The UFAs

Back in late April, much fuss was made about draftees like Percy Harvin and Phil Loadholt. But after the NFL's seven-round college meat market was over, the Vikings work on acquiring new talent wasn't. Instead management went about signing many undrafted college free agents.

Most of these players won't make the team, but some will. Some might even become starters or Pro Bowlers. Former Vikings (and Pro Bowlers) Robert Griffith and John Randle were UFAs. And the players on the current Vikings roster who were UFAs and have played a significant role with the team of late include starting guard Anthony Herrera, nickleback Charles Gordon and special teams star and backup linebacker Heath Farwell.

Here is a list of the undrafted rookie free agents the Vikes signed (Note: it doesn't include center Juan Garcia or wide receiver Vinnie Perretta and the team recently released Bobby Lepori, Nick Walker and Sean Glennon).

In order to see if there might be any future Griffith's or Randle's in the bunch, I recently asked the National Football Post's director of college scouting Wes Bunting for his assessment on the Vikings UFAs. Most Viking fans are familiar with at least one of the signees – running back Ian Johnson of Boise State-over-Oklahoma fame. But the UFA Bunting seems the highest on is little-known N.C. State defensive tackle Antoine Holmes, who sounds a bit like a Spencer Johnson clone.

Here are Bunting's comments on the UFAs he thinks have the best chance of sticking with the team.

Ian Johnson:
Particulars: Boise State; 6'0; 196; running back

Bunting's take:
"Is a natural runner and catches the ball well. He’s fourth on the depth chart right now behind Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor and Albert Young. I think he could beat out Young. The big question – is he going to help you out on special teams? He has to find a niche. But I certainly think he could be that number three guy if the Vikings keep three running backs.

His strengths are running the ball and his vision between the tackles. At the NFL combine he ran a 4.38. But when you watch him on tape he doesn’t show that kind of burst. He’s a real patient runner, sets up his blocks well, has great vision and lateral ability and footwork. Once he hits that hole he goes from nothing to top speed in two steps. However, once he hits that full speed and the second level he’s not going to run away from anyone. He does catch the ball well out of the backfield.

Why he lost carries at Boise State [in his last two seasons] is with all the success Boise State had, they were able to bring in better athletes through recruiting. So the back-up running backs were better athletes than Johnson. But at the same time he was a more instinctive, more gifted runner. They were trying to get their athletes in space, get Johnson off the field and do a little lightning and thunder action with Johnson being the more physical back. But as a pure runner, he was one of the top guys in the entire draft, if you just look at his instincts, his cut-back ability and his vision. He’s a real talented guy.

He’s not real fast. He’s not going to run away from people. But in that short area, that’s what makes him so intriguing. The NFL is played inside a box. So if he can grind out those four or five-yard carries, I think he’s going to do well for them."

Antoine Holmes:
Particulars: N.C. State; 6"2; 290; defensive tackle

Bunting's take:
"One guy I was really intrigued by was Holmes. In my notes when I did an N.C. State game, the game I saw him play, I gave him a second/third round grade – a guy who could develop for one or two years and possibly start down the line.

I look at the depth you guys have behind Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. It’s Fred Evans, Letroy Guion, Jimmy Kennedy and Tremaine Johnson. I think Holmes is just as talented as Guion. But they have him listed as a nose tackle right now. I think he’s more of an under tackle, where he can shoot gaps inside and penetrate and do things like that. But I think he’s a guy who could definitely spell Kevin Williams at times. And I think he’s the best prospect of any of these guys on the board. Worst-case scenario, he definitely makes the practice squad. But I could see him beating out Guion and Johnson in time.

As I said, I only saw N.C. State once and I got him against Florida State, which had a young, inexperienced line. He’s an undersized, three technique guy. Maybe he just had a good game on my day, but I gave him the same grade as a guy named Willie Young – who plays defensive end and is projected to be a first or second round pick next year. I was impressed. I had him underlined four different times for four different things I saw. He must have had one heck of a game if I gave him that kind of love."

