Vikings-Packers
The Vikings don't win at Lambeau Field very often. They've only done it four times in their last 16 tries. So why should we expect it to happen this year?
Well, from what I’ve seen this season, the Vikings are the better team, that’s why. I don’t think it’s by a wide margin, but it’s a margin nonetheless. And if you’re the better team, you should beat your opponent, provided you don’t make a bunch of silly mistakes, don’t turn the ball over, and your opponent doesn’t have a day for the ages.
Unfortunately, those things seem to happen all the time to the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The place gives me chills. I don’t mean that in a good way.
Let's move on.
In the first meeting between the two teams, the Vikings won partly because Aaron Rodgers was running for his life behind a terrible offensive line that couldn’t handle the Vikings strong pass rush. But I was also surprised by how long Rodgers held onto the ball and how few short throws the Packers attempted.
I really thought Mike McCarthy would have had dialed up a series of short slants and whatnot, protecting Rodgers from getting pummeled and forcing the Vikings to tackle well against guys like Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Instead the Packers seemed to play right into the Vikings hands.
However, this is how the 2009 Packers roll. They go for big pass plays, but those pass plays require more time to develop. Sometimes it works and leads to big gains and touchdowns. Sometimes it leads to Aaron Rodgers getting sacked.
It looks like rookie T.J. Lang will be the guy responsible for blocking Jared Allen in this game and he’s getting rave reviews for his play the past few weeks. It’s hard to imagine Allen and the rest of the Vikings having a better day rushing the passer than they did in the last meeting. And they have been susceptible to giving up a lot of passing yards all season. With Rodgers on pace to throw for 4,500 yards and 29 touchdown passes, this is worrying. The Vikings defence is coming off a surprisingly fine performance against another very good quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, but my bet is Rodgers will have more success than Big Ben did. The Vikings pass defence just doesn’t look good this season.
Another thing that struck me about the first game was Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers gambled and focused completely on stopping Adrian Peterson. He decided to see if Brett Favre could beat the Packers throwing the ball. The Packers did stop Peterson, but they also got no pressure on Favre. He picked his old team apart.
I don’t think we’ll see that kind of strategy again. Capers has to find some way to pressure Favre. I expect the Packers will blitz a lot more in this game and focus a little less on Peterson. But that could be fine for the Vikes. Peterson’s carry total has been fairly low by his standards the past three weeks (15, 22 and 18), so he’s ready for a heavier workload. I’d like to see Favre pass the ball about 30 times, tops, not 50 times like he did against the Steelers. A big game from Peterson – the kind of game he normally has against Green Bay – would provide the Vikes offence with the kind of balance that would make them very hard to stop.
One other thing. Much has been written about how the reaction of the Green Bay crowd will affect Favre’s play.
I don’t think it’s going to bother Favre much. He’s seen (and heard) it all before. But I am worried about how the Vikings offensive line and tight ends handle the crowd noise. Noisy home crowds can lead to a lot of false start penalties for the visitors, which can kill drives.
The Vikings committed several of them at noisy Heinz Field last week and Lambeau Field will probably be even noisier on Sunday. If the Vikings offensive line can keep their composure and not commit penalties that cripple drives, the offence should be able to move the ball consistently on the Packers once again.
I’m picking the Vikings to win for the eighth straight week. I can’t say I’m confident in doing so because they are playing at Lambeau Field. But I think this Vikings team is better and more mentally tough than Vikings teams in the past who have failed to beat Green Bay on the road.
It should be close. It should be entertaining. But the Vikings should win – barely.
Vikings 28 – Packers 24
Other stuff
Alternative thinking
Good news! Brett Favre’s interception fetish is a myth. At least that’s what Larry Canale writes on the NY Times Fifth Down Blog.
I don’t know about Canale’s thesis, but at least it makes me feel good heading into Sunday’s Green Bay game.
I’ve noticed this ….
Percy Harvin uses an odd technique when receiving kick-offs. Most returners catch the ball at the chest level, sort of cradling it in there with their arms.
Harvin doesn’t do that. Instead he catches it with his two hands at about eye-level or higher.
I’m not saying it’s wrong, but I can’t remember another kick-off returner ever catching the ball this way. Fortunately, it doesn’t seem to be affecting Harvin’s returns. He’s leading the league in kick-off return average.
Concerns about E.J.
I don’t chart games or watch specific players that closely during games. I just don't have the time. But it appears to me E.J. Henderson is not having a good year. I’m surprised to feel this way because the past two seasons, I thought Henderson was as good as any middle linebacker in the league (admittedly, I’m biased.) Henderson flew through gaps in the opponent’s offensive line and repeatedly took down ball carries for minimal gains or losses. Few linebackers I watched seemed to do this better.
But this season the Vikings – who have been the number one defence against the run the previous three seasons – are giving up 95.4 yards per game on the ground – 10th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Henderson is leading the team in tackles, but too often I am noticing him getting caught up in the wash at the line of scrimmage and not making the tackles he used to. Opposing runners are gashing the Vikings with long runs. I think this is partly because Henderson isn't there often enough to tackle them before they get to the second level.
Am I wrong about this? I’d sure like to be because Henderson turns 30 next year and I worry that he’s about to encounter a steep decline in his skills and the Vikes have no obvious successor to replace him.
The replacements
Despite my concerns, Benny Sapp, Karl Paymah and Asher Allen did a fine job subbing for Antoine Winfield against Pittsburgh last Sunday. Paymah missed a couple of tackles and Sapp committed a bad penalty against Ben Roethlisberger that cost the Vikes 15 yards, but other than that the trio did quite well.
They’ll have to repeat that performance against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offence. I wish them the best in their endeavors. It will be a difficult.
Quarterback of the future
The National Football Post’s Jack Bechta writes about where Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford might land in the 2010 draft.
Bradford is a guy we should keep an eye on (and I mean Viking fandom when I write "we.") Last year he won the Heisman. This year shoulder injuries limited him to three games and ended his season. Watching Bradford play last year when the Sooners were really rolling, my untrained eyes saw a kid who seemed a little thin to hold up in the NFL but a kid who could also make all the throws an NFL quarterback needs to make.
Bechta suspects Bradford will be a late first round pick. I suspect the Vikings will be picking late in the first round. This could work out very well. Obviously, the Vikings need to find a quarterback of the future. Brett Favre is 40 and probably done after this season and Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels are not the long-term answers to the quarterback question.
It’s rare to get a quarterback with Bradford’s resume late in the first round. But concerns about Bradford’s health could drop him there. If that happens, the Vikings will have to think seriously about taking him.
Injuries
Football Outsiders’ Will Carroll deals with injuries in his weekly “Black and Blue Report” and mentions our Bernard Berrian and Antoine Winfield. While he says we won’t see either of them against the Packers this week and that’s not good – they’re starters after all – he does make a good point about Berrian being Favre’s #3 receiving option this year behind Sidney Rice and Harvin. So Berrian’s absence against Green Bay wouldn’t be as big a blow to the Vikings offence as it would have been last year when Rice was a non-factor because of injuries, Harvin wasn’t here and Bobby Wade was the other starting wide receiver.
I just hope people don’t start thinking Berrian is turning into a free agent bust. I really think the two hamstring injuries he's had this season have robbed him of some of his speed and effectiveness. With this latest injury, I suspect the rest of the year could be a write-off for him, much like it was for Rice last year when he injured his knee. But that doesn’t mean Berrian won’t be an effective player for the remainder of his contract.
Australia
This has diddly to do with the Vikings, but a long-time reader of this blog, Peter, wanted to hear how my trip to Australia went, so I’m belatedly humoring him with this section. (For the rest of you, feel free to skip it.)
As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, my reason for going to Australia was to attend the World Masters Games. I was competing in fastball (for you Yanks, that’s fastpitch softball, the kind of thing you see on ESPN9 occasionally) and I played for a team from Christchurch, New Zealand (don’t ask) in the 35-45 “B” age category.
Anyway, the good news for me is we won our category at the games, so I got a gold medal out of the trip. While that was satisfying, even more satisfying was playing for a team from another part of the world. That was far more interesting for me than if I had played with a Canadian team. It was a chance to meet new people and experience a different culture. The Kiwis refer to everyone as “bro” or “cuz” and they have a zest for life and an easy-going nature that we’d do well to emulate here in North America. They also like to curse a lot. But maybe that was just the group of guys I was with.
Perhaps I shouldn’t be posting this on a blog for everybody to see, but in a bit of navel-gazing, here’s a picture of me in action at the Games. (The pants I was given were a bit tight, so for the six days we played ball, I had one great ass.) And after we won our final game, the New Zealand boys performed the Haka, which was quite a thrill for me (I’m right in the middle, #14, in the photo.)
