never imagine running the wildcat in the NFL, it's Brad Childress.

The Vikings like to run a trick play now and then. And they'll throw the obligatory two long bombs per game to Bernard Berrian. But mostly the Vikings have not been a creative offence under Childress (and that's probably being kind.) They do a few things well and they do them over and over. They are predictable, and when Adrian Peterson can't find holes to run through, they are easy to defend.

Perhaps that would change with better personnel. But I tend to think not. Brad Childress does not appear to be an outside-the-box offensive thinker. Which is why Pat White will probably be wearing another uniform on draft day besides the Vikings.

The Vikings 2009 schedule (or, can you say 5-0 start?)

The Vikings 2009 regular season schedule has been released.

Matchups I like
The Vikings first five games.

The Vikings start with two games on the road – against the crappy Browns and the crappy Lions. Then they get two home games against the crappy 49ers and a Packers team that I expect to be good (that's a toss-up, I realize, but considering these teams generally split the season series and the Vikes rarely win at Lambeau, I like the Vikes chances at home). Then the Vikings get to play a crappy Rams team on the road. Sweet!

Matchups I don't like
Oct. 18 vs. Balitmore: Sage Rosenfels didn't fare too well against the Ravens D last year and I suspect Tarvaris Jackson won't fare any better if he somehow beats out Rosenfels for the starting job. Ed Reed's already got this game circled on his 2009 calendar.

Oct. 25 @ Pittsburgh: Obviously, playing the Steelers, on the road, on the horrible Heinz Field turf, against the Steelers suffocating run defence, doesn't bode well for a Vikings team that depends on big plays from Adrian Peterson to score points.

Dec. 6 @ Arizona: The reigning NFC champions will be looking for some payback.

Dec. 28 @ Chicago: A night game. At Soldier Field. In late December. Need I write more?

I'm seeing another 10-6 season here and a wildcard playoff berth. Maybe even 11-5 or 12-4 and a divisional title if Rosenfels wins the starting job, starts all 16 games and throws no more than 15 interceptions.

Thoughts anyone?

Path to the draft

Here is a story about the uselessness of mock drafts, from the folks at Cold, Hard Football Facts.

And here is another three-round mock draft by the National Football Post’s Wes Bunting. Mock drafts might be useless in predicting whom your favourite team is going to select, but they are fun to read. They also give me some insight into the pros and cons of a bunch of kids I know almost nothing about.

Unlike Bunting’s first three-round mock draft, I think all of these picks make sense for the Vikings. If you had to write down – in order – the Vikings needs going into the draft, they would probably go something like this: 1. Quarterback 2. Quarterback 3. Right tackle. 4. Wide receiver 5. Cornerback.

Brad Childress seems to think we’re fine starting Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels for the time being, so you can probably eliminate any thoughts that the Vikes will draft a QB in the first three rounds of the draft (Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman are unlikely to fall to the #22 pick and Chilly has recently been saying nice things about John David Booty.) But I can see the Vikings drafting an offensive tackle, a cornerback and a wide receiver with their first three picks.

I don’t know if they’ll go in the order Bunting outlines here, but they are all positions where the Vikings have needs. The Vikings could do better at right tackle than Ryan Cook and Artis Hicks; they need to groom a replacement for Antoine Winfield or, possibly, Cedric Griffin (if he fails to build on his improved play in the second half of ’08); and the team has no receiver opponents must account for other than Bernard Berrian.

The new guy on Bunting’s list of predicted Viking draftees is wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi. If, like me, you’ve never heard of Massaquoi, he played at the University of Georgia, he’s 22 and is listed at 6’2 and 210 pounds. He was also productive in 2008. He caught 58 passes for 920 yards and eight touchdowns and averaged 15.9 yards per catch.

I’ve got a hunch we’ll some first-round shenanigans from the Vikings on draft day. If there isn’t an offensive tackle they like at #22, they’ll try to trade down a few spots and get an additional draft pick in return – perhaps a fourth-rounder to replace the one they traded away in the Sage Rosenfels deal. But the Vikings draft strategy in the first round is supposedly to take the best player available, so I guess they could choose anyone.

Forbes on the NFL draft

Forbes is considered one of the world's best business magazines. But when it comes to writing about the NFL draft, perhaps it should leave the analysis to Sports Illustrated.

In this article, the mag looks at what teams have been the best and worst drafting franchises in the NFL over the past three seasons. The author decides to base the findings by counting what teams have kept the most players on their rosters from their last three drafts.

