Sunday, February 28, 2010

Take your pick

It was apparent after Adrian Peterson’s first few carries during the preseason of his rookie year that the Vikings had something special.

As for the guy the Vikings picked in the second round 37 spots after Peterson – wide receiver Sidney Rice – there were occasional glimpses that he might be good. But few were thinking Rice could be the kind of impact player Peterson has been.

But in 2009 Rice indeed made an impact.

After Brett Favre, Rice was probably Minnesota’s second-best offensive player. And while it’s just one great season compared to Peterson’s two great (‘07 and ‘08) years and one pretty good year (‘09), it’s enough to make me wonder if Rice might eventually end up being the Vikings best draftee from 2007 – not A.P.

Now plenty of football fans might think I’m a bit loopy for suggesting that could happen. I mean, many experts have considered Peterson the NFL’s best running back since early in his rookie season. He’s been very productive no matter how bad the blocking has been and how bad the Vikings quarterbacks and receivers have been.

As for Rice, as well as he played in 2009, it was only one season – with Brett Favre throwing to him – and he has to prove he isn’t a one-year wonder. So how could I even think Rice might end up being the better draft pick?

Well, let me explain (although I think you know where I’m going with this).

NFL running backs do not have a long shelf life. Even the skills of the great ones fade by the time they are 29 or 30. And if you get eight or nine seasons out of them, you’ve done well.

Take LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook – two of the best running backs of the past decade – for example. This winter both of them were released by the San Diego Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles, respectively.

Tomlinson is 30. Westbrook is 30. Tomlinson has played nine NFL seasons. Westbrook has played eight NFL seasons. And now both are considered done as effective every-down backs. In fact, there’s no guarantee either guy will find an NFL team willing to employ them in 2010.

As for wide receivers, there is plenty of evidence that they can be productive every-down players beyond the age of 30. Randy Moss (32 years of age), Terrell Owens (34), Marvin Harrison (34), Rod Smith (35) and Jimmy Smith (36), Cris Carter (35), Tim Brown (36) and Jerry Rice (40!) all had outstanding years despite their advanced ages.

Which brings us back to Peterson and Rice.

Peterson will turn 25 on March 21, and unless he’s the exception, we can expect him to play five or six more seasons. And that’s assuming he can stay healthy and avoid the serious injuries that are often the byproduct of playing a position where you touch the ball (and get hit) 25 times per game.

As for Rice, he is more than a year younger than Peterson and he plays a less physically punishing position. It’s quite possible he could be a very good player until he’s 34, 35 or even older.

And if he consistently produces the kind of results he did in 2009 and plays four or five more seasons than Peterson, it’s quite possible that as great as Adrian Peterson has been his first three seasons, Sidney Rice may actually turn out to have been the more valuable player for the Vikings over the long haul.

Stop the presses
The Vikings have re-signed wide receiver Greg Lewis.

This is no biggie, but it means Lewis could be taking up a game-day roster sport that could have gone to Jaymar Johnson or someone else better than Lewis.

I kind of thought the Vikings might want to see if either Johnson or Darius Reynaud might be able to contribute a bit more as a fourth receiver in 2010 than Lewis.

Of course, if both those players have a great training camp and preseason catching the ball, the Vikings can easily release Lewis and no harm is done.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

What Andy Benoit's commentary reveals

I've been digging the New York Times' Fifth Down blogger Andy Benoit's posts on various NFL franchises.

So for your reading pleasure, here is his quick take on the 2009 Minnesota Vikings.

And if you're interested in his concise, entertaining columns on the Vikings NFC North rivals – and you should be – here are his posts on the Green Bay Packers, the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions.

When a mock draft goes awry
I like the National Football Post's college blogger Wes Bunting. I mostly like him because he agreed (twice) to be interviewed by me for posts that I ran on my lowly website about the Vikings 2009 draft picks and rookie free agents.

But I also like him because I find his posts detailed and informative. They shed some much needed light on a bunch of college players I know nothing about – a few of whom will be Vikings in two short months.

However, in his latest mock draft, I think he's a bit off predicting the Vikings will take Florida quarterback Tim Tebow with the 30th pick.

Yes, the Vikings need a quarterback of the future, but I've yet to read or listen to a single person besides Bunting that thinks Tebow will go in the first round.

