ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero noted a changing tenor this week at Winter Park as the Minnesota Vikings head into 2012 offseason in earnest.
Gone is the talk fans heard during the offseason of 2011 where Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier espoused a belief that the Vikings could compete for a division title or a wildcard playoff spot. Instead, it's been replaced by the acknowledgement that a rebuilding effort is underway – and in Pelissero's mind – it could take a while.
It certainly could. The Vikings have many holes. But out of the four major professional sports in North America – football, basketball, baseball and hockey – a turnaround can happen the fastest in the NFL.
So while the Vikings are a 3-13 team with a number of leaks to plug, it can't be underestimated how acquiring one or two impact players could quickly change the fortunes of this NFL franchise. And to illustrate that, fans need only look at two Viking teams from the recent past – the 1998 and 2007 squads.
For the 1998 team, drafting Randy Moss turned a 9-7 team into a 15-1 juggernaut. They were a decent team without Moss the year before. But when ole' 84 showed up, the Vikes win total spiked upwards by five. There were other factors that led to that improvement, of course, but Moss certainly had a lot to do with it.
As for the 2007 Vikings team, the year before they were an offensively inept 6-10 team. Then they drafted Adrian Peterson. The squad was still offensively inept at times in 2007 – thanks to Tarvaris Jackson and the worst collection of wideouts in NFL history – but the unit had its big games as well, thanks almost exclusively to the play and presence of Peterson. The Vikings even challenged for a playoff spot that year and finished 8-8.
I do not expect the Vikings to go 15-1 or 8-8 next year. But vast improvement is possible in 12 months and it can come even if the Vikings don't hit homeruns on all of their free agent signings and draft picks over the next three months.
The Vikings can even have some very weak positions (they certainly will have some) and still win more football games in 2012 if they can grab an impact player.
Wide receiver is a great example. Say the Vikings sign a guy like Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson. Those two guys must be accounted for as receiving threats, particularly on deep routes. That kind of player will allow Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph and Michael Jenkins more opportunities to beat one-on-one coverage and make plays. That will force teams to blitz Christian Ponder less. It will mean the offensive line won't have to hold their blocks as long. It means teams won't be able to play eight defenders near the line as much. And all of these factors will make the Vikings offence more difficult to defend and more explosive. That will allow the unit to have more explosive plays more often. It will allow them to sustain drives and score more points, which also means the defence will be on the field a bit less and will be playing with the lead more. A better offence will mask some of the Vikings deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball.
So adding one impact player can have a domino effect for the Vikings, vastly improving the team and hastening the rebuilding effort. But first the Vikings have to accomplish the first part – acquire that impact player.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Vikings fans endure one more turn on the stadium merry-go-round
It's a huge issue for Vikings fans, this stadium thing. But I hate writing about it. So here are a few links of stories on today's stadium news, where Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton basically dropped a big "fuck you" on Zygi and Mark Wilf as he quashed their hopes of building a stadium anywhere but on the Metrodome site.
* From the Star-Tribune, there's this story.
* The Pioneer Press' version of today's events can be read here.
* And ESPN's Kevin Seifert has his analysis here.
It really stinks to have to read about this every few days.
Draft due dilgence
ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero had a lengthy Q & A with Vikings general manager Rick Spielman today where he talked about the interview process with draft-eligible college players.
Spielman's draft record has been mixed at best thus far with the Vikings. But if his selections don't pan out this year, at least we know it's from a lack of effort.
* From the Star-Tribune, there's this story.
* The Pioneer Press' version of today's events can be read here.
* And ESPN's Kevin Seifert has his analysis here.
It really stinks to have to read about this every few days.
Draft due dilgence
ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero had a lengthy Q & A with Vikings general manager Rick Spielman today where he talked about the interview process with draft-eligible college players.
Spielman's draft record has been mixed at best thus far with the Vikings. But if his selections don't pan out this year, at least we know it's from a lack of effort.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Good news for the Vikings? Husain Abdullah's concussion issues won't force him to retire
The Minnesota Vikings need to improve their secondary in a big way this offseason if they hope to climb back to relevance in the not-too-distant future. That will likely require some major personnel changes on the back end. Several players who made up this sorry unit in 2011 could (make that "should") be released or allowed to resign elsewhere – if anyone else will have them.
But Husian Abdullah is probably not one of those guys, and Viking Update's John Holler reported on Sunday that Abdullah has been told by concussion specialists in Pittsburgh that he can play football again.
Abdullah had been seriously contemplating retirement after suffering his fourth concussion in two seasons last fall. The fourth concussion landed him on the injured reserve after the Vikings ninth game and ended this season.
And although watching San Francisco 49ers free safety Dashon Goldson the past two weeks smash opposing receivers, deftly jump routes and make several plays on the ball illustrates the gap that lies between good safety play and what the Vikings have been doing for several seasons, I still consider the news on Abdullah a positive development.
Abdullah is no Pro Bowler – at least he hasn't shown that ability yet – but he's a decent enough player that the Vikings can feel pretty good about putting him out there at free safety next season. That allows them to concentrate on other pressing matters such as making upgrades at cornerback, strong safety and even linebacker to improve the pass defence.
If the Washington State alum had been told his career was over because of concussions, it would have added to an already long list of positions the Vikings management must find replacements for. But as long as Abdullah can stay clear of concussions next season, the Vikes should be okay at free safety. In Vikings country these days, we call that progress.
Some (very) brief Super Bowl thoughts
So it's the New York Giants against the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl again.
I did not watch the Pats-Ravens game Sunday, but I did get a chance to watch the entire Giants-49ers game. What a grinder of a contest that was. It may have been a thrilling game, but I don't think it was a great game. The offences were too bad in the second half for me to rank it as a great game (both defensive units had something to do with that, however). But the Giants win does set up the best possible Super Bowl matchup. Consider the alternatives:
* Ravens-49ers. Uggh. I would have envisioned a 5-3 score, with Baltimore winning by a safety.
* Pats-49ers – I think Bill Belichick would have had some fun gameplanning for Alex Smith.
* Ravens-Giants. Meh.
And maybe this is just me, but I find it odd how Fox color commentator Troy Aikman always refers to New York quarterback Eli Manning as "Eli", like he's his son or something. That is an odd habit for an announcer to have. I don't hear Aikman calling other quarterbacks by their first name for an entire game. Somebody should have a word with him about this. It makes him sound like he's a Giants fan.