This is probably the most unsubjective way of doing this. It might also be the worst way of determining which NFL teams have drafted well and which ones haven't.

Just because a team has kept the majority of its drafts picks of late doesn't mean those picks are good ones. You'd expect the bottom-feeders to keep more of their draft picks than the good teams because the good ones have fewer holes to fill.

For example, if Forbes were to write a similar piece two years from now, I suspect the Detroit Lions would be ranked the number one drafting team – or very close to it. The Lions went 0-16 last year and were a historically bad football team in just about every aspect. Other than Calvin Johnson, I can't imagine why management wouldn't keep the 14 or so college players it selects in the next two drafts over the players still on the roster that "helped" the Lions produce the first winless, tieless season in NFL history. But are those 14 draft picks really good picks? There are more factors that must be considered in assessing a successful draft than retention.

This is how the Houston Texans managed to snag the number one spot on this list and why elite NFL teams like New England and Pittsburgh ended being rated among the five worst drafting teams in the league. (The Vikings didn't make the top five or bottom five, which is all this article lays out.)

Basing the quality of a team's drafting on retention also ignores how significant an impact the draftees have had on the team. If a good draft class is judged solely on how many players from that draft are still on the team, then the Vikings 2006 draft class has to be considered one of the best in team history.

The 2006 draft has produced five starters for the Vikings out of the seven players drafted. But of those five starters, only two (Chad Greenway and Cedric Griffin) are guaranteed to be playing for Minnesota beyond 2009 and two of the other draftees' hold on a starting position is tenuous at best (Tarvaris Jackson and Ryan Cook). Of the five current starters from the Vikes draft class of '06, only Greenway looks like a potential star. Two others – Griffin and Ray Edwards – appear to have the potential to be solid players but nothing more.

Quality doesn't always mean quality when it comes to the NFL draft.

Final thoughts about you-know-who and you-know-what

I promise to leave the Jay Cutler thing alone after this post. However, before I do that, here are some thoughts about the situation a week after Cutler was traded to division rival Chicago.

No one outside the Vikings organization knows exactly what the team would have had to give up to get Jay Cutler. But it’s clear the Vikings did ask the Broncos what it would take and then seriously considered Denver’s asking price.

That the Vikings didn’t pull off the deal means this: head coach Brad Childress feels that his team – as currently constructed and with a full allotment of its first-day draft picks in 2009 and 2010 – is better off with either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels at quarterback than it is with Cutler.

This is a career-defining decision by Childress. Since taking over as head coach in 2006, Chilly’s Vikings have amassed a nice collection of talent – except at the quarterback position. The problem with that is quarterback is the most important position in the sport and just about everyone who follows the NFL agrees that quarterback play is what is holding the Vikings back from challenging for a Super Bowl.

So when a not-so-popular head coach, who happens to be employed by a team that has recently had trouble selling out home games, decides to pass on the chance to acquire a young Pro Bowl quarterback, regardless of the compensation required, that coach needs to be right about his choice. Or he won’t be the head coach much longer. Chilly is entering the fourth year of a five-year contract. Coaches who last this long typically are either signed to an extension before they reach the final year of that contract or they are fired sometime during the season preceeding the final year of the contract.

I suspect that if the Vikings fail to make the playoffs in 2009 and the play of Jackson or Rosenfels (or both) is perceived as the reason why, the bald guy with the mustache wearing a headset on the Vikings sidelines will take the fall. And rightly so.

Do you like Zygi?
Interesting piece in the National Football Post by Robert Boland where he ranks the NFL owners. And he has some nice things to say about Vikings owner Zygi Wilf (although he gives Wilf an incomplete grade, because, I guess, Zygi’s only owned the team for four years.)

Boland’s piece points out that strong ownership is an important component of a successful NFL franchise. Teams with bad owners tend to be bad. Which makes me feel better about the Vikings future because I happen to like Wilf. He’s involved and engaged in the team, but not so much that he’s damaging the on-field product by meddling in personnel matters (Exhibit A: Al Davis.) He’s willing to spend money to get players the coaching staff really wants. He’s done some things (like bringing tailgating on-site to the Metrodome) to solidify what Boland describes as the “compact with customers.” Finally, Wilf has also shown consistency and some determination in sticking with Childress and his coaching staff - even if it's caused fans like myself to grind our teeth in our sleep. Childress is not very popular among the fan base and his presence on the team (and the brand of football he believes in) probably hurts ticket sales. But Wilf has stuck with him and in 2008 Childress got him a divisional title.