The next games are in Torino, Italy in August of 2013. If you play sports at all, I’d suggest looking into going. You’ll meet a lot of great people and have a great time. And if you haven’t been to Australia, please do that as well. The people are great and it’s not often you can go to another country, enjoy fantastic weather, no language barrier and experience it all while living in First World conditions around you. The only downside is the 15 hours, at least, you'll spend on a plane to get there. But it’s a small downside.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
About that extension
Last week word leaked out the Vikings were working on a contract extension for head coach Brad Childress. Vikings owner Zygi Wilf denied any extension talks had taken place, and I haven’t read anything more about it since, but consider that this is the most talented and entertaining Vikings team in years and barring a big collapse, it will post its best record in Childress’ four-year tenure. If the team does that, it will also likely make the playoffs for the second year in a row. And at some point after a season like that has ended, you can expect Childress to get that extension.
If this comes to pass, I expect a lot of Viking fans will consider it a mistake because, no matter what the win-loss record says, most Viking fans think Chilly has done less with more than any Vikings coach in team history.
There’s some validity in such thinking and I’ve mused a couple of times on this blog that the Vikings would be better off with a different head coach. The 6-1 start to the 2009 season has cooled some of the grousing about Chilly among the Vikings fan base. But even as the team is winning, Childress’ game-day coaching decisions continue to inspire doubt about his head coaching ability.
For example, his use of challenges are too often of the high-risk, low-reward variety. Proper clock management continues to be a problem. And Childress remains a conservative guy, despite his background as an offensive coordinator and with an offence loaded with firepower, and the playcalling often reflects this – to the Vikings detriment. The Vikings build up what should be sizable leads on opponents but they rarely seem able to finish them off.
Those are the big debits in Childress’ ledger. However, let’s give Childress his due – he’s done a very good job rebuilding the talent base on the Vikings roster and that’s a very important part of his job description. You don’t make the playoffs and win Super Bowls in the NFL without talent.
Of course, you have to give some of the credit for the acquisition of that talent to the Vikings scouts and player personnel guys, particularly Rick Spielman and, yes, even the dearly departed Fran Foley. Still, I don’t think the Vikings are signing any free agents that Childress hasn’t identified as players he’s wanted on his team. And Childress is the guy these free agents meet, talk with and know they have to live with when they’re being courted by the Vikes. If they weren’t buying what Childress was selling, they wouldn’t be signing here – although Wilf’s fat wallet certainly helps.
Look at the free agents the Vikings have brought in since Childress arrived in 2006. In his first year the Vikings signed All-Pro offensive guard Steve Hutchinson, steady linebacker Ben Leber and the even steadier kicker Ryan Longwell. In 2007, the Vikings brought in tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, which looked like an expensive mistake at the time, but Shiancoe has emerged as a valuable player. In 2008 the Vikings signed the deep receiving threat they desperately needed in Bernard Berrian, and safety Madieu Williams. And while they missed out on wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year, Childress was able to convince Brett Favre to come out of retirement. That’s worked out pretty well.
The Vikings have also made some astute draft picks since Childress joined the Vikings and there was the big trade for Jared Allen. Again, you can’t give all the credit here to Childress. But just like with the free agent signings, I doubt Rick Speilman (or Fran Foley before him) drafted any players – or traded any draft picks away for players – over the objections of Childress.
So I hope Zygi Wilf holds off on any extension talks for a bit. Let’s see how the rest of the season plays out and how Chilly and his team performs if they make the playoffs again. But even now, I think there’s an argument to be made for keeping Childress as head coach beyond the five years he signed on for. That’s something I didn’t think I’d ever write on this blog.
If this comes to pass, I expect a lot of Viking fans will consider it a mistake because, no matter what the win-loss record says, most Viking fans think Chilly has done less with more than any Vikings coach in team history.
There’s some validity in such thinking and I’ve mused a couple of times on this blog that the Vikings would be better off with a different head coach. The 6-1 start to the 2009 season has cooled some of the grousing about Chilly among the Vikings fan base. But even as the team is winning, Childress’ game-day coaching decisions continue to inspire doubt about his head coaching ability.
For example, his use of challenges are too often of the high-risk, low-reward variety. Proper clock management continues to be a problem. And Childress remains a conservative guy, despite his background as an offensive coordinator and with an offence loaded with firepower, and the playcalling often reflects this – to the Vikings detriment. The Vikings build up what should be sizable leads on opponents but they rarely seem able to finish them off.
Those are the big debits in Childress’ ledger. However, let’s give Childress his due – he’s done a very good job rebuilding the talent base on the Vikings roster and that’s a very important part of his job description. You don’t make the playoffs and win Super Bowls in the NFL without talent.
Of course, you have to give some of the credit for the acquisition of that talent to the Vikings scouts and player personnel guys, particularly Rick Spielman and, yes, even the dearly departed Fran Foley. Still, I don’t think the Vikings are signing any free agents that Childress hasn’t identified as players he’s wanted on his team. And Childress is the guy these free agents meet, talk with and know they have to live with when they’re being courted by the Vikes. If they weren’t buying what Childress was selling, they wouldn’t be signing here – although Wilf’s fat wallet certainly helps.
Look at the free agents the Vikings have brought in since Childress arrived in 2006. In his first year the Vikings signed All-Pro offensive guard Steve Hutchinson, steady linebacker Ben Leber and the even steadier kicker Ryan Longwell. In 2007, the Vikings brought in tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, which looked like an expensive mistake at the time, but Shiancoe has emerged as a valuable player. In 2008 the Vikings signed the deep receiving threat they desperately needed in Bernard Berrian, and safety Madieu Williams. And while they missed out on wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year, Childress was able to convince Brett Favre to come out of retirement. That’s worked out pretty well.
The Vikings have also made some astute draft picks since Childress joined the Vikings and there was the big trade for Jared Allen. Again, you can’t give all the credit here to Childress. But just like with the free agent signings, I doubt Rick Speilman (or Fran Foley before him) drafted any players – or traded any draft picks away for players – over the objections of Childress.
So I hope Zygi Wilf holds off on any extension talks for a bit. Let’s see how the rest of the season plays out and how Chilly and his team performs if they make the playoffs again. But even now, I think there’s an argument to be made for keeping Childress as head coach beyond the five years he signed on for. That’s something I didn’t think I’d ever write on this blog.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Oh well
I’m a little sour by how it all went down, but I'm not entirely displeased with Sunday’s 27-17 loss to the Steelers. I do feel the football gods did not treat the Vikings kindly in this game.
The Vikings defence played its most complete game of the season and held a very good Pittsburgh offence to 13 points. Our coverage units did a solid job, the offensive line held up well against the Steelers pass rush and Percy Harvin returned another kickoff for a touchdown. I think the Vikings were (slightly) the better team. Yet they lost this game on two – I won’t call them fluky, just rare – turnovers returned by the Steelers defence for touchdowns.
One occurred after a questionable tripping call on Jeff Dugan wiped out a Sidney Rice score that would have given the Vikes a 17-13 lead (this was not a good series for Ron Winter’s officiating crew. The holding call on Bryant McKinnie earlier in the drive was awful and they incorrectly ruled a crucial third down catch by Rice as out-of-bounds, which was challenged and subsequently reversed.) The other turnover came when a screen pass went through the hands of the sure-handed Chester Taylor and was smartly picked off by linebacker Keyaron Fox.
However, the Vikings can’t blame the football gods for everything. The team committed 11 costly penalties and the offence, which has been so good the past three weeks, had a horrible first half where it produced one great drive, two three-and-outs, three six-and-outs and one kneeldown at the end of the half. The unit had too many downs with negative or minimal gains in the first half, it hurt itself with several false start penalties and Brett Favre really wasn’t sharp - off-target on quite a few makeable throws.
I was also surprised by how often the Vikings chose to pass on first and second down and didn’t put the ball in Adrian Peterson’s hands. That could simply be a function of the Vikings taking what the Steelers defence was giving them. But I don’t think the Vikings coaching staff wants Favre to throw the ball 51 times as he did in this game.
Still, this loss isn’t a killer and it probably serves them well as they head to Lambeau Field to play the Packers next Sunday. If the Vikings defence we saw today against Pittsburgh shows up against Green Bay and the Vikings get an offensive performance more like what we saw in the first Vikes-Packers game, Minnesota could have its first sweep of the Packers in Brad Childress’ tenure as head coach of the Vikings. That is what I’ll be taking away from this loss.
Update!
And for your reading pleasure, I link to this sportswriting masterpiece by CBS Sportsline's Pete Prisco.
I wondered how long it would take for some sportswriters to work the "Favre's breaking down again" angle if the Vikings lost a game on a Favre turnover or two. It turns out it took only a couple of hours after this game.
I don't like Prisco as a writer, but the logic in this article seems bad even for him. Those two turnovers are both on Favre? It's all his fault. Really?
The Vikings defence played its most complete game of the season and held a very good Pittsburgh offence to 13 points. Our coverage units did a solid job, the offensive line held up well against the Steelers pass rush and Percy Harvin returned another kickoff for a touchdown. I think the Vikings were (slightly) the better team. Yet they lost this game on two – I won’t call them fluky, just rare – turnovers returned by the Steelers defence for touchdowns.
