Thursday, September 16, 2010

At long last - week #2

Dolphins - Vikings
One of the pitfalls of analyzing games so early in the season is that I’m forced to base my analysis on what happened in the previous season as opposed to what’s happened this season.

I mean, I know what kind of team the Vikings were in 2009. But what kind of team are the Vikings in 2010? They’ve only played one game. It’s hard to tell.

I do know if this were last year, I’d be extremely confident in a 14 to 17 point victory for the Vikes.

The Vikings defence would negate the Wildcat. The defensive line would pressure the hell out of Chad Henne when he did throw and Miami would have trouble moving the ball consistently and scoring touchdowns. And that certainly wouldn’t be good enough to keep up with the Vikings offensive prowess.

This year, I don’t know. A frothy, noisy Metrodome crowd helps. I still don’t think the Wildcat will have great success against the Vikings D. I also don’t think Chad Henne will have much success throwing the ball. The Vikings will also be wearing their throwback jerseys, which I love.

But, geez, that Vikings offence. It didn’t look very good against the Saints. Can we expect them to be much better against the Dolphins? We can, but it’s not a given.

Brett Favre might still be rusty. Bernard Berrian very likely will be a non-factor again (he and Favre do not seem to click). And it’s obvious Favre and the Vikings really miss Sidney Rice.

If the Vikings struggle to move the ball, it’s pretty easy to envision this game being a close, tense, frustrating affair, with the Dolphins chewing up large chunks of the game clock with their Wildcat and 3.5 yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offensive philosophy. Then Favre starts pressing to make something happen, forces the ball, gets picked off a couple of times, and voila, the Vikes are 0-2.

Somehow, I can’t bring myself to predicting that will happen though. I believe in the power of the Metrodome. The Vikings play a foot taller there. So they’ll win this one. I just don’t think it will be easy.

Vikings 21 Dolphins 13

Adrian Peterson
Vikes Geek takes aim at Adrian Peterson this week, suggesting AP has become an Ordinary Joe the past 12 months – with his yards per carry average and spectacular runs declining at the rate of a mere mortal – and he needs to snap out of it.

I blame the Vikings offensive line way more than Peterson for what has seemed like too many ho-hum games of late. But no matter who is to blame, the Dolphins game is one where the Vikings really, really need Adrian Peterson to play like Adrian Peterson.

Darius Reynaud
Last Sunday I watched a bit of the Giants-Panthers game. In the first quarter, the Panthers punted the ball after a failed first drive. The Carolina coverage was very good, and they had at least four players near the ball, when the Giants punt returner, Reynaud, fearlessly fielded the punt on the run, in heavy traffic. He gained four yards.

Why am I mentioning a four-yard punt return? Because Reynaud saved his new team valuable yards on that punt return and he will continue to do so the rest of the season.

Most guys would have let that punt hit the ground and roll for about 20 yards. Or they would have called for a fair catch and gained nothing. Not Reynaud. He turned nothing into something.

Meanwhile, Bernard Berrian fielded two punts in the Vikings season opener, fumbled one of them and returned the other for two yards.

Maybe I’m making too much out of the loss of a player whose only value was returning punts. But the Vikings did not make themselves a better team by trading Reynaud. I still don’t understand it.

Bryant McKinnie
I read on Access Vikings last week that during the Saints contest, after he left the game with a dislocated finger, McKinnie “tweeted” that he would be coming back in the game, but the Vikings never got the ball back.

Now just what was McKinnie doing on his Twitter account during the late stages of a close game during the Vikings season opener?

I find this interesting.

Vincent Jackson – future Viking?
I’m excited by this rumour, and would be all for acquiring Jackson, provided the compensation was reasonable.

Football Outsiders had Jackson ranked as the #2 receiver in the league last year (Sidney Rice was ranked #1). There’s been some speculation that the Vikings had a one-year, $7-million deal worked out with Jackson, which has many wondering why the Vikings would trade for a guy they’ll only have locked up for one year.

Well, apparently there’s going to be a lockout next year, and the Vikings don’t seem to be keen on signing anyone to extensions right now – not Chad Greenway, not Ray Edwards, not Sidney Rice, and probably not Vincent Jackson.

But if the Vikings are going "all-in" this year to win a Super Bowl, trading Jackson to rent him for potentially one year is an okay gamble to me.

It’s clear already the Vikings need a big wide receiver that can get downfield and make plays. Rice was that guy last year, but he’s not playing right now, and will he be ready to play after week eight of the season? And even if he is, will it already be too late for the Vikings for it to matter?

Jackson can come back after four games. If we can get him, let’s get him.

3 comments:

Peter said...

If the Chargers will take Berrian and a 2011 3rd rounder, that's cool. Otherwise, meh.

I think Minnesota's offense will look better this week. They can't not get Harvin and Camarillo more targets AND not get Peterson more touches, right?

Miami is a lot better than they were a few years ago, but they prey on teams with questionable run defense using Brown and Williams. Those dudes are old or oft-injured, and Minnesota's run D is not susceptible until late in a game where the opposition controlled the clock. If things are close toward the end of the 3rd quarter, I will be very nervous.

Miami doesn't have interior o-lineman like the Saints do. Barring turnovers and special teams disasters, the Vikes should win this game 7 or 8 times out of 10.

Mike Schmidt said...

Peter:

If this was 2009, I'd say the Vikings win this one 10 out of 10 times.

Peter said...

I don't disagree. But The Dolphins might be getting better. They've got two 2nd year guys in their secondary (should be better than last year, right?) and Henne's got that much more experience. Ricky's a year older, though, which isn't good. I'm just not sure about their team, but I do know that Minnesota doesn't look like the 10-1 team they started out as last year.

I'm trying not to be too nervous.