I think the Vikings have a good owner. But what say the rest of you out there?

The perfect draft

I’ve had enough writing about Jay Cutler. It’s time to move on to other subjects. And as this is going to be my longest post in a while, I hope I can hold your interest.

First, I’ll admit I got the idea for this post from a wonderful article written by Joe Posnanski about the Kansas City Royals disastrous 1999 draft. I understand the idea has since been copied by a number of writers – some of whom haven’t even bothered to acknowledge in print that they got the idea from Posnanski. Well, that won’t be happening here. Joe Posnanski – Grant’s Tomb thanks you for this brilliant idea it’s about to borrow.

Now let’s get down to business. With the Vikings showing no interest in re-signing offensive tackle Marcus Johnson (and with good reason), big Marcus’s departure (update: ESPN reports Johnson has signed with Oakland) closes a sad chapter in Minnesota Vikings history, one that fans of the team hope won’t ever be repeated – the 2005 NFL draft.

The Vikings had seven picks in this draft – including two in the first round – and whiffed on six of them. And even the one half-way decent player the Vikings did select, they ended up trading in 2006 for a weak-armed, career backup quarterback that got cut at the end of the 2008 training camp. So really, the Vikings did not select a player in the 2005 draft that contributed to the team in any meaningful way. This is hard to do, even if you were trying to do it, which, I assume, the Vikings weren’t.

But what if the Vikings had a perfect draft in 2005? What would that draft look like?

I’ll get into all that, but first – for context - let’s take a brief look at the Vikings roster as the 2004 season ended and assess what the team’s needs were heading into the draft.

As you probably remember, the Vikings made the playoffs in 2004. They even won a game before bowing out to the eventual NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. But they made the playoffs with a ho-hum 8-8 record and then traded their best player, Randy Moss, in March to Oakland for Napoleon Harris, the seventh overall pick and a seventh round pick in the 2005 draft. The Vikings already had plenty of needs heading into the draft despite the playoff appearance. The Moss trade created another one.

As for those other needs, it’s clear the Vikes needed offensive line help. Chris Liwienski was the starting left guard, David Dixon had been the starter at right guard, but would retire at the end of the season, and Mike Rosenthal and Nat Dorsey were the options at right tackle. The defensive line was another concern, both at tackle and end. Chris Hovan was completely ineffective in 2004 and would be allowed to walk that offseason. On the edges, Kenechi Udeze was the starting right end, but coming off a disappointing rookie season, and Kenny Mixon - more of a run stopping DE than anything (never more than five sacks in a season) – would be released in April, leaving an opening at left end.

But the needs didn’t end there. Linebacker and safety were problem areas, too. The only positions where the Vikings were fine were quarterback, tight end, running back (where the team had a deep, if not spectacular, group that included the S.O.D., Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore and Moe Williams) and cornerback – manned at the time by Antoine Winfield and Brian Williams.

Now prior to the draft, the Vikings made some moves in free agency to address some of their weaknesses, with varying degrees of success. The purple smartly signed Pat Williams to replace Hovan at defensive tackle. They signed Darren Sharper away from Green Bay to replace Brian Russell at free safety. They even signed Travis Taylor, hoping he could emerge into an effective possession receiver next to their supposed new number one receiver, Nate Burleson.

So that’s where the Vikings stood when draft weekend arrived. And as Posnanski writes in the post linked above, what follows is what was and what might have been. (By the way, you can find every pick in the entire 2005 draft here at the Pro Football Reference site.)

Vikings first round pick (7th overall): wide receiver Troy Williamson
Could have been: linebacker DeMarcus Ware or linebacker Shawne Merriman

Comments: The Vikings had the right idea in the first round, they really did. They drafted a wide receiver and a pass rusher. But they got the order wrong. They should’ve went after a pass rusher with the seventh overall pick and a wide receiver with the 18th overall pick. Ware and Merriman were sitting right there, waiting to put on a Vikings jersey. Now I know what you’re thinking, ‘But Ware and Merriman are linebackers in a 3-4 and have never lined up with a hand on the ground in the pros. The Vikings play a 4-3!’ And that’s true. But good players are good players. And Ware and Merriman were more than good players – they were (and still are) elite pass rushers. No matter where they play, they are going to put pressure on the quarterback. Both guys are also listed at 6’4 and over 260 pounds, so they’ve got the size to hold up as a defensive end. But you’re drafting them to get after the quarterback. Who cares if stopping the run isn’t exactly their forte?