And with all the questions surrounding Tebow's abilities (his throwing motion, his ability to operate without exclusively being in the shotgun, his accuracy and on and on it goes), I certainly don't trust Brad Childress as being the guy to turn the supposedly flawed Tebow into an All-Pro.

Vernon Davis – you're alright in my book
It's not often I flaunt my Canadianness in this blog (except when I spell "offence" and "defence" to confuse the hell out of my American readers), but I was highly amused to learn that Vernon Davis has caught the curling bug. Curling, for reasons I've never fully understood, is a very popular sport in my country.

Anyway, check out the videos in the link. Good times all around.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Viking needs

I don’t know how to begin this post other than to write that this has already been a long offseason.

I feel like the Vikings haven’t played in a decade. Yet it’s only the end of February, which, as you know, is a long ways away from September.

So I’m itching for the Vikings to redeem themselves, although I know there’s a good chance they won’t and next year will be a disappointment. I’ve got a 1999 feeling about the upcoming 2010 season.

But regardless of how 2010 turns out, now is the time to think about what the Vikings must do to improve themselves and what positions on the team are most in need of improving.

With that in mind, here is a quick look at what I think are the team’s biggest needs as free agency and draft chatter gets louder and louder.

Quarterback: Whether Brett Favre returns or not, the Vikings still have no long-term solution here. Tarvaris Jackson isn’t it. Apparently Sage Rosenfels isn’t it. And this year’s college quarterback class is said to be weak. Is it time for the Vikings to get creative to address a pressing need just like they did in 2008 when they traded for Jared Allen?

Cornerback: I would have ranked this position a notch lower had Cedric Griffin not suffered a serious knee injury in the NFC Championship game. But he did suffer it. So the Vikes are faced going into 2010 without Griffin and with Antoine Winfield – who turns 33 in June. And the guys behind them are Benny Sapp, Asher Allen and Karl Paymah – although Sapp and Paymah are free agents and both may not return. In Paymah’s case, I hope he doesn’t, as I’m sure Ralph Brown or Kenny Wright are available.

Linebacker: The Vikings linebacking corps looks fine, especially if E.J. Henderson makes it back from a horrendous broken leg and plays at a high level in 2010. But that’s no sure thing. In other news, Ben Leber is a free agent after next season. And while Chad Greenway is a very good player, the rest of the guys currently on the depth chart are special team players first, linebackers second – unless you count Jasper Brinkley as a viable starting NFL linebacker. The jury is still out on that one.

Late addition
Upon further reflection, the offensive line is a need area that ranks right up there with the cornerback and linebacker positions. The line consistently gives up a lot of sacks and it struggles to open up holes for Adrian Peterson. Something is wrong here. I would not be disappointed to see the team address the left tackle, right guard or center positions.

Meanwhile ....

Football Outsiders deals with NFC North in this Four Downs feature.

Author Ned Macey mentions the Vikings need to think (soon) about not only how they are going to replace Favre, but how they are going to replace Pat Williams – as the 2010 season will likely be his last.

Macey also picks on right guard Anthony Herrera.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

The curious case of Bernard Berrian

2009 was not a good year for Bernard Berrian – except when he looked at his bank account.

In his sixth NFL season, the Vikings wide receiver posted his lowest receiving yardage total (618) since his second season in 2005 – a year when he started just two games. He also posted his lowest yards-per-catch average (11.2) of his career, and his lowest touchdown total (two), his lowest number of catches of 20 yards or more (five) and 40 yards or more (one) since 2005.

This was quite a contrast from his 2008 debut with the Vikings. While Berrian didn’t catch a lot of passes (48) in 2008, he was extremely productive when he did, as evidenced by his stats of 964 yards, seven touchdowns and a fantastic 20.1 yards-per-catch average.

So what happened to Berrian in 2009? And why did he turn into Bobby Wade?

Based on what I read all season, there were basically three theories given to explain what happened.

1. Hamstring injuries robbed him of his speed and his effectiveness much of the season.

2. Because his first hamstring injury kept him out of the final three preseason games, he missed out on valuable bonding time with Brett Favre and so he and #4 never developed the kind of chemistry Favre enjoyed with Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin.

3. Berrian sucks.

I don’t buy reason #2 and I certainly don’t think Berrian sucks. To my untrained fan eyes, the difference in Berrian from 2009 compared to 2008 were the hamstring woes. For any player whose main asset is supposed to be his speed, lingering hamstring issues have to be a killer. And it sure seemed that way for Berrian, who often had trouble getting separation from opposing defensive backs.