But Husian Abdullah is probably not one of those guys, and Viking Update's John Holler reported on Sunday that Abdullah has been told by concussion specialists in Pittsburgh that he can play football again.
Abdullah had been seriously contemplating retirement after suffering his fourth concussion in two seasons last fall. The fourth concussion landed him on the injured reserve after the Vikings ninth game and ended this season.
And although watching San Francisco 49ers free safety Dashon Goldson the past two weeks smash opposing receivers, deftly jump routes and make several plays on the ball illustrates the gap that lies between good safety play and what the Vikings have been doing for several seasons, I still consider the news on Abdullah a positive development.
Abdullah is no Pro Bowler – at least he hasn't shown that ability yet – but he's a decent enough player that the Vikings can feel pretty good about putting him out there at free safety next season. That allows them to concentrate on other pressing matters such as making upgrades at cornerback, strong safety and even linebacker to improve the pass defence.
If the Washington State alum had been told his career was over because of concussions, it would have added to an already long list of positions the Vikings management must find replacements for. But as long as Abdullah can stay clear of concussions next season, the Vikes should be okay at free safety. In Vikings country these days, we call that progress.
Some (very) brief Super Bowl thoughts
So it's the New York Giants against the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl again.
I did not watch the Pats-Ravens game Sunday, but I did get a chance to watch the entire Giants-49ers game. What a grinder of a contest that was. It may have been a thrilling game, but I don't think it was a great game. The offences were too bad in the second half for me to rank it as a great game (both defensive units had something to do with that, however). But the Giants win does set up the best possible Super Bowl matchup. Consider the alternatives:
* Ravens-49ers. Uggh. I would have envisioned a 5-3 score, with Baltimore winning by a safety.
* Pats-49ers – I think Bill Belichick would have had some fun gameplanning for Alex Smith.
* Ravens-Giants. Meh.
And maybe this is just me, but I find it odd how Fox color commentator Troy Aikman always refers to New York quarterback Eli Manning as "Eli", like he's his son or something. That is an odd habit for an announcer to have. I don't hear Aikman calling other quarterbacks by their first name for an entire game. Somebody should have a word with him about this. It makes him sound like he's a Giants fan.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
49ers rise to prominence in non-Bill Walsh fashion
Football Outsiders and New York Times NFL writer Mike Tanier previews the Giants-49ers NFC Championship game and the Patriots-Ravens AFC Championship game.
The thought of the Patriots getting another chance to win a Super Bowl leaves me with a sick feeling. Haven't they had enough success the past 10 years or so? I don't know if I can stomach watching it.
But I am excited about the Giants-49ers game. The Giants are hot and playing great football. Meanwhile, the 49ers are a team I can respect – great special teams play, a hellacious-hitting defence and an offence that doesn't fuck things up. At least offensively, this team doesn't resemble Bill Walsh's offensive juggernauts. But they are just as effective.
In fact, the 49ers kind of remind me a bit of the 2008 Vikings. The one big difference: Alex Smith has played much better than Gus Frerotte or Tarvaris Jackson. (Sigh.)
The thought of the Patriots getting another chance to win a Super Bowl leaves me with a sick feeling. Haven't they had enough success the past 10 years or so? I don't know if I can stomach watching it.
But I am excited about the Giants-49ers game. The Giants are hot and playing great football. Meanwhile, the 49ers are a team I can respect – great special teams play, a hellacious-hitting defence and an offence that doesn't fuck things up. At least offensively, this team doesn't resemble Bill Walsh's offensive juggernauts. But they are just as effective.
In fact, the 49ers kind of remind me a bit of the 2008 Vikings. The one big difference: Alex Smith has played much better than Gus Frerotte or Tarvaris Jackson. (Sigh.)
Friday, January 20, 2012
Now that the Vikings have added Williams, they need to add some players
The Minnesota Vikings made it official on Thursday, as former Indianapolis Colts defensive backs coach Alan Williams accepted the offer to become the squad's new defensive coordinator.
In the blog post I've linked to above, writer Jeremy Fowler points out the Colts pass defence wasn't bad from 2007-2011. But the defensive statistics of Football Outsiders tells a different story. Except for 2007, Indy was league average of worse in its performance covering wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. In short, Williams is no miracle worker.
Of course, I wouldn't expect him to be. And if he's going to be successful in 2012 as a defensive coordinator, the Vikings are going to have to stop getting abused by opposing quarterbacks and the people they throw passes to.
Minnesota has a massive amount of work to do to upgrade its secondary. Cedric Griffin is probably gone. Chris Cook will either be in jail or serving some kind of suspension when the 2012 seasons starts. And did anyone mention Antoine Winfield will be 35? Let's not forget starting safety Husain Abdullah is mulling retirement due to concussion concerns.
The starting safeties right now are Jamarca Sanford and Mistral Raymond. Without some large improvements here, Williams' first year as a coordinator in the NFL is going to be a difficult one. He better hope general manager Rick Spielman hits some home runs in free agency and the draft on the defensive side of the ball.
Other links
* ESPN's Kevin Seifert analyzes the changes the Vikings made (and didn't make) to their defensive coaching staff.
* You can't make this stuff up. The Colts are interested in interviewing ex-Vikings head coach Brad Childress for their vacant job.
* Thinking about some college prospects who might be future Vikings? The National Football Post's Wes Bunting takes a look at 10 senior college players on the offensive side of the ball in this post. The guy that intrigues me from this list is Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright. He registered some mad numbers this season. But he isn't very big (5'10, 190) and that will hurt his draft stock. Perhaps he's too similar a player to Percy Harvin for the Vikings to be interested, but the team needs help at wide receiver and Wright caught over 100 balls in 2011. If he's still around by the second round when the Vikings make their pick, will they take him?
In the blog post I've linked to above, writer Jeremy Fowler points out the Colts pass defence wasn't bad from 2007-2011. But the defensive statistics of Football Outsiders tells a different story. Except for 2007, Indy was league average of worse in its performance covering wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. In short, Williams is no miracle worker.
Of course, I wouldn't expect him to be. And if he's going to be successful in 2012 as a defensive coordinator, the Vikings are going to have to stop getting abused by opposing quarterbacks and the people they throw passes to.
Minnesota has a massive amount of work to do to upgrade its secondary. Cedric Griffin is probably gone. Chris Cook will either be in jail or serving some kind of suspension when the 2012 seasons starts. And did anyone mention Antoine Winfield will be 35? Let's not forget starting safety Husain Abdullah is mulling retirement due to concussion concerns.