Vikings additional first round pick (18th overall): defensive end Erasmus James
Could have been: wide receiver Roddy White

Comment: As I recall, the knock on James coming out of Wisconsin didn't have anything to do with talent but that he was injury prone. And, what do you know, once he got to the pros, he was injury prone. White also had doubters going into the draft. Some experts wondered whether he could translate his all-world numbers at Alabama-Birmingham to the pros. But given the choice between two players playing the same position, the lesson learned here is that you should probably select the guy who led the nation in receiving yards his senior season (White), but played against lesser competition, over the guy who could run fast but never caught more than 43 passes in a college season and had a tendency to allow passes to bounce off his chest plate (Williamson).

One other point: If the Vikings had picked White and Ware or Merriman in the first round, we would not care what they did with their remaining picks. They could have thrown them in the Hudson River at this point and still had a very successful draft. But they didn’t.

Vikings second round pick (49th overall): offensive lineman Marcus Johnson
Could have been: free safety Nick Collins

Comments: The Vikings have already signed Darren Sharper by the time they are about to make this pick, so why is selecting another free safety the right call when there are other needs (read: offensive line) to be addressed? Because the chance to add another playmaker in the defensive backfield cannot be passed up here and Collins has emerged into a damn good player. Besides, the Vikings can probably slide Collins over to strong safety, eliminating the need to sign Dwight “Stairwell” Smith in 2006. Plus, the Vikings get to address their offensive line problems in the third round.

Vikings third round pick (80th overall): defensive back Dustin Fox
Could have been: offensive tackle Nick Kaczur

Comments: This one is a tough call because Leroy Hill is available here and the Vikings have linebacker issues. But I’ll go with Kaczur considering what a black hole right tackle has been for the Vikings since the death of Korey Stringer. Kaczur’s no Pro Bowler. But he’s been a solid starter at tackle for four years on a Patriots team with a highly regarded offensive line. And he’s not Ryan Cook or Artis Hicks.

As for Fox, there should have been all kinds of red flags on him in the Vikings draft war room. Why? Because he’s white and his position at Ohio State was cornerback, that’s why. There aren’t many white cornerbacks in the NFL. At the end of the 2004 season there were ZERO white starting cornerbacks in the NFL. Jason Sehorn wasn’t even a first-stringer. Fox would not add to that number. To be fair, there was talk the Vikings might switch Fox over to safety. However, he broke his arm in training camp and was released by the Vikings the following year, having never played a down of football for them. You’ve got to do better with a third round pick than that.

Vikings fourth round pick (112th overall): running back Ciatrick Fason
Could have been: running back Darren Sproules

Comments: Another tough call here because, as I mentioned above, the Vikings have a crowded and relatively productive corps of running backs already in the fold (although the S.O.D. - Onterrio Smith – will get suspended for the 2005 season because of the Whizzinator thing). Plus, centre Jason Brown is still available. But you’re probably not looking for a successor to Matt Birk just yet, who is coming off his fourth Pro Bowl selection in five years, who will turn 28 during the 2005 training camp and who has four years left on his contract. And Sproules solves the Vikings problem of finding someone – anyone – who can capably return kick-offs and punts. Sproules would have provided the offence an extra 10-15 yards in field position everytime it trots onto the field - something the unit hasn't enjoyed for years because the punt and kick-off returners have stunk. And if you think that's a trivial matter, well, you haven't watched the Vikes offence much since 2005.

Vikings fifth round pick: The Vikings have no fifth round pick in 2005, but considering how they drafted, I don't think it really matters.

Vikings sixth round pick (191st overall): defensive tackle C.J. Mosley
Could have been: No one

Comments: Believe it or not, the Vikings made the right choice here. The best player in this round – by far – is tight end Bo Scaife. But the Tennessee Titans scooped him up 11 picks ago, so the Vikings draft a defensive tackle with some potential. Now we know Mosley has not turned into a star. He’s about to play for his third organization in five seasons. He has never been a starter anywhere he’s been and he’s never had more than three sacks in a season. But I have seen the odd game where Mosley’s been a factor - even a big factor. He can give you some quality play from time-to-time. And that’s more than I can say about the guy the Vikings traded Mosley for in 2006 – quarterback Brooks Bollinger. This is more evidence that the Vikings 2005 draft was cursed. Even when they got it right, they found a way to screw it up eventually.