One occurred after a questionable tripping call on Jeff Dugan wiped out a Sidney Rice score that would have given the Vikes a 17-13 lead (this was not a good series for Ron Winter’s officiating crew. The holding call on Bryant McKinnie earlier in the drive was awful and they incorrectly ruled a crucial third down catch by Rice as out-of-bounds, which was challenged and subsequently reversed.) The other turnover came when a screen pass went through the hands of the sure-handed Chester Taylor and was smartly picked off by linebacker Keyaron Fox.
However, the Vikings can’t blame the football gods for everything. The team committed 11 costly penalties and the offence, which has been so good the past three weeks, had a horrible first half where it produced one great drive, two three-and-outs, three six-and-outs and one kneeldown at the end of the half. The unit had too many downs with negative or minimal gains in the first half, it hurt itself with several false start penalties and Brett Favre really wasn’t sharp - off-target on quite a few makeable throws.
I was also surprised by how often the Vikings chose to pass on first and second down and didn’t put the ball in Adrian Peterson’s hands. That could simply be a function of the Vikings taking what the Steelers defence was giving them. But I don’t think the Vikings coaching staff wants Favre to throw the ball 51 times as he did in this game.
Still, this loss isn’t a killer and it probably serves them well as they head to Lambeau Field to play the Packers next Sunday. If the Vikings defence we saw today against Pittsburgh shows up against Green Bay and the Vikings get an offensive performance more like what we saw in the first Vikes-Packers game, Minnesota could have its first sweep of the Packers in Brad Childress’ tenure as head coach of the Vikings. That is what I’ll be taking away from this loss.
Update!
And for your reading pleasure, I link to this sportswriting masterpiece by CBS Sportsline's Pete Prisco.
I wondered how long it would take for some sportswriters to work the "Favre's breaking down again" angle if the Vikings lost a game on a Favre turnover or two. It turns out it took only a couple of hours after this game.
I don't like Prisco as a writer, but the logic in this article seems bad even for him. Those two turnovers are both on Favre? It's all his fault. Really?
Friday, October 23, 2009
Friday's football post
Vikings – Steelers
What kind of world do we live in where a Minnesota Vikings team coached by Brad Childress has an offence that is performing better than its defence?
Yes, the 2009 season has not gone quite as I expected it would. While I did expect the Vikings to be at least 5-1 at this point, what I didn’t expect was how the team has gotten there. The Vikes offence has been way better than I expected it to be and the team is averaging 31.5 points per game. Meanwhile the defence – particularly the pass defence – is looking ordinary and was greatly responsible for turning what should have been two comfortable wins against Green Bay and Baltimore into nail biters.
Now the Vikings face the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road this Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger is completing 72.5 per cent of his passes and leads the league in passing yardage. Hines Ward is leading the league in receiving yards with 599. Antoine Winfield probably won’t play because of a sprained ankle. Not good.
But there’s plenty for the Steelers fans to worry about as well. Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen and Brett Favre are three names and I could go on. After being unable to watch the Vikings play the previous two weeks, I am really, really looking forward to watching this one. Really.
Here is what worries me and what heartens me about this tough game for the Vikings.
What worries me about this game
Heinz Field: A tough place for visiting teams to play. Bad footing. Swirling winds. Noisy fans. The field was re-sodded this week. That could make footing tricky for the players. And the player who might be most affected by it is kicker Ryan Longwell. The former Packer is very dependable kicking from any distance on field goals. He’s 11-12 this season in field goal attempts and the Vikings depend on him to turn those attempts into three points.
But he’s not used to kicking on Heinz Field’s tricky turf. A slip or a bad foot plant on the re-sodded Heinz Field turf could lead to a crucial miss of a field goal or two that we’re used to Longwell making. And a three point or six point swing could be huge in this game.
Benny Sapp: Antoine Winfield is listed as doubtful for this game. It’s unlikely he’ll play and it looks like nickel back Sapp will start in his place. Winfield is a big loss because of his value both in defending the run and the pass. When teams run on the Vikings, Winfield prevents numerous positive gains with his tackling. When teams pass on the Vikings, Winfield isn’t a shutdown corner opposing teams avoid throwing at, but he does make plays on the ball and when receivers catch the ball on him, there are no yards after the catch. Winfield takes them down where they stand. Quickly.
But with Winfield out, not only will teams complete more balls against a replacement like Sapp, but the completions they get will go for longer gains because the replacement can’t tackle as well as Winfield. And let’s not even think about what Karl Paymah is incapable of getting lots of reps as the nickel back. Might be a good time to throw rookie Asher Allen into the fire.
Ben Roethlisberger’s mobility: Mobile quarterbacks give everyone problems. But Roethlisberger ability to move around in the pocket, avoid pass rushers, wait for his receivers to get open and then complete passes is unreal. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information department, Big Ben has a 156.3 passer rating on pass attempts outside the pocket (a perfect rating is 158.3.)There will be plenty of times on Sunday when we will be frustrated seeing Roethlisberger escapes a sack and completes a pass against the Vikings.
What heartens me about this game
Brett Favre’s play on third downs: The Vikings have converted 39 of 84 third down plays into first downs after six games – a conversion rate of 46.4 per cent. Only two teams in the NFL have done it better (Miami is surprisingly #1 at 56 per cent, Indy is #2 at 50.8) and I have to believe this is a huge improvement over what the Vikings did last year in these situations (although I haven’t looked it up.) I also have to think Favre’s a major reason for the improvement.
The Vikings simply haven’t had a quarterback who was capable of doing the things Favre does – like read defensive coverages quickly, recognize blitzes, deliver the ball with zip and accuracy into tight spots – in some time. Third down is no longer a down to be feared for the Vikings offence and Favre’s proficiency is keeping drives alive and leading to more points. The Steelers defence will have to succeed where others have failed in this area to win this game.
A deep receiving corps: While this has a lot to do with Favre, it’s worth pointing out the Vikings have six players with at least 14 catches and four with at least 20. There is no one receiver opponents can focus on to stop the Vikings passing game. The Steelers cannot cover them all and Favre will find whomever is open. As long as Favre has enough time to throw on Sunday, the Vikings should be able to move the ball and produce points.
Familiarity playing against the 3-4: When the 2009 schedule was announced I was concerned about how the Vikings would handle Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defence, with it’s active linebackers and it’s tendency to blitz from all angles. But including pre-season games, the Vikings have faced six teams who play the 3-4 and they’ve generally handled it pretty well.
Plus, Favre’s been there and done that. He’s not going to get terribly confused by whatever Dick LeBeau and the Steelers throw at him. The Vikings offensive line’s ability to pick up blitzes always concerns me, but this is not a matchup I fear anymore. I’m concerned (especially with Troy Polamalu back in the lineup) but not fearful.
Other stuff
We’ve all heard how the Vikings have taken advantage of a weak early schedule to race out to an undefeated record. I won’t dispute that, but consider the Steelers four wins have come against Tennessee (0-6), Detroit (1-5), Cleveland (1-5) and San Diego (2-3.) Let’s not overestimate how good Pittsburgh really is.
Normally, I like to let reason guide my predictions. But in a season where Brett Favre is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, I think reason goes out the window. So while I’d normally expect the Steelers to win this one at home, my hunch is the Vikings will continue to roll and the Vikings defence will play its best game of the season and for the first time in 2009, be the key factor in a Vikings win – shutting down a potent Pittsburgh offence even when it appears they shouldn’t.
Vikings 27 – Steelers 20
What kind of world do we live in where a Minnesota Vikings team coached by Brad Childress has an offence that is performing better than its defence?
Yes, the 2009 season has not gone quite as I expected it would. While I did expect the Vikings to be at least 5-1 at this point, what I didn’t expect was how the team has gotten there. The Vikes offence has been way better than I expected it to be and the team is averaging 31.5 points per game. Meanwhile the defence – particularly the pass defence – is looking ordinary and was greatly responsible for turning what should have been two comfortable wins against Green Bay and Baltimore into nail biters.
Now the Vikings face the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road this Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger is completing 72.5 per cent of his passes and leads the league in passing yardage. Hines Ward is leading the league in receiving yards with 599. Antoine Winfield probably won’t play because of a sprained ankle. Not good.
But there’s plenty for the Steelers fans to worry about as well. Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen and Brett Favre are three names and I could go on. After being unable to watch the Vikings play the previous two weeks, I am really, really looking forward to watching this one. Really.
Here is what worries me and what heartens me about this tough game for the Vikings.
What worries me about this game
Heinz Field: A tough place for visiting teams to play. Bad footing. Swirling winds. Noisy fans. The field was re-sodded this week. That could make footing tricky for the players. And the player who might be most affected by it is kicker Ryan Longwell. The former Packer is very dependable kicking from any distance on field goals. He’s 11-12 this season in field goal attempts and the Vikings depend on him to turn those attempts into three points.