The starting safeties right now are Jamarca Sanford and Mistral Raymond. Without some large improvements here, Williams' first year as a coordinator in the NFL is going to be a difficult one. He better hope general manager Rick Spielman hits some home runs in free agency and the draft on the defensive side of the ball.
Other links
* ESPN's Kevin Seifert analyzes the changes the Vikings made (and didn't make) to their defensive coaching staff.
* You can't make this stuff up. The Colts are interested in interviewing ex-Vikings head coach Brad Childress for their vacant job.
* Thinking about some college prospects who might be future Vikings? The National Football Post's Wes Bunting takes a look at 10 senior college players on the offensive side of the ball in this post. The guy that intrigues me from this list is Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright. He registered some mad numbers this season. But he isn't very big (5'10, 190) and that will hurt his draft stock. Perhaps he's too similar a player to Percy Harvin for the Vikings to be interested, but the team needs help at wide receiver and Wright caught over 100 balls in 2011. If he's still around by the second round when the Vikings make their pick, will they take him?
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Vikings could be close to ending search for defensive coordinator
So you are the head coach of a team that tied a franchise record for futility by losing 13 games last season and you're looking for a new defensive coordinator. What do you do?
If you are Minnesota Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier, you offer the job to a guy who coached for a team that was even worse than the Vikings were in 2011. Pure genius.
To be fair though, the Indianapolis Colts defence gave up fewer points in 2011 (430) than the Vikings (449) did. So maybe Alan Williams is the answer.
If you are Minnesota Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier, you offer the job to a guy who coached for a team that was even worse than the Vikings were in 2011. Pure genius.
To be fair though, the Indianapolis Colts defence gave up fewer points in 2011 (430) than the Vikings (449) did. So maybe Alan Williams is the answer.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Switch to 3-4 defence looking unlikely for Vikings
Star-Tribune writer Dan Weiderer authored a post that provided a decent – albeit a bit repetitive – analysis on why the Minnesota Vikings likely won't switch to a 3-4 defence.
I agree with the sentiments expressed by the anonymous Viking sources in this story who said that regardless of whether you are running a 4-3 or a 3-4, it's the players that make the scheme work, not the other way around. Here is what I know: The Vikings don't have enough good players right now to make either defensive scheme work.
The price of success
Kevin Seifert had an interesting post a couple of days ago looking at the dilemma the Detroit Lions are facing this season in regards to the rising salaries of wide receiver Calvin Johnson, among others.
Can Detroit sign them all? It's going to be difficult. The interesting guys from a Minnesota perspective are middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright. The Vikings need help at both spots and the team's personnel department will be quite familiar with both players' bodies of work, having played the Lions twice this season. I won't be surprised if new general manager Rick Spielman targets both in free agency.
And at the National Football Post Andrew Brandt has a nice look at the decisions the Green Bay Packers have to make regarding several players.
I don't see anybody on the list the Vikings would go after, They aren't signing center Scott Wells and the Pack will hold onto tight end Jermichael Finley (is James Jones a free agent?), but the Vikes have shown an affinity for Green Bay players in the past.
I agree with the sentiments expressed by the anonymous Viking sources in this story who said that regardless of whether you are running a 4-3 or a 3-4, it's the players that make the scheme work, not the other way around. Here is what I know: The Vikings don't have enough good players right now to make either defensive scheme work.
The price of success
Kevin Seifert had an interesting post a couple of days ago looking at the dilemma the Detroit Lions are facing this season in regards to the rising salaries of wide receiver Calvin Johnson, among others.
Can Detroit sign them all? It's going to be difficult. The interesting guys from a Minnesota perspective are middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright. The Vikings need help at both spots and the team's personnel department will be quite familiar with both players' bodies of work, having played the Lions twice this season. I won't be surprised if new general manager Rick Spielman targets both in free agency.
And at the National Football Post Andrew Brandt has a nice look at the decisions the Green Bay Packers have to make regarding several players.
I don't see anybody on the list the Vikings would go after, They aren't signing center Scott Wells and the Pack will hold onto tight end Jermichael Finley (is James Jones a free agent?), but the Vikes have shown an affinity for Green Bay players in the past.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Packers loss to Giants shows Vikings fans how far their team has to go towards respectability
I'm just as pleased as every other Viking fan that the Green Bay Packers were beaten quite soundly 37-20 by the New York Giants in the NFC Divisional playoff round. But even in defeat, the Packers showed why the distance separating themselves and the Vikes has grown from a foot-wide crack to an immense chasm since 2009.
Consider how the G-Men beat the mighty Pack on the road in this game. On offence, the Giants won not because they were able to run the ball well (they actually didn't get much going on the ground until their final touchdown drive). They won it because Eli Manning played like the elite quarterback he's been much of 2011. They won it because they have wide receivers – Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz – who can get open consistently and make big plays down field. And they won because their offensive line gave Manning plenty of time to find Nicks and Cruz and Mario Manningham and Travis Beckham.
On defence, they won it not because they got much pressure on Aaron Rodgers or because they stopped the run, although that helped. They won because they have linebackers and cornerbacks and safeties who can cover a talented group of receivers and tight ends in space, because those guys can make plays on the ball, tackle soundly and force turnovers.
In others words, they do all the things the Vikings have not been able to do for two seasons now.
As new general Rick Spielman develops his master plan for rebuilding the Vikings, he should be watching tape from this game closely. I know the Giants haven't had knockout records since their Super Bowl win in 2007, but they are the team the Vikings would do well to copy.
Pagac is out, but who's in?
The Vikings have removed Fred Pagac from the defensive coordinator role, and as Judd Zulgad notes, his replacement could be linebackers coach Mike Singletary.
If that happens, it will be an early sign to me that 2012 won't be a whole lot different than 2011 was for the Vikings. Singletary did not distinguish himself in his first season with the Vikings. But at this point the job might go to Singletary by default. No one else seems all that interested in the position.
Consider how the G-Men beat the mighty Pack on the road in this game. On offence, the Giants won not because they were able to run the ball well (they actually didn't get much going on the ground until their final touchdown drive). They won it because Eli Manning played like the elite quarterback he's been much of 2011. They won it because they have wide receivers – Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz – who can get open consistently and make big plays down field. And they won because their offensive line gave Manning plenty of time to find Nicks and Cruz and Mario Manningham and Travis Beckham.