Vikings seventh round pick (219th overall): defensive back Adrian Ward
Could have been: defensive tackle Jay Ratliff

Comments: Okay, I realize it’s a bit unfair to criticize the Vikings selections this late in the draft. By the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds, the draft becomes an even bigger crapshoot than the crapshoot it already is. You’re choosing very flawed players here, most of whom will never amount to a tinker’s damn. Only 12 of the 40 players picked in the seventh round in 2005 are still in the league and only one (Matt Cassel) has emerged into a potential impact player. Most of the time you’re taking a flier on a Rick Razzano (Tampa Bay; pick 221), or a Keyonta Marshall (Philadelphia; pick 247), or a Adrian Ward. Meanwhile, Ratliff has developed into a nice starting nose tackle for the Cowboys. Even had 7.5 sacks last year. You could call it a fluke, but Bill Parcells was shopping for the groceries in the 2005 draft and he got four starters - Ware, defensive end Marcus Spears, running back Marion Barber and Ratliff – plus backup linebacker Kevin Burnett in that draft. Parcells missed on his two picks in the sixth round (defensive back Justin Beriault and offensive lineman Rob Petitti), but so did a lot of other teams. Bottom line: Parcells drafted very well in 2005. He knew what he was doing. The Vikings, evidently, did not.

A couple of other things that merit mentioning about the 2005 draft. One of those things is the quarterback position. The Vikings passed on quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (24th overall), Jason Campbell (25th overall), Derek Anderson (213th overall) and, of course, Cassel (230th overall). My perfect pick for the Vikings with the 18th overall pick is Roddy White instead of Rodgers and in the seventh round it's Ratliff, which must seem odd considering the Vikings predicament at quarterback these past few years. Why didn't I choose Rodgers or Cassel, two guys who threw for over 4,000 yards last year, instead of White and Ratliff?

The reason is that with each of these picks the Vikings should have made, I tried to pick good players while also taking into account the Vikes actual needs when they made these picks. Now you can argue a team can never have enough good quarterbacks, but in April 2005, I don’t think you can argue that quarterback was a weakness for the Vikings. In fact, it looked like the strongest position on the team.

It mostly looked that way because Daunte Culpepper was coming off one of the best years an NFL quarterback has ever had (Check out these numbers - 69.2 completion percentage, 4,717 passing yards, 39 TD passes, only 11 interceptions and he even ran for 406 yards and two TDs). And Culpepper had just turned 28. He was going to be the Vikings quarterback for the next six-to-eight years – maybe even longer. No one knew he was going to have his knee shredded seven games into the 2005 season and would never be the same. Also, no one had yet discovered what a disastrous effect not having Randy Moss to throw to would have on Culpepper’s effectiveness – even before he got injured.

Let’s also remember the Vikings had signed wily Brad Johnson in the offseason to serve as the capable veteran backup behind Culpepper. The third string guy – the young, developmental quarterback every team likes to have – was Shaun Hill. Maybe Hill’s no Cassel, but in 2005 he’s got no more and no less promise than Cassel or Anderson. And I’m not sold that Cassel will be anything more than a one-year wonder anyway, which I why I have the Vikings picking Ratliff. And with Rodgers, are you really going to pick a guy with the 18th overall pick when you expect he's going to back up Culpepper for the first six years of his career?

The other thing to note about this draft and every draft the Vikings had during the time Red McCombs owned the team is that there was no personnel man who made the final decision on whom the Vikings were drafting. Based on what I’ve read over the years, Red didn’t want to hire too many front office people, or scouts, or assistant coaches, because he wanted to keep costs down.

Okay, that’s not quite right. During Denny Green’s last few years as head coach, the Vikings did have one guy calling the shots on draft day – the Sheriff himself. But this is different than actually having a general manager or personnel guy in charge of all aspects of the draft. Having your head coach oversee the draft has not worked out well the majority of the time in the NFL. And it didn’t work out well for the Vikings. Green was so bad at it that the Vikings were playing, regularly, guys like Wasswa Serwanga and Robert Tate during the final years of his regime.

