Monday, December 26, 2011

On Boxing Day, have the Vikings resolved their stadium issues?

While the Vikings beat reporters were napping after eating their turkey feasts on Christmas Day, NBC and Sports Illustrated's Peter King scooped them on the biggest story of the year for the franchise – revealing the Vikings might be close to a deal that will bag them a new stadium.

King's pretty well connected, so chances are good there is something to this story. And if this turns out to be true, it's obviously great news for all Vikings fans. It would also be great news for owner Zygi Wilf. Instead of having to focus on where the team will be playing beyond 2011, he can rest easier and turn his attention to on-field matters, of which the Vikings have several pressing matters.

Does Adrian Peterson's injury change the Vikings draft plans?

ESPN's NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert was quick to weigh in on the impact of Adrian Peterson's season (possibly career?) ending knee injury.

In the post, Seifert writes that "of all the issues the Vikings had on their plate this offseason, the running back position wasn't one of them. Now it might be their most pressing."

I'm a big fan of Seifert. But is running back now the Vikings most pressing need? Let's look at this issue with a clear head.

* First, let's consider the Vikings offensive performance in the five games that Peterson was basically out of the lineup for the entire game or large portions of the game. The Vikes scored 21 points against Oakland, 32 points against Denver, 28 against Detroit and 33 against Washington, plus a measly 14 against Atlanta. That's average of 25.6 points per game. In the 10 games that Peterson was healthy and playing, the Vikings averaged 19.9 points per game. It's a small sample size, but it doesn't seem like the Vikings offence suffered when it lost its best running back.

* Let's also consider that a team's running attack is often a function of how effective its offensive line is. If that unit is opening up running lanes, a running back is going to be effective. And it doesn't hurt if the team's quarterback can stay upright and complete a forward pass or two each game. But you need a strong offensive line to accomplish those things and the Vikings currently don't have that. Which is why drafting a franchise left tackle like USC's Matt Kalil early is more pressing than drafting a running back.

* Speaking of the Vikings offensive performance, the unit has been hamstrung for two seasons now because it doesn't have a viable passing attack that can take advantage of team's that crowd the line of scrimmage to stop Peterson. Opposing defences can do this because outside of Percy Harvin, the Vikes haven't had a single wideout who can beat the coverage of quality NFL cornerbacks consistently. The NFL is now a passing league. That makes finding someone to help Harvin, and quarterback Christian Ponder, more pressing than finding a replacement for Peterson.

* Another obvious problem the Vikings have had this season is that the squad's defence has immense trouble stopping teams who can throw the ball. That's had an impact on the squad's running game because it has limited the amount of touches Peterson has been able to get. When the other team is marching the ball up and down the field, your own offence doesn't have the ball and you can't hand the ball off to your superstar running back. Even with the loss of Peterson, the Vikings secondary is in worse shape than its running back situation. They have to fix that when they play in a division where Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler are starting QBs. That also makes drafting a cornerback early much more pressing than drafting a running back.

* Finally, we have to at least acknowledge that the Vikes have a capable replacement already on the roster – Toby Gerhart. No, he's not as explosive or anywhere near the gamebreaker that Peterson is. But despite playing with a weak offensive line, an even weaker group of wide receivers and a mistake-prone rookie QB, Gerhart averaged 83.5 yards on 17 carries a game during the five games Peterson missed significant playing time. That's an average of 4.9 yards per carry. I'd say that is pretty solid production from Gerhart, who has shown he is a capable pass catcher as well. Gerhart also looks like he's added about 15 to 20 pounds of muscle mass since his rookie season. He's a horse who can handle 25 carries per game. If he stays healthy, the Vikings are okay, perhaps even better than okay, here.

Couple all these factors with the fact that teams often find productive running backs in the latter rounds of the draft or as undrafted free agents – like Chicago's Kahlil Bell (Minnesota cut this guy in 2009), who ran with authority and vision against Green Bay Sunday night on his way to rushing for 121 yards – and drafting a running back early next April should not be front-of-mind for Vikings draft gurus Scott Studwell and Rick Spielman.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do the Vikings still have Caleb King on the practice squad? Any chance he gets brought up? The Vikings also have Lorenzo Booker. I agree that running back is still a low priority. First round left tackle. Second round cornerback. The rest of the draft, best available player with respect to the Vikings many needs.

DC said...

Anon:

King was indeed on the Vikings practice squad and I read this morning he will be brought up to the active roster for Sunday's game. He seemed to play well in the preseason, so maybe the Vikes have something there.

As for Booker, he played well last season but seems to have caught fumblitis this year. I'm not sure he should be in the Vikings plans in 2012.