On defence, they won it not because they got much pressure on Aaron Rodgers or because they stopped the run, although that helped. They won because they have linebackers and cornerbacks and safeties who can cover a talented group of receivers and tight ends in space, because those guys can make plays on the ball, tackle soundly and force turnovers.
In others words, they do all the things the Vikings have not been able to do for two seasons now.
As new general Rick Spielman develops his master plan for rebuilding the Vikings, he should be watching tape from this game closely. I know the Giants haven't had knockout records since their Super Bowl win in 2007, but they are the team the Vikings would do well to copy.
Pagac is out, but who's in?
The Vikings have removed Fred Pagac from the defensive coordinator role, and as Judd Zulgad notes, his replacement could be linebackers coach Mike Singletary.
If that happens, it will be an early sign to me that 2012 won't be a whole lot different than 2011 was for the Vikings. Singletary did not distinguish himself in his first season with the Vikings. But at this point the job might go to Singletary by default. No one else seems all that interested in the position.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Vikes get good news on the injury front in regards to Toby Gerhart
Good news has been in short supply for the Minnesota Vikings in 2011, so it was noteworthy to read ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero report that Vikings second-year backup running back Toby Gerhart won't require surgery after hurting his MCL in the season finale.
If Gerhart had needed surgery, the Vikings would have been looking at possibly starting training camp with Lorenzo Booker, Caleb King and Jordan Todman as their stable of healthy running backs. (And you think the Vikings offence stunk last year.)
That Gerhart should be completely healthy for OTAs and training camp is good news considering nobody knows how football-ready Adrian Peterson will be when July arrives. During the five games he was the starting running back while Peterson was injured, Gerhart showed he can be an effective player. Not Peterson effective, mind you, more like Peyton Hillis effective.
Watching Gerhart get the bulk of the carries late in the season gave me a new appreciation for his running style. I enjoyed watching him bowl over smaller defenders on his runs. He ran with more power and more confidence than we saw in his rookie year, and he showed good hands out of the backfield. During his two seasons in the NFL, Gerhart's rushing stats have been surprisingly excellent – 853 yards on 190 carries, good for a 4.9 yard per carry average. Gerhart should be fine as the Vikings top running back if Peterson's rehab from his left knee injury doesn't go so well. This is important. It allows the Vikings to focus on other issues during free agency and the draft – like left tackle, cornerback, safety, middle linebacker and wide receiver.
• As for Peterson, he was full of smiles and optimism during a Friday press conference where he and head trainer Eric Sugarman talked about his surgery and rehab so far. To hear him say his goal is to be ready for game one and that he'll be better than before once he comes back makes this Vikings fan get all tingly inside. As far-fetched as it sounds, Peterson is the one guy I'd bet could make it happen.
So why isn't Peterson spending the offseason the Twin Cities with Sugarman so he can have one of the best medical guys in football oversee the rehab on a daily basis? I know Houston is a bit warmer than Minneapolis in January, February and March, but this is a career-threatening injury Peterson has sustained. I'd want Sugarman by my side the entire time.
• Great game today between San Francisco and New Orleans. But don't you think 49ers quarterback Alex Smith looks a lot like Ryan Gosling?
If Gerhart had needed surgery, the Vikings would have been looking at possibly starting training camp with Lorenzo Booker, Caleb King and Jordan Todman as their stable of healthy running backs. (And you think the Vikings offence stunk last year.)
That Gerhart should be completely healthy for OTAs and training camp is good news considering nobody knows how football-ready Adrian Peterson will be when July arrives. During the five games he was the starting running back while Peterson was injured, Gerhart showed he can be an effective player. Not Peterson effective, mind you, more like Peyton Hillis effective.
Watching Gerhart get the bulk of the carries late in the season gave me a new appreciation for his running style. I enjoyed watching him bowl over smaller defenders on his runs. He ran with more power and more confidence than we saw in his rookie year, and he showed good hands out of the backfield. During his two seasons in the NFL, Gerhart's rushing stats have been surprisingly excellent – 853 yards on 190 carries, good for a 4.9 yard per carry average. Gerhart should be fine as the Vikings top running back if Peterson's rehab from his left knee injury doesn't go so well. This is important. It allows the Vikings to focus on other issues during free agency and the draft – like left tackle, cornerback, safety, middle linebacker and wide receiver.
• As for Peterson, he was full of smiles and optimism during a Friday press conference where he and head trainer Eric Sugarman talked about his surgery and rehab so far. To hear him say his goal is to be ready for game one and that he'll be better than before once he comes back makes this Vikings fan get all tingly inside. As far-fetched as it sounds, Peterson is the one guy I'd bet could make it happen.
So why isn't Peterson spending the offseason the Twin Cities with Sugarman so he can have one of the best medical guys in football oversee the rehab on a daily basis? I know Houston is a bit warmer than Minneapolis in January, February and March, but this is a career-threatening injury Peterson has sustained. I'd want Sugarman by my side the entire time.
• Great game today between San Francisco and New Orleans. But don't you think 49ers quarterback Alex Smith looks a lot like Ryan Gosling?
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Shifting rhetoric from Vikes Bagley a positive sign on the stadium front
Thursday's story by ESPN 1500's Judd Zulgad about the Vikings stadium situation featured some interesting comments from the team's stadium mouthpiece Lester Bagley.
Up until now, Bagley's public comments have all been designed to stress owner Zygi Wilf's preferred site in Arden Hills is the best, most viable option and that other options – like building a new stadium in Minneapolis – are inferior.
But in Zulgad's story linked above Bagley was whistling a much different tune.
Bagley was also quoted by Zulgad about the possibility of building on the Metrodome site, which the Vikes don't want to do: "the Metrodome site could be a workable site," Bagley said.
Well then.
If you're a Viking fan (and just about anybody reading this blog is) Bagley's comments are encouraging. I didn't read any threats. Bagley sounds ammenable to accepting whatever stadium proposal the state decides to approve – although that's no sure thing with the American economy struggling like it is.
I feel that after several years of turning the "what if the Vikings leave Minnesota" question over in my brain, we are close to a resolution here. It's about time.
As the defensive coordinator turns
So now Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Juan Castillo might be a candidate for the Vikings defensive coordinator job? Wake me up when this shit show is over.
Up until now, Bagley's public comments have all been designed to stress owner Zygi Wilf's preferred site in Arden Hills is the best, most viable option and that other options – like building a new stadium in Minneapolis – are inferior.