As for the Mike Tice years, the Vikings did not have one guy calling the shots on draft day, it was more like several guys. Again, my understanding is that Tice had some input (not a good thing), Scott Studwell had some input, scouts, assistant coaches, concession workers – they all had some input and then some kind of consensus was reached. The Vikings hit on some players with this approach, like Kevin Williams, but missed on plenty of others. Mostly, they didn’t seem to have a plan. Nor did they seem to know what kind of players they were looking for - the kind of thing good drafting GMs like Parcells, Ozzie Newsome and Bill Polian do. If you’re looking for a reason why the Vikings failed miserably in the 2005 draft, the Vikes draft process is probably the biggest culprit.

There is some hope this won't continue to happen. Say what you want about Vikings management now, but there’s a chain of command and Rick Spielman is the guy calling the shots on draft day. It may turn out that this isn’t a good thing because Spielman was very bad at this when he did it in Miami. But the Vikings seem to have a gameplan leading up to and during the draft now. They seem to know what kind of players that fit what they do and the drafts the past three seasons look quite a bit better than the Green/Tice drafts. So, there’s been some progress. I think. Although the whole handling of the Jay Cutler thing makes me wonder.

Now if the Vikings had that perfect draft in 2005, how different would the Vikings past four years have turned out? That’s always a tough call because of the variables at play. I don’t think the perfect draft would have made the Vikings a vastly better team in 2005. But in 2006, how would the extra juice a Ware or Merriman would have given the Vikings pass rush have helped? Would they have finished better than 6-10 and if so, do they still have the opportunity to select Adrian Peterson in the 2007 draft? How would Roddy White’s emergence in 2007 have improved a terrible Vikings passing game? Does that get them into the playoffs? Do the Vikings still trade three drafts picks for Jared Allen prior to the 2008 draft if they’ve already got Ware or Merriman on the roster? And if they don’t do that, would the Vikings have been less reluctant to trade away multiple picks this year to secure Cutler’s services? Lots to think about here and it's hard to know whether the Vikings would be better off or not.

What we do know is the 2005 draft was terrible. The sad thing is it didn't have to be.

Arrgghhh!!!!!!!!!

Jay Cutler is a Chicago Bear.

My one wish once I realized the Vikings had no interest in Cutler was that he didn't end up in the division. So he ends up in the division.

And now, instead of having to face one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL twice a year (Aaron Rodgers), the Vikings have to face two of the best young quarterbacks twice a year. Repeating as NFC North champs just got a little harder.

The Bears apparently gave up quite a lot to get Cutler. But they get a lot in return as well. Cutler won't have much to throw to other than Greg Olsen, and his offensive line sometimes has trouble keeping a quarterback upright, but he should make both of those positions better. And I imagine Matt Forte has a big smile on his face.

Thoughts on the deal anyone? Would giving up the Vikings number one pick this year and in 2010, plus, say, Sage Rosenfels (assuming the Broncos would have taken the bait, which is assuming a lot) have been worth it?

My opinion is yes, it would have been worth it.

Not to worry though, Brad Childress informs us John David Booty is really progressing.

Forget about it

The Star-Tribune’s Judd Zulgad did his best on Wednesday to dampen any enthusiasm among Vikings fans that the team might take another shot at trading for Jay Cutler.

I’ve never been clear – nor do I think anyone has made it clear – what the exact timeline was on the Vikings interest in Cutler and the trade for Sage Rosenfels. If Zulgad’s opinion in his post is to be believed, here is how the order of events must have gone.

1. Vikings contact Broncos about Jay Cutler’s availability. Much to the Vikings surprise, the Broncos say they'll think about it.

2. Patriots enter the picture and a three-team deal starts developing where the Vikings get Cutler, the Patriots get Minnesota’s 22nd overall pick, and perhaps another pick, and the Broncos get Matt Cassel and perhaps a player on the Vikings current roster.

3. Vikes coaching staff and management sour on Cutler for unknown reasons and back out of talks for Cutler.

4. Vikes move onto Rosenfels, trade for him and sign him to a modest contract extension.

If Zulgad is right and my order of events is correct – that is that the Vikings traded for Rosenfels only after approaching the Broncos about Cutler and then deciding they didn’t want him after all - then the Broncos announcement that they are trading Cutler means nothing to the Vikings. They already decided a few weeks ago that they didn’t want Cutler on their team. How depressing.

In other news, Mike Lombardi lists the top contenders to trade for Cutler. He doesn’t mention the Vikings.