But he’s not used to kicking on Heinz Field’s tricky turf. A slip or a bad foot plant on the re-sodded Heinz Field turf could lead to a crucial miss of a field goal or two that we’re used to Longwell making. And a three point or six point swing could be huge in this game.
Benny Sapp: Antoine Winfield is listed as doubtful for this game. It’s unlikely he’ll play and it looks like nickel back Sapp will start in his place. Winfield is a big loss because of his value both in defending the run and the pass. When teams run on the Vikings, Winfield prevents numerous positive gains with his tackling. When teams pass on the Vikings, Winfield isn’t a shutdown corner opposing teams avoid throwing at, but he does make plays on the ball and when receivers catch the ball on him, there are no yards after the catch. Winfield takes them down where they stand. Quickly.
But with Winfield out, not only will teams complete more balls against a replacement like Sapp, but the completions they get will go for longer gains because the replacement can’t tackle as well as Winfield. And let’s not even think about what Karl Paymah is incapable of getting lots of reps as the nickel back. Might be a good time to throw rookie Asher Allen into the fire.
Ben Roethlisberger’s mobility: Mobile quarterbacks give everyone problems. But Roethlisberger ability to move around in the pocket, avoid pass rushers, wait for his receivers to get open and then complete passes is unreal. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information department, Big Ben has a 156.3 passer rating on pass attempts outside the pocket (a perfect rating is 158.3.)There will be plenty of times on Sunday when we will be frustrated seeing Roethlisberger escapes a sack and completes a pass against the Vikings.
What heartens me about this game
Brett Favre’s play on third downs: The Vikings have converted 39 of 84 third down plays into first downs after six games – a conversion rate of 46.4 per cent. Only two teams in the NFL have done it better (Miami is surprisingly #1 at 56 per cent, Indy is #2 at 50.8) and I have to believe this is a huge improvement over what the Vikings did last year in these situations (although I haven’t looked it up.) I also have to think Favre’s a major reason for the improvement.
The Vikings simply haven’t had a quarterback who was capable of doing the things Favre does – like read defensive coverages quickly, recognize blitzes, deliver the ball with zip and accuracy into tight spots – in some time. Third down is no longer a down to be feared for the Vikings offence and Favre’s proficiency is keeping drives alive and leading to more points. The Steelers defence will have to succeed where others have failed in this area to win this game.
A deep receiving corps: While this has a lot to do with Favre, it’s worth pointing out the Vikings have six players with at least 14 catches and four with at least 20. There is no one receiver opponents can focus on to stop the Vikings passing game. The Steelers cannot cover them all and Favre will find whomever is open. As long as Favre has enough time to throw on Sunday, the Vikings should be able to move the ball and produce points.
Familiarity playing against the 3-4: When the 2009 schedule was announced I was concerned about how the Vikings would handle Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defence, with it’s active linebackers and it’s tendency to blitz from all angles. But including pre-season games, the Vikings have faced six teams who play the 3-4 and they’ve generally handled it pretty well.
Plus, Favre’s been there and done that. He’s not going to get terribly confused by whatever Dick LeBeau and the Steelers throw at him. The Vikings offensive line’s ability to pick up blitzes always concerns me, but this is not a matchup I fear anymore. I’m concerned (especially with Troy Polamalu back in the lineup) but not fearful.
Other stuff
We’ve all heard how the Vikings have taken advantage of a weak early schedule to race out to an undefeated record. I won’t dispute that, but consider the Steelers four wins have come against Tennessee (0-6), Detroit (1-5), Cleveland (1-5) and San Diego (2-3.) Let’s not overestimate how good Pittsburgh really is.
Normally, I like to let reason guide my predictions. But in a season where Brett Favre is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, I think reason goes out the window. So while I’d normally expect the Steelers to win this one at home, my hunch is the Vikings will continue to roll and the Vikings defence will play its best game of the season and for the first time in 2009, be the key factor in a Vikings win – shutting down a potent Pittsburgh offence even when it appears they shouldn’t.
Vikings 27 – Steelers 20
Monday, October 19, 2009
2009 looking a bit like 1998 ....
And I mean that both in good and bad ways.
I was not able to watch Sunday's 33-31 win over Baltimore as I'm still in Australia. But I was horrified to find out the Vikings blew a 27-10 lead at home after reading various game recaps.
Anyway, 6-0 is great, and this Vikings team is resembling the great Vikings team of 1998, which is mostly good, except for one thing.
First the good. Just as we are seeing this season, the '98 Vikings had a great offence. It could run and throw the ball and score gobs of points. And its defence had a knack for creating turnovers and making big plays. But ....
.... it also giving up gobs of yardage and a fair bit of points against good offensive teams. It wasn't a dominant unit. And against Atlanta - a very good offensive team in 1998 - it couldn't stop them when it mattered late in the game.
The thing is though, the Vikings defence in 1998 was an average unit, both stats-wise and talent-wise. John Randle, Ed McDaniel and Robert Griffith were fine players, but that was about it for top-shelf talent. The 2009 Vikings defence has All-Pro talent up to its ears, but it doesn't seem to be playing up to that talent all the time. And once again, that could cost the Vikings dearly when they face a very good offensive team (think New Orleans) when it matters most.
But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's Brad Childress' play-calling or a lack of a killer instinct. I don't know.
What I do know is giving up 200-plus passing yards to the likes of Kyle Boller and 380 passing yards to the likes of Joe Flacco is cause for concern - much concern.
I was not able to watch Sunday's 33-31 win over Baltimore as I'm still in Australia. But I was horrified to find out the Vikings blew a 27-10 lead at home after reading various game recaps.
Anyway, 6-0 is great, and this Vikings team is resembling the great Vikings team of 1998, which is mostly good, except for one thing.
First the good. Just as we are seeing this season, the '98 Vikings had a great offence. It could run and throw the ball and score gobs of points. And its defence had a knack for creating turnovers and making big plays. But ....
.... it also giving up gobs of yardage and a fair bit of points against good offensive teams. It wasn't a dominant unit. And against Atlanta - a very good offensive team in 1998 - it couldn't stop them when it mattered late in the game.
The thing is though, the Vikings defence in 1998 was an average unit, both stats-wise and talent-wise. John Randle, Ed McDaniel and Robert Griffith were fine players, but that was about it for top-shelf talent. The 2009 Vikings defence has All-Pro talent up to its ears, but it doesn't seem to be playing up to that talent all the time. And once again, that could cost the Vikings dearly when they face a very good offensive team (think New Orleans) when it matters most.
But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's Brad Childress' play-calling or a lack of a killer instinct. I don't know.
What I do know is giving up 200-plus passing yards to the likes of Kyle Boller and 380 passing yards to the likes of Joe Flacco is cause for concern - much concern.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Friday's football post
Vikings-Ravens
I apologize for the lack of activity on the ole' blog of late. But things have been busy here Down Under at the World Masters Games. However, it wraps up tomorrow for me and maybe I'll have more time to post after that. They even have a Fox sports channel here that shows live NFL games (along with a lot of Aussie and New Zealand rugby games), so maybe I'll be able to catch the Vikings-Ravens game live, which would be a bonus.
I haven't thought a great deal about the game this week. But after watching Baltimore play a couple of times in previous weeks, some things have struck me about them.
1. This isn't last year's Baltimore Ravens - a team that wins with defence, turnovers and an offence that tries not to get in the way. Quarterback Joe Flacco looks vastly improved from his rookie year and is being asked to make throws he wasn't last year. He's also completing a lot of those throws. If you were expecting him to be the weak link the Vikings can harrass and exploit, you may be disappointed.
2. And the running combo of Willis McGahee and Ray Rice is formidable. It will test a Vikings run defence that doesn't look quite as dominating as it has the past three years. Actually, the Baltimore offence may provide a stiffer test for the Vikings D than the Packers did. The Ravens seem like a more balanced unit so far.
Of course, this isn't last year's (or the 2007 or the 2006) Vikings either. A game like this would have frightened me last year because you knew the Vikes could not throw the ball against a team like Baltimore. Or if it did try to throw the ball, Gus Frerotte would be throwing up at least a couple of pick-sixes.
Not so this season. The addition of Brett Favre has changed everything for the Vikings offence. It's no longer so simple for opposing defences to just focus on stopping Adrian Peterson to stop the Vikings offence. And what I'm liking thus far is how Favre is using multiple targets to move the ball down the field via the pass. It's not just one guy doing the damage, it's several guys. Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor, Visanthe Shiancoe - they are all contributing in the passing game. That's tough for a defence to defend.
The Ravens have played a tougher schedule than the Vikings to this point, but I don't know how much that will help them here. The Vikings appear to be very good as well. They should be confident playing at home in the Metrodome and I'm sure they'll relish the challenge of playing a solid football team like the Ravens. It should bring out the best in them, as opposed to what playing a St. Louis or a Cleveland does to a team.
I expect this one to be close, but as long as Peterson holds onto the ball and Favre doesn't throw to the wrong jerseys, the Vikings will move the ball well enough and stop the Ravens offence enough to win a squeaker. It will be a win that erases our concerns - at least for one week - about how the Vikings stack up against the "elite" of the NFL. We may even conclude with a win that the Vikings are part of that exclusive club.