But in Zulgad's story linked above Bagley was whistling a much different tune.
"While the Vikings believe the Arden Hills site is the ideal site, there's a lot more that goes into this than the site," Bagley said. "There's the finance component, the local contribution as well as the overall state package. If the public side is going to put in approximately 60 percent of the equation, the public's going to have a say on the location of the facility."
Bagley was also quoted by Zulgad about the possibility of building on the Metrodome site, which the Vikes don't want to do: "the Metrodome site could be a workable site," Bagley said.
Well then.
If you're a Viking fan (and just about anybody reading this blog is) Bagley's comments are encouraging. I didn't read any threats. Bagley sounds ammenable to accepting whatever stadium proposal the state decides to approve – although that's no sure thing with the American economy struggling like it is.
I feel that after several years of turning the "what if the Vikings leave Minnesota" question over in my brain, we are close to a resolution here. It's about time.
As the defensive coordinator turns
So now Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Juan Castillo might be a candidate for the Vikings defensive coordinator job? Wake me up when this shit show is over.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Leslie Frazier's handling of defensive coaching staff is cause for concern
When the Minnesota Vikings season ended on January 1st, it was assumed head coach Leslie Frazier would jettison several members of the defensive coaching staff who had presided over a unit that had slipped out of the top ten against the run and was historically bad defending the pass.
But here we are two weeks after the Vikings final game and the search for new coaching talent isn't going so well.
ESPN 1500 Vikes beat writers Judd Zulgad and Tom Pelissero had an interesting video chat about that situation that was posted on the website on Wednesday. I would advise all Viking fans to watch the thing in full. It's quite interesting. It's also quite disturbing.
What disturbs me about Zulgad and Pelissero's comments are the following issues:
1) Frazier's handling of the coaching changes. For two straight years he's allowed certain assistants to twist in the wind and watch potential replacements interview for their jobs. If Frazier is going to treat his assistant coaches that way and not be straight about his intentions, I think that sends a bad message to any potential candidate. Why would they take a job on Frazier's staff when they could end up in the same situation someday?
2) To hear that Frazier's uncertain future beyond 2012 is impacting the search to hire new coaches on the defensive side of the ball. Because potential candidates can't be sure Frazier will be back as head coach beyond next season, that doesn't give them the kind of job security – such as it is in the NFL – they need to take a job with the Vikings.
3) To hear that Minnesota might not be a desirable landing spot for any bright defensive minds looking for work. Is the Vikings defence looking like such a mess that they can't convince anybody with a decent track record to take the defensive coordinator job?
The Vikings seem to be interested in Jacksonville's Mel Tucker, but if they can't get him, and Steve Spagnuolo takes a job in Philly, as expected, who do the Vikings hire to replace current coordinator Fred Pagac?
Does linebacker coach Mike Singletary – who the current players consider incompetent – get the job by default? Or do they have to stick with Pagac? (all things considered, this might not be a terrible thing, especially if it keeps Singletary from getting the job.)
It all adds up to a bit of a smozzle for the Vikings and Leslie Frazier. And as we head into the most important offseason the Vikings have had in franchise history, the amateurish nature of this coaching search doesn't fill me with confidence that Frazier and the Vikings can make any of the other moves required to get this team back to contending for a playoff spot.
Give me some good news here. After a 3-13 season, I need it.
But here we are two weeks after the Vikings final game and the search for new coaching talent isn't going so well.
ESPN 1500 Vikes beat writers Judd Zulgad and Tom Pelissero had an interesting video chat about that situation that was posted on the website on Wednesday. I would advise all Viking fans to watch the thing in full. It's quite interesting. It's also quite disturbing.
What disturbs me about Zulgad and Pelissero's comments are the following issues:
1) Frazier's handling of the coaching changes. For two straight years he's allowed certain assistants to twist in the wind and watch potential replacements interview for their jobs. If Frazier is going to treat his assistant coaches that way and not be straight about his intentions, I think that sends a bad message to any potential candidate. Why would they take a job on Frazier's staff when they could end up in the same situation someday?
2) To hear that Frazier's uncertain future beyond 2012 is impacting the search to hire new coaches on the defensive side of the ball. Because potential candidates can't be sure Frazier will be back as head coach beyond next season, that doesn't give them the kind of job security – such as it is in the NFL – they need to take a job with the Vikings.
3) To hear that Minnesota might not be a desirable landing spot for any bright defensive minds looking for work. Is the Vikings defence looking like such a mess that they can't convince anybody with a decent track record to take the defensive coordinator job?
The Vikings seem to be interested in Jacksonville's Mel Tucker, but if they can't get him, and Steve Spagnuolo takes a job in Philly, as expected, who do the Vikings hire to replace current coordinator Fred Pagac?
Does linebacker coach Mike Singletary – who the current players consider incompetent – get the job by default? Or do they have to stick with Pagac? (all things considered, this might not be a terrible thing, especially if it keeps Singletary from getting the job.)
It all adds up to a bit of a smozzle for the Vikings and Leslie Frazier. And as we head into the most important offseason the Vikings have had in franchise history, the amateurish nature of this coaching search doesn't fill me with confidence that Frazier and the Vikings can make any of the other moves required to get this team back to contending for a playoff spot.
Give me some good news here. After a 3-13 season, I need it.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Vikes are interested in Mel Tucker, but is Mel Tucker interested in the Vikes?
There is silence at Winter Park when it comes to changes to Leslie Frazier's coaching staff.
It's been over a week since the Vikings stunk it up in the season finale with a 17-13 loss to Chicago – a fitting end to a miserable 2011. Wholesale changes were expected to be made on the defensive side of the ball. But Fred Pagac is still the defensive coordinator and only defensive line coach Karl Dunbar has been let go thus far.
Former Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris has been interviewed. Now the Vikings want to talk to Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. With Steve Spagnuolo, apparently set to return to the Philadelphia Eagles, it looks like the Vikings won't even get a chance to interview him for the coordinator position. (Heavy sigh – the Vikings rarely make a move I want them to.)
Tucker is an interesting possibility, however. I had never heard of him until he took over as interim head coach after Jack Del Rio was fired. Calling the plays for the first time as a defensive coordinator with the Jaguars this season, the team had the fifth-best defence in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders (in the spirit of fairness, the Jags were ranked 32nd and 29th overall in 2010 and 2009, respectively by FO, in Tucker's other two seasons as Jacksonville's top defensive assistant.)