Colt Anderson:
Particulars: Montana; 5'10, 195; safety

Bunting's take:
"When I looked over the roster, Madieu Williams is the starter, then behind him is Eric Frampton and DeVon Hall. He could beat both of those guys out. But he’s got to start off as a gunner on special teams. Who I’d compare him to is Jim Leonhard – from the Baltimore Ravens and now with the New York Jets. I think he runs 4.5, so he runs decently. But he’s got great instincts. He’s been real productive and takes great angles and he's smart in the secondary. I think he was a three-time all-conference guy. And he’ll play special teams for you. He’ll work hard and be a gunner, there are no character concerns with him.

And with the guys you have – Frampton and Hall – that’s not much competition behind Williams. I think Anderson has a chance, especially if he takes to the playbook quickly. That will be key for him, as well as making that transition from a place like Montana all the way up to the NFL. That’s a tough transition for these guys to make, to go from their conference, where they consistently make plays and then when they get to the NFL they realize everyone is just as talented – if not more talented – than they are. If he can handle that, I think he has a chance because there’s not much competition. To be honest, I think Anderson has just as good or even a better chance of making it than [Vikings seventh round pick and safety] Jamarcus Sanford."

Jon Cooper:
Particulars: Oklahoma; 6"3; 290; centre

Bunting's take:
"He’s actually number two on the depth chart behind John Sullivan. Juan Garcia is third. Unless they have something in the works, where they are going to kick a guard back up, Cooper has a good chance to make it. However, I don’t think he’s a good fit for that offence. The Vikings like big guys who can move people off the ball. Cooper is more a guy who traps and gets out to the second level. He’s more of a zone blocking scheme kind of guy. Maybe they’ll ask him to put on some weight. But because of the depth chart and what you have right now, he has a chance. I just don’t think he’s a great fit for the scheme."

Andy Kemp:
Particulars: Wisconsin; 6"5; 320; offensive guard

Bunting's take:
"This is a big, physical, Big 10 guy. He plays well in a phone booth, where he can get his hands on you and drive. But he’s not real comfortable in space. However, he’s exactly what the Vikings want to do – drive people off the ball. I think he’s an offensive lineman that fits what they want to do. He has a chance."

And there you have it – five guys to keep an eye on during preseason after all the starters are gone midway through the second quarter.

What he said

Today (June 22), the National Football Post's Mike Lombardi used his daily column on the site to provide an unflattering appraisal of Vikings head coach Brad Childress.

Granted, this is just one guy's opinion, and the opinion of a guy who hasn't had a job in the NFL in a while. Still, when a guy with Lombardi's managerial experience is so down on your team's head coach, it's hard to feel good about where your team is headed – especially when you see how that head coach has handled the quarterback situation this offseason.

To rewind, that handling has included the following: passing on trading for Jay Cutler; then trading for Sage Rosenfels; then attempting to woo Brett Favre out of retirement; then not keeping Rosenfels and last year's starter, Tarvaris Jackson, abreast of the seriousness of your wooing until it was so obvious you could ignore the fact no longer.

Anyway, I've written about this before, but Lombardi's post just fuels my suspicion (which is growing into a belief) that when the Vikings succeed, they succeed in spite of Chilly, not because of him.

And it's not that I don't recognize some of the good things Childress has done. For example, despite an often bland public persona, he has been able to attract top free agents to come play for him (although whether they are attracted more by Zygi Wilf's money or Chilly's coaching talents, is open to a lot of debate). And the Vikings draft record since Childress became head coach in 2006 seems better than it did under Mike Tice (although, again, that's open for debate. The lauded 2006 draft, which produced five starters, could be down to three if Jackson and Ryan Cook lose their starting jobs this season. Furthermore, Cedric Griffin's hold on a starting job isn't that secure either, contract extension or no contract extension).

The problem for me as a Vikings fan is there are still too many things that continue to bug me about Childress' coaching and lead me to believe last year's 10-6 record could be a high-water mark during his tenure.

What are those things? Well, how about his inability to assess quarterback talent (you can't tell me Jeff Garcia was not a better option than Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb and Gus Frerotte the past two seasons)? Or what about his ongoing struggles with in-game decisions (like his perplexing challenges)? The Vikes are also frequently outfoxed by other coaching staffs in making half-time adjustments; they can't seem to dominate an entire football game and there has been an utter failure to develop a competent NFL passing game with, arguably, the best running back duo in professional football.

And now Lombardi thinks Childress may be losing the locker room as he and Favre perform this wobbly, awkward dance that looks like it will lead to Favre unretiring and wearing purple and gold.

