The New Year's Day football post

Vikings-Giants
I suspect not a lot of people are going to be reading blogs on New Year’s Day, so I’ll keep this preview relatively brief.

It has not mattered where the 8-7 New York Giants have played this season. At home or on the road, they’ve played both spectacularly and craptacularly. They are 4-4 at home and 4-3 on the road.

However, it does matter where the Vikings play. They are 7-0 this season at the Metrodome and the fewest points the team has scored at home is 27. On the road, they’ve been held to 17 points twice and seven points once. And they went scoreless last Monday night at Soldier Field for a half against an average Bears defence.

So in this critical game for the Vikings, with a number two playoff seed still a possibility, it’s good news the team is playing in a place where they walk taller and play better.

That doesn’t mean the Vikings will win this game easily though. The Giants might not be a good team, but they are a dangerous team, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

Eli Manning has had his usual two bad games this season, yet statistically he’s having an excellent year. Steve Smith is the kind of receiver who could eat up the Vikings defence – an excellent route runner adept at finding holes in zone coverages. And Manning has plenty of other receiving options in Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Boss to throw to when Smith isn’t open.

With the Vikings really struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks and cover opposing receivers, Manning could have a big day passing the ball and the Giants could score a lot of points. Also, don’t get too excited that Giants starting running back Brandon Jacobs won’t be playing. His running mate Ahmad Bradshaw is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has more rushing touchdowns (seven) than Jacobs (five) and he’s done all this with just 156 carries.

If there is one thing that does make me think Manning and the Giants won’t light up the Vikings defence, it’s this – Manning’s been sacked 21 times in the past eight games. That’s only an average of three sacks per game, but it does indicates some pass protection problems along the Giants offensive line that the Vikings defensive line could exploit at home with a noisy crowd backing them up.

Even if the Vikings don’t sack Manning a bunch, if they can get him moving and jumpy in the pass pocket, that could result in several missed passes and even an interception or two, ruining enough Giants drives to allow the Vikings to win this one.

That’s assuming the Vikings continue to be the offensive machine they have been all season at home – no sure thing considering the offensive line’s continuing struggles.

However, I’m expecting the Vikings to win a shootout Sunday and go 12-4. After that, they’ll need some help from Dallas against the Eagles to secure the number two playoff seed and a week off.

Vikings 34 Giants 30

Other things
ESPN's Kevin Seifert examines the importance of having momemtum on a team's side heading into the playoffs.