So Tucker has some chops, and he is also well-versed in running a 3-4 defence thanks to his one year serving as defensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns. But is Tucker interested in a Vikings job? Leslie Frazier's hold on the head coaching gig beyond 2012 is tenuous and the unit is lacking talent at cornerback and linebacker? It's not exactly an attractive scenario for a guy who should draw interest from other squad's looking to hire a new defensive coordinator.
It's been over a week since the Vikings stunk it up in the season finale with a 17-13 loss to Chicago – a fitting end to a miserable 2011. Wholesale changes were expected to be made on the defensive side of the ball. But Fred Pagac is still the defensive coordinator and only defensive line coach Karl Dunbar has been let go thus far.
Former Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris has been interviewed. Now the Vikings want to talk to Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. With Steve Spagnuolo, apparently set to return to the Philadelphia Eagles, it looks like the Vikings won't even get a chance to interview him for the coordinator position. (Heavy sigh – the Vikings rarely make a move I want them to.)
Tucker is an interesting possibility, however. I had never heard of him until he took over as interim head coach after Jack Del Rio was fired. Calling the plays for the first time as a defensive coordinator with the Jaguars this season, the team had the fifth-best defence in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders (in the spirit of fairness, the Jags were ranked 32nd and 29th overall in 2010 and 2009, respectively by FO, in Tucker's other two seasons as Jacksonville's top defensive assistant.)
So Tucker has some chops, and he is also well-versed in running a 3-4 defence thanks to his one year serving as defensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns. But is Tucker interested in a Vikings job? Leslie Frazier's hold on the head coaching gig beyond 2012 is tenuous and the unit is lacking talent at cornerback and linebacker? It's not exactly an attractive scenario for a guy who should draw interest from other squad's looking to hire a new defensive coordinator.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
What Grant's Tomb was reading – Jan. 8, 2012
A look at a few stories that interested me over the weekend.
* The Vikings are busy interviewing candidates for the defensive coordinator job even though they haven't fired Fred Pagac yet. I've made my feelings known on this subject already. Former St. Louis Rams head coach and New York Giants coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, should be the Vikings top choice. He will operate a different system than the Tampa 2 defence, but wouldn't move away from the 4-3 alignment head coach Leslie Frazier prefers. I'm shocked to hear that Vikings linebacker coach Mike Singletary is reportedly going to get an interview as well. What has he done to deserve the interview other than being Frazier's good buddy? He was responsible for a unit that was not very good this season and its best player – Chad Greenway – had a horrible year. Couple that with the stuff ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero dregged up about Singletary's performance (go to about the 8:20 mark of this video) and I'll go apeshit if this dolt gets the job over Spagnuolo.
* Speaking of dolts, the NFL Network's Jason La Canfora tweeted former Vikings head coach Brad Childress will be interviewed by the Tampa Bay Bucs and could end up as their offensive coordinator under new coach Mike Sherman. There is no need to rehash Chilly's coaching history here, but I'll do it anyway. As offensive coordinator with Philly he never called the plays but was given credit for developing Donovan McNabb into a Pro Bowl player. But as head coach of the Vikes, Chilly was the overlord of the offence and often did call the plays. During that time the Vikes offence ranked 26th, 15th, 12th and 29th in points scored (they ranked second during the 2009 dream season.) He also failed miserably in developing Tarvaris Jackson. Tampa Bay would be wise to look elsewhere for its new OC.
* ESPN's Kevin Seifert gives us a post-mortem on the Detroit Lions playoff loss against New Orleans Saturday night. I watched this game and even though the Lions lost, that offence looks terrifying, even without a great running game. Brandon Pettigrew is big and has nice hands. Titus Young looks like an emerging deep threat. Nate Burleson is a solid veteran who can't be ignored. Matt Stafford can throw darts and do it with accuracy. And Calvin Johnson is the wide receiver Randy Moss would have been if Ole' 84 had been 35 pounds heavier and wasn't such a pussy. Johnson looks unstoppable. Twelve catches for 211 yards and two TDs in this game? That is three of his last four games where Johnson has had at least nine catches for over 200 yards. Nobody has an answer for this guy right now. And they won't next year or the year after that. It's not just the Green Bay Packers the Vikings have to leapfrog in the NFC North.
Update
* Speculation about the 2012 college draft will dominate talk among Vikings fans this offseason, so here is a look at one mock draft done at the Vikings Territory blog. It's pretty well done, and doesn't predict the Vikings getting USC left tackle Matt Kalil. Instead, they trade down with Washington, acquiring additional selections and select LSU cornerback Morris Clairborne. Personally, I think St. Louis takes Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon, giving the Vikings the chance to draft Kalil. But drafts very rarely go the way we expect them to. The linked mock draft also hinges on what decision this college quarterback makes this week.
* The Vikings are busy interviewing candidates for the defensive coordinator job even though they haven't fired Fred Pagac yet. I've made my feelings known on this subject already. Former St. Louis Rams head coach and New York Giants coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, should be the Vikings top choice. He will operate a different system than the Tampa 2 defence, but wouldn't move away from the 4-3 alignment head coach Leslie Frazier prefers. I'm shocked to hear that Vikings linebacker coach Mike Singletary is reportedly going to get an interview as well. What has he done to deserve the interview other than being Frazier's good buddy? He was responsible for a unit that was not very good this season and its best player – Chad Greenway – had a horrible year. Couple that with the stuff ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero dregged up about Singletary's performance (go to about the 8:20 mark of this video) and I'll go apeshit if this dolt gets the job over Spagnuolo.
* Speaking of dolts, the NFL Network's Jason La Canfora tweeted former Vikings head coach Brad Childress will be interviewed by the Tampa Bay Bucs and could end up as their offensive coordinator under new coach Mike Sherman. There is no need to rehash Chilly's coaching history here, but I'll do it anyway. As offensive coordinator with Philly he never called the plays but was given credit for developing Donovan McNabb into a Pro Bowl player. But as head coach of the Vikes, Chilly was the overlord of the offence and often did call the plays. During that time the Vikes offence ranked 26th, 15th, 12th and 29th in points scored (they ranked second during the 2009 dream season.) He also failed miserably in developing Tarvaris Jackson. Tampa Bay would be wise to look elsewhere for its new OC.