Vikings 24 - Ravens 21
I apologize for the lack of activity on the ole' blog of late. But things have been busy here Down Under at the World Masters Games. However, it wraps up tomorrow for me and maybe I'll have more time to post after that. They even have a Fox sports channel here that shows live NFL games (along with a lot of Aussie and New Zealand rugby games), so maybe I'll be able to catch the Vikings-Ravens game live, which would be a bonus.
I haven't thought a great deal about the game this week. But after watching Baltimore play a couple of times in previous weeks, some things have struck me about them.
1. This isn't last year's Baltimore Ravens - a team that wins with defence, turnovers and an offence that tries not to get in the way. Quarterback Joe Flacco looks vastly improved from his rookie year and is being asked to make throws he wasn't last year. He's also completing a lot of those throws. If you were expecting him to be the weak link the Vikings can harrass and exploit, you may be disappointed.
2. And the running combo of Willis McGahee and Ray Rice is formidable. It will test a Vikings run defence that doesn't look quite as dominating as it has the past three years. Actually, the Baltimore offence may provide a stiffer test for the Vikings D than the Packers did. The Ravens seem like a more balanced unit so far.
Of course, this isn't last year's (or the 2007 or the 2006) Vikings either. A game like this would have frightened me last year because you knew the Vikes could not throw the ball against a team like Baltimore. Or if it did try to throw the ball, Gus Frerotte would be throwing up at least a couple of pick-sixes.
Not so this season. The addition of Brett Favre has changed everything for the Vikings offence. It's no longer so simple for opposing defences to just focus on stopping Adrian Peterson to stop the Vikings offence. And what I'm liking thus far is how Favre is using multiple targets to move the ball down the field via the pass. It's not just one guy doing the damage, it's several guys. Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor, Visanthe Shiancoe - they are all contributing in the passing game. That's tough for a defence to defend.
The Ravens have played a tougher schedule than the Vikings to this point, but I don't know how much that will help them here. The Vikings appear to be very good as well. They should be confident playing at home in the Metrodome and I'm sure they'll relish the challenge of playing a solid football team like the Ravens. It should bring out the best in them, as opposed to what playing a St. Louis or a Cleveland does to a team.
I expect this one to be close, but as long as Peterson holds onto the ball and Favre doesn't throw to the wrong jerseys, the Vikings will move the ball well enough and stop the Ravens offence enough to win a squeaker. It will be a win that erases our concerns - at least for one week - about how the Vikings stack up against the "elite" of the NFL. We may even conclude with a win that the Vikings are part of that exclusive club.
Vikings 24 - Ravens 21
Monday, October 12, 2009
5-0 baby!
The 38-10 win over St. Louis on Sunday was the first Vikings game I haven't been able to watch in two-plus years.
So with that in mind, I'll leave it up to any Viking fans who actually watched the game to provide their input on what this latest win tells us about the 2009 Minnesota Vikings.
What say you - fans of the purple? What were the positives coming out of this blowout? What were the negatives? Judging from the game recap I read, St. Louis was able to march the ball on the Vikings D, but they just couldn't stop making turnovers. How can a team as bad as St. Louis move the ball on our defence?
Whatever, 5-0 still feels good. Real good.
So with that in mind, I'll leave it up to any Viking fans who actually watched the game to provide their input on what this latest win tells us about the 2009 Minnesota Vikings.
What say you - fans of the purple? What were the positives coming out of this blowout? What were the negatives? Judging from the game recap I read, St. Louis was able to march the ball on the Vikings D, but they just couldn't stop making turnovers. How can a team as bad as St. Louis move the ball on our defence?
Whatever, 5-0 still feels good. Real good.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Friday's football post
Vikings – Rams
Let’s keep this short.
The St. Louis Rams are terrible. It will be a good season for them if they manage to win two games. They’re averaging six (six!) points per game and have been shut out twice. It’s not much better defensively, where the Rams have given up an average of 27 points per game this season. It’s so bad in St. Louis, Russ Limbaugh has put in an offer to buy the team. Rams fans have to feel good about the prospect of that.
For the Rams to win this one, two things will have to happen: running back Steven Jackson will have to have a big game and the Vikings must self-destruct with special teams gaffes and multiple turnovers on offence that lead to easy Rams scores.
Could it happen? Yes. Do I expect it to happen? No.
Vikings 35 – Rams 10 (with the Rams touchdown coming in garbage time.)
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good
How great is it to have the Vikings first three road games come against teams that are a combined 1-11 this season?
The Vikings after four games
What’s been the most encouraging development of the young Viking season?
One could point to how comfortable Percy Harvin has looked in the pro game or the emergence of a dangerous Vikings return game. But for me, it’s the rapport Brett Favre is developing with third-year wide receiver Sidney Rice.
I’ve liked Rice’s skill set ever since I saw him first play. And I felt with an actual NFL quarterback throwing to him, he could be an effective number #2 or possibly number #1(a) receiving threat the Vikings have needed since Randy Moss was traded away.
I wouldn’t say he’s there yet. But Rice’s stats have been solid the past couple of games and with his hands, his size and his leaping ability, plus the fact Favre obviously likes to throw to him, I think Rice is getting there. This is great news for the Vikings passing game and great news for the Vikings offence.
Turf talk
I know the Vikings might only be playing at the Metrodome for another couple of seasons, but after watching Green Bay cornerback Wil Blackmon crumple to the turf almost untouched, sustaining a season-ending ACL injury, I wonder if the Vikings and the group who runs the Metrodome should look at getting new turf in there ASAP?
I think I read a couple of years ago in a survey of NFL players, that the players ranked the Metrodome field turf as the worst in the NFL. This is terribly anecdotal, but it seems to me too many players have been lost to serious knee injuries in incidents similar to Blackmon's of late. It happened to the Packers Nick Barnett last year and Heath Farwell also. It happened to Chad Greenway in 2006.
So is the Metrodome turf just that much worse than others in the NFL?
I don’t know. But with the Vikings having a certain franchise player who makes the kind of violent cuts that can sometimes lead to these kinds of serious knee injuries, if I were Zygi Wilf, I’d be pestering the sports commission that runs the Metrodome to find a playing surface that is statistically proven to reduce knee injuries. I’m betting the Metrodome turf isn’t one of them.
Now if you will excuse me, I've got to find some wood to knock on.
Let’s keep this short.
The St. Louis Rams are terrible. It will be a good season for them if they manage to win two games. They’re averaging six (six!) points per game and have been shut out twice. It’s not much better defensively, where the Rams have given up an average of 27 points per game this season. It’s so bad in St. Louis, Russ Limbaugh has put in an offer to buy the team. Rams fans have to feel good about the prospect of that.
For the Rams to win this one, two things will have to happen: running back Steven Jackson will have to have a big game and the Vikings must self-destruct with special teams gaffes and multiple turnovers on offence that lead to easy Rams scores.
Could it happen? Yes. Do I expect it to happen? No.
Vikings 35 – Rams 10 (with the Rams touchdown coming in garbage time.)
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good
How great is it to have the Vikings first three road games come against teams that are a combined 1-11 this season?
The Vikings after four games
What’s been the most encouraging development of the young Viking season?
One could point to how comfortable Percy Harvin has looked in the pro game or the emergence of a dangerous Vikings return game. But for me, it’s the rapport Brett Favre is developing with third-year wide receiver Sidney Rice.
I’ve liked Rice’s skill set ever since I saw him first play. And I felt with an actual NFL quarterback throwing to him, he could be an effective number #2 or possibly number #1(a) receiving threat the Vikings have needed since Randy Moss was traded away.
I wouldn’t say he’s there yet. But Rice’s stats have been solid the past couple of games and with his hands, his size and his leaping ability, plus the fact Favre obviously likes to throw to him, I think Rice is getting there. This is great news for the Vikings passing game and great news for the Vikings offence.
Turf talk
I know the Vikings might only be playing at the Metrodome for another couple of seasons, but after watching Green Bay cornerback Wil Blackmon crumple to the turf almost untouched, sustaining a season-ending ACL injury, I wonder if the Vikings and the group who runs the Metrodome should look at getting new turf in there ASAP?
I think I read a couple of years ago in a survey of NFL players, that the players ranked the Metrodome field turf as the worst in the NFL. This is terribly anecdotal, but it seems to me too many players have been lost to serious knee injuries in incidents similar to Blackmon's of late. It happened to the Packers Nick Barnett last year and Heath Farwell also. It happened to Chad Greenway in 2006.
So is the Metrodome turf just that much worse than others in the NFL?
I don’t know. But with the Vikings having a certain franchise player who makes the kind of violent cuts that can sometimes lead to these kinds of serious knee injuries, if I were Zygi Wilf, I’d be pestering the sports commission that runs the Metrodome to find a playing surface that is statistically proven to reduce knee injuries. I’m betting the Metrodome turf isn’t one of them.