That Berrian wasn’t quite right was also apparent in the way the Vikings used him most of the season. Rice became the Vikings deep ball threat. And when the Vikings threw the ball to Berrian, it was usually on short slants and screens, which seemed odd because this is hardly Berrian’s forte. He isn’t a physical guy and he doesn’t get a lot of yards after the catch. It was almost like they were throwing him the ball out of pity and to keep him in the game.

As it turned out, Berrian’s ineffectiveness didn’t hurt the Vikings offence much. However, that doesn’t mean a return to the 2008 Bernard Berrian (or the 2007 Berrian) wouldn’t be a plus for the Vikings.

For one, if Rice, Harvin or Visanthe Shiancoe are lost for any significant time because of injury in 2010, an effective Berrian could pick up the slack and ensure the Vikings offence doesn’t miss a beat.

Secondly, with Chester Taylor possibly on the way out, the Vikings will have to replace his 40-plus catches and his presence as a dangerous receiving threat on third downs that opposing defences must account for. Again, an effective Berrian could be that guy and soften the blow of losing Taylor.

Finally, if an opponent decides to focus their coverage on someone like Rice or Harvin and shuts them down on a particular day, Berrian can be a go-to-guy (see the NFC Championship game) in the passing game that makes opponents pay for using that strategy.

Just imagine what the Vikings passing attack will look like in 2010 with an improving Adrian Peterson, Rice, Shiancoe and Harvin simply maintaining their levels of production from 2008, plus the 2007-2008 version of Bernard Berrian?

This isn’t the most pressing issue facing the Vikings in 2010. But it is an issue and if Berrian can return to his 2007-2008 form (or even eclipse it), it could help offset some of the team’s other shortcomings.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Speculation season

Once the Super Bowl ends, speculation season begins in the NFL. Who will stay? Who will go? Who will your team draft?

You'll be reading a bunch about all of this over the next three months.

With that in mind, here is the first round of offseason speculation regarding the Vikings.

Brett Favre
Expect this to be a hot topic for, oh, the next seven months or so.

Judd Zulgad writes about Brett Favre coming back for a second season.

What caught my eye was this line by Zulgad in the post:

"Although Favre indicated to some after the Vikings loss to the Saints in the NFC title game that he might be done, the general belief is that he will return next season."

But is that the general belief or the general hope?

I don't think Favre will be back. If his reason for returning last season was to prove to the Packers and his doubters that he could still play (and I think it was), he did that in 2009.

The only way to go for Favre in 2010 is down, especially with the schedule looking very tough for the team next year.

The Vikings better start making serious inquiries into Donovan McNabb's availability.

Chester Taylor
Zulgad also posts about Chester Taylor's future with the Vikings.

I'm a Taylor fan. Love his attitude. Love his ability. Love the way he plays.

But Taylor averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in 2009, his worst total since his rookie year, and he had just one run that went for 20 yards or longer.

Did I mention he'll be 31 by the time your 2010 calendar hits October, an age where most NFL running backs have outlived their usefulness?

Unless he's willing to resign on the cheap, Taylor won't be back in 2010. I'm okay with that.

There appears to be no obvious successor to Taylor on the Vikings roster right now. But I think second year player Albert Young could provide just as much bang for less bucks than Taylor.

I only watched Young perform in preseason and garbage time against the Giants this year. However, I was favorably impressed with Young's improvement compared to his rookie year when he was practice squad fodder. He runs hard. He seems to pass block okay. And he catches the ball well out of the backfield.

Of course, you're kind of screwed if Adrian Peterson has a serious injury and is lost for a significant part of the season. But I don't think that is a reason to pay big bucks for a player with (perhaps) fading skills.

Antonio Pierce
E.J. Henderson's return in 2010 is a big question mark for the Vikings.

Jasper Brinkley's ability to ably fill in for Henderson if #56 can't go in 2010 is an even bigger question mark.

So would signing a well-known veteran like Antonio Pierce be a good insurance policy?

If you think it might be, just read a few of the posted remarks on this in the Football Outsiders comments section on Pierce getting cut.

Back when Mike Tice was still coaching the team, the Vikings made a strong push to sign Pierce, but lost out to the Giants. This eventually cleared the way for Henderson to take over and develop into a very good middle linebacker.