* ESPN's Kevin Seifert gives us a post-mortem on the Detroit Lions playoff loss against New Orleans Saturday night. I watched this game and even though the Lions lost, that offence looks terrifying, even without a great running game. Brandon Pettigrew is big and has nice hands. Titus Young looks like an emerging deep threat. Nate Burleson is a solid veteran who can't be ignored. Matt Stafford can throw darts and do it with accuracy. And Calvin Johnson is the wide receiver Randy Moss would have been if Ole' 84 had been 35 pounds heavier and wasn't such a pussy. Johnson looks unstoppable. Twelve catches for 211 yards and two TDs in this game? That is three of his last four games where Johnson has had at least nine catches for over 200 yards. Nobody has an answer for this guy right now. And they won't next year or the year after that. It's not just the Green Bay Packers the Vikings have to leapfrog in the NFC North.
Update
* Speculation about the 2012 college draft will dominate talk among Vikings fans this offseason, so here is a look at one mock draft done at the Vikings Territory blog. It's pretty well done, and doesn't predict the Vikings getting USC left tackle Matt Kalil. Instead, they trade down with Washington, acquiring additional selections and select LSU cornerback Morris Clairborne. Personally, I think St. Louis takes Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon, giving the Vikings the chance to draft Kalil. But drafts very rarely go the way we expect them to. The linked mock draft also hinges on what decision this college quarterback makes this week.
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Despite a difficult rookie season, there's still hope for Vikings Christian Ponder
I think every Viking fan should acknowledge that rookie quarterback Christian Ponder mostly stunk (when he wasn’t getting injured) in three of his final four games of the 2011 season.
Those performances (and the play of backup Joe Webb when Ponder was out) has more than a few Viking fanatics concerned. Might the 12th overall pick in the 2011 college draft be a budding bust, rather than the quarterback of the future the Vikings have needed since Daunte Culpepper shredded his knee in 2005?
It’s an important question, and attempting to answer it requires a little perspective. So I decided to see how Ponder’s passing statistics compared to the first year’s of the 31 other starting QBs in 2011 who saw their first significant playing time in the NFL. Is there anything we can learn from those statistics? Let’s take a look.
Below I’ve compiled the passing stats from those seasons for all 32 quarterbacks who were essentially starters for their teams in 2011. The one QB listed who doesn’t fit this criteria is the Colts Peyton Manning, who didn’t play at all in 2011 because of a neck injury. But I’ve included his rookie numbers because he obviously would have been the starter if not for his neck woes, and there’s no point in mentioning Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky unless I have to. Anyway, have a gander at the following QB stats.
NFC North
Christian Ponder: 54.3 %; 1,853; 13 TDs; 13 INTS (rookie)
Aaron Rodgers: 64.7 %; 4,038; 28 TDs; 13 INTs (4th year)
Jay Cutler: 59.1 %; 1,001; 9 TDs; 5 INTs (rookie)
Matt Stafford: 53.3 %; 2,267; 13 TDs; 20 INTs (rookie)
NFC East
Eli Manning: 48.2 %; 1,043; 6 TDs; 9 INTs (rookie)
Tony Romo: 65.3 %; 2,903; 19 TDs; 13 INTs (4th year)
Michael Vick: 54.9 %; 2,936: 16 TDs; 8 INTs (2nd year)
Rex Grossman: 54.6 %; 3,193; 23 TDs; 20 INTs (4th year)
NFC South
Matt Ryan: 61.1 %; 3,440; 16 TDs; 11 INTs (rookie)
Cam Newton: 60 %; 4.051; 21 TDs; 17 INTs (rookie)
Drew Brees: 60.8 %; 3,284; 17 TDs; 16 INTs (2nd year)
Josh Freeman: 54.5 %; 1,855; 10 TDs; 18 INTs (rookie)
NFC West
Alex Smith: 50.9; 875; 1 TD; 11 INTs (rookie)
Tarvaris Jackson: 58.2 %; 1,911; 9 TDs; 12 INTs (2nd year)
Kevin Kolb: 60.8 %; 1,197; 7 TDs; 7 INTs (4th year)
Sam Bradford: 60 %; 3,512; 18 TDs; 15 INTs (rookie)
AFC North
Joe Flacco: 60 %; 2,971; 14 TDs; 12 INTs (rookie)
Ben Roethlisberger: 66.4 %; 2,621; 17 TDs; 11 INTs (rookie)
Andy Dalton: 58.1; 3,398; 20 TDs; 13 INTs (rookie)
Colt McCoy: 60.8 %; 1,576; 6 TDS; 9 INTs (rookie)
AFC East
Tom Brady: 63.9 %; 2,843; 18 TDs; 12 INTs (2nd year)
Mark Sanchez: 53.8; 2,444; 12 TDs; 20 INTs (rookie)
Matt Moore: 61.6 %; 1,053; 8 TDs; 2 INTs (3rd year)
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 59.4 %; 1,905; 8 TDS; 9 INTs (4th year)
AFC South
Matt Schaub: 66.4 %; 2,241; 9 TDS; 9 INTs (4th year)
Matt Hasselback: 54.8 %; 2,203; 7 TDs; 8 INTs (3rd year)
Blaine Gabbert: 50.8 %; 2,214; 12 TDS; 11 INTs (rookie)
Peyton Manning: 56.7 %; 3,739; 26 TDS; 28 INTs (rookie)
AFC West
Tim Tebow: 46.5 %; 1,729; 12 TDs; 6 INTs (2nd year)
Philip Rivers: 61.7 %; 3,388; 22 TDS; 9 INTs (3rd year)
Carson Palmer: 60.9 %; 2,897; 18 TDs; 18 INTs (2nd year)
Matt Cassel: 63.4 %; 3,693; 21 TDs; 11 INTs (4th year)
Now, those stats might take a few minutes to digest on your own, so allow me to speed things along. Is there anything in these numbers that gives us hope that Ponder’s play late in his rookie campaign isn’t a sign he was a wasted pick?
I think there is. First of all, the data shows that it’s normal for rookie QBs to struggle. In the list above 14 other QBs did what Ponder had to do in 2011 – they saw their first significant playing time during their rookie season. Seven had what we’d consider good (Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford) or very good (Roethlisberger, Newton, Dalton) years. Only four completed 60 per cent or better of their passes. And six of the 14 threw more interceptions than touchdowns – even Peyton Manning.
Ponder suffers this year from being compared to two guys from his draft class that had outstanding years – Newton and Dalton. But overall, his numbers compare favorably with most of the QBs who got extended playing time in their rookie seasons. We can also be encouraged that Ponder probably played better in his first season than Detroit’s Stafford and New York’s Eli Manning did in theirs, and those two guys are coming off outstanding seasons in 2011.