Now if you will excuse me, I've got to find some wood to knock on.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Impressions of the NFC North
I’ve watched each NFC North team play at least twice now and I’ve formed some opinions about each squad. Here they are.
Vikings (4-0):
The good: Brett Favre’s play the past two games gives me hope we have a passing game. His stats against the Packers aside, Adrian Peterson has been great. So has Jared Allen. Percy Harvin’s looked pretty good and the special teams’ play has improved (and it needs to improve more – the coverage units are still giving up too many long returns).
The bad: Not much, although I feel the defence has yet to play up to its potential. Maybe they’re getting lazy with all the points the Vikings offence is scoring. Other than that, I guess the recent play of safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson has me a bit concerned.
However, this team hasn’t played its best football yet and it’s still 4-0. There are some big tests coming up that will determine how good this team really is. But I think they are pretty good – as long as Favre stays healthy.
Bears (3-1)
Jay Cutler’s play has been so-so in his first four games with Chicago. But when Cutler’s been on, you can see what he brings to the Bears. I don’t believe Chicago’s receivers have gotten a whole lot better since last year. But they are more productive. And that’s thanks to Cutler. His arm strength, his fearlessness and his ability to make fantastic throws under duress makes the Earl Bennett’s and Devin Hester’s look better than they actually are. (Note: rookie Johnny Knox does look like a player though.) Cutler can make throws Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman couldn’t make in year’s past.
Also noteworthy: the Bears defence has looked like its 2006 self at times. So the Bears are dangerous. My prediction of a 9-7 season for them might have been off by a couple of games.
Packers (2-2)
My prediction of an 11-5 record and a divisional title for Green Bay looks a little off as well. I like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offensive capabilities. But after watching that offensive line in action Monday night, I don’t think they can win consistently with that going on. I also don’t think they can keep Rodgers out of the ER with that going on. The new 3-4 defence giving up 30 points against the Vikings can’t be encouraging for Packers fans, either.
Lions (1-3)
Assuming Matt Stafford’s kneecap problem doesn’t cost him too many games, the Lions could be a fun team to watch. Stafford looks legit. He’s missing on too many makeable throws right now, but the Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson combination looked lethal against the Bears last Sunday. Rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew is also a talent. The Lions will score points, but because the defence is still pretty bad, they’ll give them up, too. Detroit will be in a lot of shootouts. Fun times.
Familiar faces in new places
The Pro Football Reference site talks about the great start Darren Sharper is having with the New Orleans Saints.
I guess this is where I’m supposed to rant about the terrible mistake the Vikings made letting Sharper go this offseason. But I’m not going to do it.
If Sharper were still a Viking, I’m confident he wouldn’t be doing what he’s done with the Saints. Sharper was a weak link (along with linebacker Napoleon Harris) on an otherwise excellent defence in 2008. Here were the debits on his ledger: He wasn’t much for tackling anybody, he looked like he’d lost two (maybe even three) steps and his playmaking ability (read: making interceptions) had pretty much disappeared since the Vikings switched to the Cover Two scheme in 2006.
So I find no fault in what the Vikings didn’t do with Sharper – namely re-signing him. Perhaps the mistake they did make was thinking Tyrell Johnson was ready to replace him, because what, exactly, has Johnson done so far this season?
MIA Viking bloggers
Most regular Viking blog readers already know this, but Joe Fischer, the mastermind behind the Pacifist Viking site, has taken a leave of absence from writing because his little boy broke his leg recently. I wish the little fella' all the best in his recovery. I also wish PV a speedy return to blogging. Holy Hitter is doing a nice job in relief, but I miss Fischer’s level-headed analysis on the Vikings.
Another long-time Viking blogger on hiatus is The Ragnarok’s T-Bird. He went three months without posting in the spring before coming back to us. But the return was brief. He's now gone another month without posting.
I don’t mean to call out T-Bird here – none of us are getting paid for this and he can post as much as he pleases. But I always enjoy his previews during the season and his takes on some of the overlooked aspects of the Vikings, like this post about their 2008 return game.
Where have you gone T-Bird? Has the sight of Favre wearing purple sucked out your enthusiasm for all things Vikings-related?
Don’t know if you care, but here goes ....
It snowed in Yellowknife today, making it the perfect time to take a vacation to Australia.
Which is what I’m doing. As I mentioned in a post last week, I’ll be in Sydney, Australia for the next two weeks competing in the World Masters Games in the sport of fastball. (Before you start thinking I’m some kind of “elite” athlete, full disclosure here – anybody can enter these games. You just need to pay your registration fee and be willing to spend 16 straight hours on an airplane.)
Anyway, while the stay in Oz will do wonders for my tan, it could make blogging hit and miss – most likely, miss – while I’m there. Between the 12-hour-or-so time difference between Sydney and the North American midwest and the fact there will likely be few sports bars showing the Vikings-Rams game this week, it’s going to be tough to post regularly. I still plan to, but if it doesn’t happen, just assume I’m either playing ball, drinking to excess, finishing off a Vegemite sandwich or I’ve been eaten by a great white shark.
Vikings (4-0):
The good: Brett Favre’s play the past two games gives me hope we have a passing game. His stats against the Packers aside, Adrian Peterson has been great. So has Jared Allen. Percy Harvin’s looked pretty good and the special teams’ play has improved (and it needs to improve more – the coverage units are still giving up too many long returns).
The bad: Not much, although I feel the defence has yet to play up to its potential. Maybe they’re getting lazy with all the points the Vikings offence is scoring. Other than that, I guess the recent play of safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson has me a bit concerned.
However, this team hasn’t played its best football yet and it’s still 4-0. There are some big tests coming up that will determine how good this team really is. But I think they are pretty good – as long as Favre stays healthy.
Bears (3-1)
Jay Cutler’s play has been so-so in his first four games with Chicago. But when Cutler’s been on, you can see what he brings to the Bears. I don’t believe Chicago’s receivers have gotten a whole lot better since last year. But they are more productive. And that’s thanks to Cutler. His arm strength, his fearlessness and his ability to make fantastic throws under duress makes the Earl Bennett’s and Devin Hester’s look better than they actually are. (Note: rookie Johnny Knox does look like a player though.) Cutler can make throws Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman couldn’t make in year’s past.
Also noteworthy: the Bears defence has looked like its 2006 self at times. So the Bears are dangerous. My prediction of a 9-7 season for them might have been off by a couple of games.
Packers (2-2)
My prediction of an 11-5 record and a divisional title for Green Bay looks a little off as well. I like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offensive capabilities. But after watching that offensive line in action Monday night, I don’t think they can win consistently with that going on. I also don’t think they can keep Rodgers out of the ER with that going on. The new 3-4 defence giving up 30 points against the Vikings can’t be encouraging for Packers fans, either.
Lions (1-3)
Assuming Matt Stafford’s kneecap problem doesn’t cost him too many games, the Lions could be a fun team to watch. Stafford looks legit. He’s missing on too many makeable throws right now, but the Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson combination looked lethal against the Bears last Sunday. Rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew is also a talent. The Lions will score points, but because the defence is still pretty bad, they’ll give them up, too. Detroit will be in a lot of shootouts. Fun times.
Familiar faces in new places
The Pro Football Reference site talks about the great start Darren Sharper is having with the New Orleans Saints.
I guess this is where I’m supposed to rant about the terrible mistake the Vikings made letting Sharper go this offseason. But I’m not going to do it.
If Sharper were still a Viking, I’m confident he wouldn’t be doing what he’s done with the Saints. Sharper was a weak link (along with linebacker Napoleon Harris) on an otherwise excellent defence in 2008. Here were the debits on his ledger: He wasn’t much for tackling anybody, he looked like he’d lost two (maybe even three) steps and his playmaking ability (read: making interceptions) had pretty much disappeared since the Vikings switched to the Cover Two scheme in 2006.
So I find no fault in what the Vikings didn’t do with Sharper – namely re-signing him. Perhaps the mistake they did make was thinking Tyrell Johnson was ready to replace him, because what, exactly, has Johnson done so far this season?
MIA Viking bloggers
Most regular Viking blog readers already know this, but Joe Fischer, the mastermind behind the Pacifist Viking site, has taken a leave of absence from writing because his little boy broke his leg recently. I wish the little fella' all the best in his recovery. I also wish PV a speedy return to blogging. Holy Hitter is doing a nice job in relief, but I miss Fischer’s level-headed analysis on the Vikings.
Another long-time Viking blogger on hiatus is The Ragnarok’s T-Bird. He went three months without posting in the spring before coming back to us. But the return was brief. He's now gone another month without posting.
I don’t mean to call out T-Bird here – none of us are getting paid for this and he can post as much as he pleases. But I always enjoy his previews during the season and his takes on some of the overlooked aspects of the Vikings, like this post about their 2008 return game.
Where have you gone T-Bird? Has the sight of Favre wearing purple sucked out your enthusiasm for all things Vikings-related?
Don’t know if you care, but here goes ....