There's no indication right now that the Vikings are interested in Pierce. But if they are, they might be wise to remember the history behind Henderson's development and that it could happen again with Brinkley.

The draft
There's going to be a gazillion of these mock drafts over the next couple of months, but for what it is worth, here is one that predicts the Vikings will select Florida State cornerback Patrick Robinson.

Sunday, February 07, 2010

We're #2.(b)!

Coulda. Woulda. Shoulda.

Congratulations New Orleans Saints.

And yet another NFL team gets eliminated from the discussion as the most tortured franchise in pro football.

Who is next to leapfrog the Minnesota Vikings? The Detroit Lions?

John Randle – Hall of Famer

John Randle makes it into the Hall of Fame. Cris Carter does not.

I won't get into the debate on why Carter didn't make it in for the second straight year. But there seems to be a fair bit of debate about the merits of Randle getting in. And the debate seems to center around Randle's ability (or rather, lack of ability) in defending the run.

However, my simplistic view of this is if a player was that good at doing something as important as rushing the passer, then he deserves to be enshrined in Canton.

In other Viking news, here is an interesting column by Dan Le Batard about Bryant McKinnie that I got from the Access Vikings site.

Le Batard actually seems pretty sympathetic to McKinnie's situation in this piece. But he may have written it that way because he's scared McKinnie will hit him on the head with a metal pole.

On the other hand, I find myself sort of liking McKinnie after reading this. He's not unlike a lot of other people I've known who like to party, sometimes get into dust ups under the influence, but aren't necessarily evil people.

I also kind of like the fact McKinnie isn't hiding behind some publicist or PR firm, issuing silly statements expressing his deep regret about embarrassing the Vikings, Vikings fans and the universe, when he obviously doesn't feel that way at all.

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Giving lazy people everywhere a bad name

An interesting post from ESPN's Kevin Seifert on Thursday, as he interviewed Bryant McKinnie about the Pro Bowl thing.

I haven't been surprised by the disgust Vikings fans have expressed over McKinnie's dismissal from the Pro Bowl for going AWOL. However, I do think that disgust is misguided.

Certainly McKinnie's behavior was unprofessional. But I wasn't disgusted or embarrassed by it. I mean, I don't really care what McKinnie does at 3 a.m. in the morning or what strip club he Tweets from.

What I do care about, however, is how McKinnie performs on the field every Sunday. And that's what makes his handling of this Pro Bowl business a bit disturbing.

If McKinnie will blow off the Pro Bowl and think nothing of it, how hard is he working at his craft during the offseason and the regular season to be the best left tackle he can be?

McKinnie's been a Viking since 2002. During his tenure in Minnesota, he's frequently been okay, occasionally been good, but rarely – if ever – been great. It's not exactly the kind of career you'd expect from a top 10 draft pick.

I can't help but think that the Pro Bowl incident provided us with some valuable insight into why that's been the case.

Maybe Bryant McKinnie just doesn't work very hard.

Rookie of the Year
Thankfully, effort doesn't seem to be a problem for Percy Harvin, who was chosen as the Pepsi Rookie of the Year on Thursday.

I don't know what Harvin will do to top his rookie season, but one thing I hope the Vikings do try is give Harvin the ball a bit more regularly in running situations. And I don't mean on reverses or end-arounds, either. I mean lining up Harvin in the backfield as a running back and handing him the ball.

This is something the Vikings finally did in the playoffs and it was very effective. If Chester Taylor signs elsewhere (and I think he will), there will be some carries up for grabs. I hope they don't all go to Albert Young.

Posnanski on Favre
This column is almost two months old, but it is so good I had to link to it.

If you've always wondered about Brett Favre's appeal, I think Joe Posnanski pretty much nails it in that piece.

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Happy February

I apologize for the lack of activity on the blog this week. I'm not pulling a Pacifist Viking, I've just been busy at work again.

Anyway, I'll keep this one short.

Vikings fans have heard all year how dominant our defensive line is. The Fox Network even had a nickname contest for the unit going on during one Vikings game (I think it was against Detroit). The Vikings also led the league in sacks.

But sacks don't tell the whole story when it comes to a defensive line's effectiveness. However, Football Outsiders published it's quarterback hurries stats this week and they add more credence to the belief out there that the Vikings defensive line is, you know, kinda pretty good.

One other thing. Based on these stats and what I saw all year, the Vikings should think about signing Ray Edwards to a lengthy extension. Now.