If it was a lot of other coaches, I could get behind the idea. But with Childress and his track record, I see this ending badly – for Favre, for Viking fans and for Childress.

Yeah, sure

I'm not saying Brett Favre is a waffler or anything, but hold your hand up if you think he (and Brad Childress) will stick to this supposed deadline of making a decision before training camp starts.

Blah, blah, blah

In this post, Vikings beat writer Judd Zulgad wonders how long the Vikings coaching staff is willing to wait for Brett Favre to decide on whether he's going to play for the Vikes or not. Would they bring him in – even after training camp starts – if it takes that long for his arm to feel right?

Based on how the Vikings have handled this situation thus far, I think they're desperate enough to wait that long, maybe right up until the day before the regular season begins.

If Brad Childress does that, from a team chemistry/cohesion standpoint, he would be going against conventional wisdom that says in team sports the more you practice and sweat and bond with your teammates, the better your team is going to be. I also suspect this talk that Childress' offence is so similar to what Favre ran with the Packers, that #4 would pick it up easily, is overly optimistic. Consider that if Favre joins the Vikings, he will be playing for his third team in three seasons. He'll be playing behind an entire offensive line he's never played behind before. He'll be handing off to running backs he's never handed off to before and passing to wide receivers, tight ends and running backs he's never thrown to before.

There will be subtle differences in how these players run routes and catch the ball that Favre will have to get used to. And those players will have to get used to how Favre delivers the ball, how quickly he delivers it and where he likes to deliver it. Favre strolling into training camp at the midway point (or later) only increases the chance that this move backfires on the defending NFC North champs.

Stay away, Brad. (even though I know you won't.)

In other Favre news, Pacifist Viking writes about the pros of signing Favre and cheering for Favre.

Sad, sad Troy

While stopping by the National Football Post this morning I spotted a headline that said "Jags drop two." I immediately thought – "Jacksonville must have cut Troy Williamson."

It turns out they hadn't. But the headline got me thinking more about Williamson, the seventh overall pick in 2005 draft and the guy who was going to replace Randy Moss. Here is what a Florida Times-Union story had to say about the offseason Williamson is having with the Jaguars on Wednesday.

Jaguars WR Troy Williamson is doing well this offseason, especially at the recent OTA workout. "Troy's done well," coach Jack Del Rio said. "He's done a nice job of competing." If Williamson keeps making plays, he can put himself in the mix for a WR job at a position that became more competitive when the Jaguars signed free agent Torry Holt and drafted three rookie wide receivers. The Jaguars obtained Williamson, the seventh player chosen in the 2005 draft by Minnesota, in a trade last year for a sixth-round pick. Noted for his speed, Williamson caught only 79 passes in three years with the Vikings and gained a reputation for dropping passes. Williamson was hampered by thigh and groin injuries in his first year with the Jaguars. He appeared in only eight games, started two and caught only five passes, although he had a 69-yard play called back by penalty. "I think the key is for Troy to keep himself healthy so that he can have a chance to display his skill and his athleticism. He should be able to get some things done if he can stay on the football field for us," Del Rio said.

This all sounds very familiar. During the 2007 offseason, Williamson also appeared to be doing "well." He had sought out a Nike vision specialist to correct some sort of eyesight problem, he was catching 1,000 balls a day or whatever the number was, he was about to turn the corner. Then during the 2008 offseason, after being traded to Jacksonville, Williamson was also doing "well." He was with a new team, working hard and was away from Brad Childress, a coach he'd grown to despise.

But in the past three seasons Troy Williamson has gone from 37 catches (a career high), to 18 catches, to just five catches. He just turned 26, so anything is possible, but he appears to be a guy already on the downside of his career. This could be his last chance to save that NFL career.

Whatever happens this season in Jacksonville, Williamson will go down, along with players like Dimitrius Underwood and D.J. Dozier – as one of the Vikings greatest draft busts.

In general, the Vikings have done pretty well with their number one picks over the past two decades. But when they whiff, they whiff big.

Update
And with a hat tip to the Daily Norseman, check out this very funny fake story on the Vikings quarterback situation. Great stuff.