It snowed in Yellowknife today, making it the perfect time to take a vacation to Australia.
Which is what I’m doing. As I mentioned in a post last week, I’ll be in Sydney, Australia for the next two weeks competing in the World Masters Games in the sport of fastball. (Before you start thinking I’m some kind of “elite” athlete, full disclosure here – anybody can enter these games. You just need to pay your registration fee and be willing to spend 16 straight hours on an airplane.)
Anyway, while the stay in Oz will do wonders for my tan, it could make blogging hit and miss – most likely, miss – while I’m there. Between the 12-hour-or-so time difference between Sydney and the North American midwest and the fact there will likely be few sports bars showing the Vikings-Rams game this week, it’s going to be tough to post regularly. I still plan to, but if it doesn’t happen, just assume I’m either playing ball, drinking to excess, finishing off a Vegemite sandwich or I’ve been eaten by a great white shark.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Drink it in
It’s been a while – 2004 to be exact – since a Vikings quarterback has dropped back to pass the ball and I’ve thought, ‘We’ve got ‘em.’
Yet that’s how I felt Monday night watching Brett Favre – the Minnesota Vikings Brett Favre – slice and dice his old team in a sweet 30-23 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
I don’t think it’s homer hyberbole to say Favre was sensational in this game. He made every throw you’d want a quarterback to make. There was plenty of smoke on the fastball – even the long throws – and he was deadly accurate.
And for the second straight week, Favre answered the question I, and plenty other football fans and writers, had after watching him play prior to last weekend’s 49ers game, namely – could he win a game with his arm anymore? Well, with the Vikings two best offensive weapons of the first three games (Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin) having little success against the Packers, Favre went out and threw for 271 yards, completed 77 per cent of his passes and threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Prior to acquiring Favre, it’s hard to imagine the Vikings winning a game like this with Peterson bottled up as he was. This is what the Vikings have lacked, balance on offence, the threat of moving the ball with the run and the pass. For all my skepticism about this move from the get-go, Favre appears to be giving the Vikings the offensive Holy Grail. Look out NFL if it continues.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t give the Vikings offensive line a lot of credit. The pass protection has been spotty so far this young season, but the Packers pass rushers barely touched Favre in this one. Without that kind of pass protection, it’s doubtful the old man would have been as effective as he was.
On the defensive side of the ball, I imagine some people will focus on the fact Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers threw for 384 yards and the Packers moved the ball quite effectively against the Vikings for much of the game.
That is a concern. But the Vikings defence also sacked Rodgers eight times, recorded a safety, forced two key turnovers deep in Vikings territory and had a huge goal line stand in the third quarter when the Packers were close to cutting into a 28-14 lead. The unit gave up a lot of yards, but it was also as responsible for this win as much as Favre and the Vikings offence was.
So overall, not much to complain about here. However, if you will indulge me for a brief moment, I must say that when you are up by 10 points with just over three minutes left in the game, and your opponent has no timeouts left and you’ve decided to go conservative with basic runs the previous two plays, RUN THE FUCKING BALL ONE MORE TIME AND KILL SOME PRECIOUS TIME OFF THE CLOCK!
Throwing a low percentage deep ball to Bernard Berrian at that point was doing the Packers a huge favor. It almost cost the Vikings a well-earned lead. But I don’t blame Brad Childress or offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell on that play. I think this was a case of Favre doing one of his wacky gunslinger-type moves. As great as he played against Green Bay, it might be time for Chilly to have a short chat with the ole’ country boy about game management again if that was the case.
But I’ll stop it right there with the negativity. The Vikings are 4-0, in first place in the NFC North and it looks like they’ve (finally) got a passing game.
Life is good. Being a Vikings fan right now is good. Drink it in, people. Drink it in.
Yet that’s how I felt Monday night watching Brett Favre – the Minnesota Vikings Brett Favre – slice and dice his old team in a sweet 30-23 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
I don’t think it’s homer hyberbole to say Favre was sensational in this game. He made every throw you’d want a quarterback to make. There was plenty of smoke on the fastball – even the long throws – and he was deadly accurate.
And for the second straight week, Favre answered the question I, and plenty other football fans and writers, had after watching him play prior to last weekend’s 49ers game, namely – could he win a game with his arm anymore? Well, with the Vikings two best offensive weapons of the first three games (Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin) having little success against the Packers, Favre went out and threw for 271 yards, completed 77 per cent of his passes and threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Prior to acquiring Favre, it’s hard to imagine the Vikings winning a game like this with Peterson bottled up as he was. This is what the Vikings have lacked, balance on offence, the threat of moving the ball with the run and the pass. For all my skepticism about this move from the get-go, Favre appears to be giving the Vikings the offensive Holy Grail. Look out NFL if it continues.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t give the Vikings offensive line a lot of credit. The pass protection has been spotty so far this young season, but the Packers pass rushers barely touched Favre in this one. Without that kind of pass protection, it’s doubtful the old man would have been as effective as he was.
On the defensive side of the ball, I imagine some people will focus on the fact Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers threw for 384 yards and the Packers moved the ball quite effectively against the Vikings for much of the game.
That is a concern. But the Vikings defence also sacked Rodgers eight times, recorded a safety, forced two key turnovers deep in Vikings territory and had a huge goal line stand in the third quarter when the Packers were close to cutting into a 28-14 lead. The unit gave up a lot of yards, but it was also as responsible for this win as much as Favre and the Vikings offence was.
So overall, not much to complain about here. However, if you will indulge me for a brief moment, I must say that when you are up by 10 points with just over three minutes left in the game, and your opponent has no timeouts left and you’ve decided to go conservative with basic runs the previous two plays, RUN THE FUCKING BALL ONE MORE TIME AND KILL SOME PRECIOUS TIME OFF THE CLOCK!
Throwing a low percentage deep ball to Bernard Berrian at that point was doing the Packers a huge favor. It almost cost the Vikings a well-earned lead. But I don’t blame Brad Childress or offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell on that play. I think this was a case of Favre doing one of his wacky gunslinger-type moves. As great as he played against Green Bay, it might be time for Chilly to have a short chat with the ole’ country boy about game management again if that was the case.
But I’ll stop it right there with the negativity. The Vikings are 4-0, in first place in the NFC North and it looks like they’ve (finally) got a passing game.
Life is good. Being a Vikings fan right now is good. Drink it in, people. Drink it in.
Monday's football post
Packers – Vikings
So the Vikings are 3-0 and we are loving life. Except for me. I am thankful for the good start and it already sets the Vikings up well to make a second straight playoff appearance. But after three games I’m not finding myself – how can I put this? – pleasantly surprised by the Vikings play.
The defence has been good, but not as stifling as I was expecting. The offence has looked okay at times, but pretty sucktastic at others. The same goes for Brett Favre. And playing the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions to stalemates for a half in the first two games doesn’t do much for ones confidence in their favourite team. Neither does requiring a miracle touchdown throw/catch to beat the Frank Gore-less San Francisco 49ers – although the Niners are looking like a better team than expected.
Maybe most fans feel this way all the time about the teams they cheer for. Or I could be just a whiny, glass-is-three-quarters-empty Vikings fan. We’re so used to being disappointed. So used to the Vikings underachieving (at least in our minds.) So used to lacking confidence in them to win when it really matters, that we have a tendency to downgrade everything they do – even when they start the season 3-0. Perhaps it’s part of our fan DNA. I’m willing to admit my emotions about this team right now juts might be some old fashioned Viking pessimism coming through.
But I really do fear – based on what I’ve seen in the first three games of the season – that the Vikings could be paper tigers and won’t be able to match up with the big boys when the time comes.
What do you think?
A bit about the game.
I won’t write about the Favre-faces-the-Packers angle here. You can get that anywhere. I’m also confident it’s not relevant to what will happen on the field. So let’s stick with what we know (or think we know) about these two teams as Monday night approaches.
– Aaron Rodgers and Packers passing game is pretty good.
– Green Bay’s new 3-4 defence is creating lots of turnovers.
– If Antwan Odom makes the Pro Bowl, he should take the entire Packers offensive line – all expenses paid – to the event with him.
– The Vikings offence is scoring a lot of points – fourth in the league at 29.3 per game – but has looked suspiciously 2006 and 2007-like in all three games.
– Adrian Peterson abuses the Packers.
– Brett Favre is Brett Favre. (Just kidding.)
Now mix all this up and what do you get? I’m not sure.
I’m having trouble selecting a winner in this game because I can’t figure out which team’s strengths and weaknesses tip the scales in favor of either the Vikings or the Packers.
For example, we know the Vikings have a good pass rush and Rodgers has been running for his life behind a bad offensive line. That should make life difficult for Rodgers – advantage Vikings. But who is confident the Vikings often pass protection challenged offensive line will do any better keeping the pocket clean for Favre against Dom Capers' blitz-heavy 3-4 scheme – one that’s sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times (one less than the Vikes defence has registered) AND has created nine turnovers?
For those that worry about Favre’s interception and Peterson’s fumbling tendencies, this game is scary. The best-case scenario for the Vikings is Peterson runs wild and Favre throws 25 times, max. Checkdowns by Favre when he’s passing will be preferable to risky throws – unless the Vikings get behind by a bunch.
I think this is a game where the Vikings need big contributions from Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. At some point the Vikes offence will need to complete a few passes to move the ball and Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice could have trouble getting open while being covered by Green Bay corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Favre will need someone else to throw to besides Chester Taylor.
Defensively, the Packers offence will test the Vikings in ways its previous three opponents couldn’t. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy does a good job mixing up formations and giving opponents different looks. Greg Jennings has emerged into a dangerous deep threat, Donald Driver is still effective and Ryan Grant has played well against the Vikings in the past, giving the Pack a running game. The Packers aren’t one-dimensional. It’s a tough assignment for the Vikings D.
One overlooked area in this game could be the return game. The Vikings lead the NFL in starting field position at the 35.5 yard line, but the Packers are ranked sixth (27.7 yard line.) A large reason for the Vikings vastly improved return game is Percy Harvin, who is leading the NFL in kickoff return average, and Darius Reynaud, who is second overall in punt return average.
The Vikings got nothing from their return men last year. This year they are getting lots. It’s giving their offence a shorter field to work with and requiring they convert fewer first downs to get into scoring position. This helps. Unfortunately, Reynaud probably won’t play. That hurts. And as I mentioned, the Packers return game is good, too. Expect some long returns in this one.
Anyway, my nerves would appreciate it if the Vikings blew out the Packers Monday night. I doubt that happens. This one will be close – they almost always are between these two teams. But my hunch is the Vikings defence will plays its best game so far, forcing a couple of key turnovers while Adrian Peterson and the rest of the offence does enough – to score enough – to win this one.
Vikings 30 Packers 20
Uniforms
Throwback uniforms – Yipeee!
Since the Vikings re-designed their uniforms in 2006 I’ve more tolerated them than liked them. At least they didn’t fuck with the logo on the helmet.
I’d wager if you polled Viking fans, the vast majority would say they want the Vikings to wear the throwbacks all the time. But why do I and other Viking fans like the throwbacks so much? Is it because they are so superior in design and look to the new ones? (As Marv Albert would say, “Yesssssssss!)
Or is it because seeing the Vikings wear them takes us back to a time when the Vikings were a perennial NFL powerhouse: a team to be feared, a team that made regular Super Bowl and NFC Championship game appearances? Does watching the Vikings play in throwbacks stir strong emotions in Viking fans about the good old days – even if we didn’t watch any of it and only read about it?
It’s probably a combination of those two.
Stadium talk
Zygi Wilf better hope the Vikings go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl if he wants to get this done.
So the Vikings are 3-0 and we are loving life. Except for me. I am thankful for the good start and it already sets the Vikings up well to make a second straight playoff appearance. But after three games I’m not finding myself – how can I put this? – pleasantly surprised by the Vikings play.
The defence has been good, but not as stifling as I was expecting. The offence has looked okay at times, but pretty sucktastic at others. The same goes for Brett Favre. And playing the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions to stalemates for a half in the first two games doesn’t do much for ones confidence in their favourite team. Neither does requiring a miracle touchdown throw/catch to beat the Frank Gore-less San Francisco 49ers – although the Niners are looking like a better team than expected.
Maybe most fans feel this way all the time about the teams they cheer for. Or I could be just a whiny, glass-is-three-quarters-empty Vikings fan. We’re so used to being disappointed. So used to the Vikings underachieving (at least in our minds.) So used to lacking confidence in them to win when it really matters, that we have a tendency to downgrade everything they do – even when they start the season 3-0. Perhaps it’s part of our fan DNA. I’m willing to admit my emotions about this team right now juts might be some old fashioned Viking pessimism coming through.
But I really do fear – based on what I’ve seen in the first three games of the season – that the Vikings could be paper tigers and won’t be able to match up with the big boys when the time comes.
What do you think?
A bit about the game.
I won’t write about the Favre-faces-the-Packers angle here. You can get that anywhere. I’m also confident it’s not relevant to what will happen on the field. So let’s stick with what we know (or think we know) about these two teams as Monday night approaches.
– Aaron Rodgers and Packers passing game is pretty good.
– Green Bay’s new 3-4 defence is creating lots of turnovers.
– If Antwan Odom makes the Pro Bowl, he should take the entire Packers offensive line – all expenses paid – to the event with him.
– The Vikings offence is scoring a lot of points – fourth in the league at 29.3 per game – but has looked suspiciously 2006 and 2007-like in all three games.
– Adrian Peterson abuses the Packers.
– Brett Favre is Brett Favre. (Just kidding.)
Now mix all this up and what do you get? I’m not sure.
I’m having trouble selecting a winner in this game because I can’t figure out which team’s strengths and weaknesses tip the scales in favor of either the Vikings or the Packers.
For example, we know the Vikings have a good pass rush and Rodgers has been running for his life behind a bad offensive line. That should make life difficult for Rodgers – advantage Vikings. But who is confident the Vikings often pass protection challenged offensive line will do any better keeping the pocket clean for Favre against Dom Capers' blitz-heavy 3-4 scheme – one that’s sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times (one less than the Vikes defence has registered) AND has created nine turnovers?
For those that worry about Favre’s interception and Peterson’s fumbling tendencies, this game is scary. The best-case scenario for the Vikings is Peterson runs wild and Favre throws 25 times, max. Checkdowns by Favre when he’s passing will be preferable to risky throws – unless the Vikings get behind by a bunch.
I think this is a game where the Vikings need big contributions from Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. At some point the Vikes offence will need to complete a few passes to move the ball and Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice could have trouble getting open while being covered by Green Bay corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Favre will need someone else to throw to besides Chester Taylor.
Defensively, the Packers offence will test the Vikings in ways its previous three opponents couldn’t. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy does a good job mixing up formations and giving opponents different looks. Greg Jennings has emerged into a dangerous deep threat, Donald Driver is still effective and Ryan Grant has played well against the Vikings in the past, giving the Pack a running game. The Packers aren’t one-dimensional. It’s a tough assignment for the Vikings D.
One overlooked area in this game could be the return game. The Vikings lead the NFL in starting field position at the 35.5 yard line, but the Packers are ranked sixth (27.7 yard line.) A large reason for the Vikings vastly improved return game is Percy Harvin, who is leading the NFL in kickoff return average, and Darius Reynaud, who is second overall in punt return average.
The Vikings got nothing from their return men last year. This year they are getting lots. It’s giving their offence a shorter field to work with and requiring they convert fewer first downs to get into scoring position. This helps. Unfortunately, Reynaud probably won’t play. That hurts. And as I mentioned, the Packers return game is good, too. Expect some long returns in this one.
Anyway, my nerves would appreciate it if the Vikings blew out the Packers Monday night. I doubt that happens. This one will be close – they almost always are between these two teams. But my hunch is the Vikings defence will plays its best game so far, forcing a couple of key turnovers while Adrian Peterson and the rest of the offence does enough – to score enough – to win this one.
Vikings 30 Packers 20
Uniforms
Throwback uniforms – Yipeee!
Since the Vikings re-designed their uniforms in 2006 I’ve more tolerated them than liked them. At least they didn’t fuck with the logo on the helmet.
I’d wager if you polled Viking fans, the vast majority would say they want the Vikings to wear the throwbacks all the time. But why do I and other Viking fans like the throwbacks so much? Is it because they are so superior in design and look to the new ones? (As Marv Albert would say, “Yesssssssss!)
Or is it because seeing the Vikings wear them takes us back to a time when the Vikings were a perennial NFL powerhouse: a team to be feared, a team that made regular Super Bowl and NFC Championship game appearances? Does watching the Vikings play in throwbacks stir strong emotions in Viking fans about the good old days – even if we didn’t watch any of it and only read about it?
It’s probably a combination of those two.
Stadium talk
Zygi Wilf better hope the Vikings go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl if he wants to get this done.
Friday, October 02, 2009
Don't panic
I apologize for the lack of activity on the site this week leading up to the most anticipated game in recent Vikings history.
My real life is crowding my blogging time. Work's been killing me this week, the wife and I are finalizing the sale of our old house and the purchase of a new one and I'm also busy getting ready to compete in this, which is going to affect the content on this site for a couple of weeks starting next Wednesday (more on that later.)
But I am going to post a fairly long Vikings-Packers preview at some point today. So please check back here later this evening or over the weekend as you wait for Monday Night to arrive.
My real life is crowding my blogging time. Work's been killing me this week, the wife and I are finalizing the sale of our old house and the purchase of a new one and I'm also busy getting ready to compete in this, which is going to affect the content on this site for a couple of weeks starting next Wednesday (more on that later.)
But I am going to post a fairly long Vikings-Packers preview at some point today. So please check back here later this evening or over the weekend as you wait for Monday Night to arrive.
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