Fantasy football, Brett Favre and the wisdom of crowds

Football Outsiders' excellent Bill Barnwell has embarked on an interesting exercise. He's asked a bunch of footballaholics to predict the seasons four quarterbacks will have in 2009. One of those four QBs is Brett Favre – as a Viking. And you won't be impressed with the results.

What kind of stats do you think Favre would put up with the Vikings? My guess is 3,500, 21 TDs, 19 INTs, which I don't think gets the Vikings anywhere near a Super Bowl.

Go Sage Rosenfels!

The long-range forecast for the quarterback situation in Minnesota: cloudy until mid-July

A month ago I thought it was ridiculous to hear fans and sportswriters theorize that Brett Favre dislikes organized team activities and minicamps so much that he would delay a decision on unretiring until training camp, just to avoid all that nonsense.

But now there's this. If I'm Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels, I'm preparing myself for when training camp open in July, and the Vikings schedule a press conference to announce they've signed Favre.

I wonder how Brad Childress is handling this with Jackson and Rosenfels? He's been careful to say as little as possible about it publicly. But is he keeping the two guys who are supposed to be competing for the starting job in the loop on what interest the Vikings have in Favre? Past comments by Rosenfels and Jackson suggest they haven't spoken to Childress about it. If that's the case, I think it's unfair and unethical to give two professionals the impression they are fighting for a starting job when you're ultimate plan is to coax Favre out of retirement if he's healthy. However, fairness, ethics and professional sports do not always mix.

Interesting post by Football Outsiders' J.I. Halsell on NFL teams and salary cap efficiency. If Halsell's numbers are to be believed (and I have no reason not to believe them), the Vikings under the Wilf's ownership have a very good handle on the salary cap – although if no new collective bargaining agreement is reached with the players and owners soon, there will be no cap in 2010.

Still, for those of us who remember those dark days in the late 90s and the early part of this decade when the Vikes always seemed to be in salary cap trouble and couldn't keep many of their core players together, (who inevitably signed with Cleveland for some reason) there's something reassuring in knowing we've got ownership and management that is spending money efficiently and wisely. It's one less thing for a Vikings fan to moan about. Which is nice, because we do enough moaning.

Believe the hype?

As Christopher Walken once said in the famous Saturday Night Live "more cowbell" skit, "I like what I'm hearing."

It's always dangerous to read too much into what players do at OTAs. Everyone is improved this time of the year and everyone is on the cusp of a breakout season. But I think defensive end Brian Robison could be a very important player for the Vikings in 2009. The Vikes finally became a complete defence in 2008 and an improved pass rush had a lot to do with it. But what's in store for 2009?

You know Jared Allen is going to be a pass-rushing terror and get 10-plus sacks if healthy. And Kevin Williams is certainly capable of doing the same from the tackle position. But of the other defensive lineman that play a lot, Pat Williams is a run stopper, period, and Ray Edwards is a guy who is probably stronger defending the run than rushing the passer.

Could Robison be that third pass rusher – like Justin Tuck was for the Giants in 2007 – that creates matchup problems for every offensive line? I think he could be.

And if Robison causes opponents as much problems in 2009 as he's creating for his own teammates at these OTAs, the Vikings could have the best pass rushing defensive line it's had since the days of Chris Doleman, Keith Millard, Henry Thomas and Al Noga back in the late 80s.

What good could come of this?

Antoine Winfield has been one of my favourite Viking players since signing with the team. But if his recent no-shows at the team's mandatory minicamp and organized team activities are at all related to the stalled talks on a contract extension, then this is probably the beginning of a irreconcialiable breakdown in what's been a mostly happy union between the Vikes and Winfield.

Some Viking fans will consider Winfield's action unprofessional and disloyal. But I find no fault in them. Football is a brutal sport and management's loyalty to players lasts only as long as that player is useful to them. Not that there's anything wrong with that. In fact, that's the way it has to be if a franchise is going to remain good for a long time.

But just as I find no fault in a team casting aside a star player who is past his prime, neither do I hold it against that star if – in the last year of his contract – he chooses to stay away from these voluntary (but not really) OTAs and mandatory minicamps to gain some leverage to secure one last big payday. Winfield knows he won't be able to earn $6-million a year for much longer. And he knows that he could tear up his knee or rupture his Achilles next season and never sign another NFL contract. So why not try to pressure the Vikings into signing him to a lucrative extension?

Besides, at 32, Winfield could use the extra rest.