The other bit of knowledge I take from the stats is that sitting on the bench and learning the NFL game for a year or two seems a better way to develop a quarterback than to throw him to the wolves in his first season. Look at the numbers posted by the likes of Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Romo – even Matt Cassel. I wonder what their passing stats would have looked like if they had been asked to do what Ponder did in their first season?
This isn’t meant to criticize the Vikings coaching staff and management’s handling of Ponder – Donovan McNabb’s play didn’t give them much choice. But I point this out because if Vikings fans expected Ponder to be consistently dynamite – or even consistently average – this season, they haven’t been paying attention to how rookie QBs typically fare in the NFL.
Ponder’s got a lot to work on this offseason. Much of the improvement is on him. The two biggest flaws Viking observers saw in him in 2011 were horrible decision-making when he passed the ball and skittishness in the pocket (ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer thinks this is a fatal flaw.) But those things seem correctable given Ponder’s intelligence, work ethic and athletic gifts.
However, if Ponder is to take a significant step forward in 2012 – and he must if the Vikings don’t want to be in the same situation in 2013 that they are in now – new general manager Rick Spielman also has a huge role to play.
First, Spielman needs to bring in offensive line help, particularly a legit left tackle, so Ponder has the time to throw and so he won’t get beat up like he did this year. Spielman must also give Ponder somebody to throw to other than Percy Harvin. The Vikings had no deep passing threat in 2011 and really no one you could count on to make a play or get open other than Harvin. Tight end Kyle Rudolph shows promise, but the Vikings need to add more talent at the receiving position. If Spielman can do that (hint: the Chargers’ Vincent Jackson is a free agent), and Ponder makes the appropriate improvements in his game, fans won’t be clamoring for Webb in 2013.
Those performances (and the play of backup Joe Webb when Ponder was out) has more than a few Viking fanatics concerned. Might the 12th overall pick in the 2011 college draft be a budding bust, rather than the quarterback of the future the Vikings have needed since Daunte Culpepper shredded his knee in 2005?
It’s an important question, and attempting to answer it requires a little perspective. So I decided to see how Ponder’s passing statistics compared to the first year’s of the 31 other starting QBs in 2011 who saw their first significant playing time in the NFL. Is there anything we can learn from those statistics? Let’s take a look.
Below I’ve compiled the passing stats from those seasons for all 32 quarterbacks who were essentially starters for their teams in 2011. The one QB listed who doesn’t fit this criteria is the Colts Peyton Manning, who didn’t play at all in 2011 because of a neck injury. But I’ve included his rookie numbers because he obviously would have been the starter if not for his neck woes, and there’s no point in mentioning Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky unless I have to. Anyway, have a gander at the following QB stats.
NFC North
Christian Ponder: 54.3 %; 1,853; 13 TDs; 13 INTS (rookie)
Aaron Rodgers: 64.7 %; 4,038; 28 TDs; 13 INTs (4th year)
Jay Cutler: 59.1 %; 1,001; 9 TDs; 5 INTs (rookie)
Matt Stafford: 53.3 %; 2,267; 13 TDs; 20 INTs (rookie)
NFC East
Eli Manning: 48.2 %; 1,043; 6 TDs; 9 INTs (rookie)
Tony Romo: 65.3 %; 2,903; 19 TDs; 13 INTs (4th year)
Michael Vick: 54.9 %; 2,936: 16 TDs; 8 INTs (2nd year)
Rex Grossman: 54.6 %; 3,193; 23 TDs; 20 INTs (4th year)
NFC South
Matt Ryan: 61.1 %; 3,440; 16 TDs; 11 INTs (rookie)
Cam Newton: 60 %; 4.051; 21 TDs; 17 INTs (rookie)
Drew Brees: 60.8 %; 3,284; 17 TDs; 16 INTs (2nd year)
Josh Freeman: 54.5 %; 1,855; 10 TDs; 18 INTs (rookie)
NFC West
Alex Smith: 50.9; 875; 1 TD; 11 INTs (rookie)
Tarvaris Jackson: 58.2 %; 1,911; 9 TDs; 12 INTs (2nd year)
Kevin Kolb: 60.8 %; 1,197; 7 TDs; 7 INTs (4th year)
Sam Bradford: 60 %; 3,512; 18 TDs; 15 INTs (rookie)
AFC North
Joe Flacco: 60 %; 2,971; 14 TDs; 12 INTs (rookie)
Ben Roethlisberger: 66.4 %; 2,621; 17 TDs; 11 INTs (rookie)
Andy Dalton: 58.1; 3,398; 20 TDs; 13 INTs (rookie)
Colt McCoy: 60.8 %; 1,576; 6 TDS; 9 INTs (rookie)
AFC East
Tom Brady: 63.9 %; 2,843; 18 TDs; 12 INTs (2nd year)
Mark Sanchez: 53.8; 2,444; 12 TDs; 20 INTs (rookie)
Matt Moore: 61.6 %; 1,053; 8 TDs; 2 INTs (3rd year)
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 59.4 %; 1,905; 8 TDS; 9 INTs (4th year)
AFC South
Matt Schaub: 66.4 %; 2,241; 9 TDS; 9 INTs (4th year)
Matt Hasselback: 54.8 %; 2,203; 7 TDs; 8 INTs (3rd year)
Blaine Gabbert: 50.8 %; 2,214; 12 TDS; 11 INTs (rookie)
Peyton Manning: 56.7 %; 3,739; 26 TDS; 28 INTs (rookie)
AFC West
Tim Tebow: 46.5 %; 1,729; 12 TDs; 6 INTs (2nd year)
Philip Rivers: 61.7 %; 3,388; 22 TDS; 9 INTs (3rd year)
Carson Palmer: 60.9 %; 2,897; 18 TDs; 18 INTs (2nd year)
Matt Cassel: 63.4 %; 3,693; 21 TDs; 11 INTs (4th year)
Now, those stats might take a few minutes to digest on your own, so allow me to speed things along. Is there anything in these numbers that gives us hope that Ponder’s play late in his rookie campaign isn’t a sign he was a wasted pick?
I think there is. First of all, the data shows that it’s normal for rookie QBs to struggle. In the list above 14 other QBs did what Ponder had to do in 2011 – they saw their first significant playing time during their rookie season. Seven had what we’d consider good (Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford) or very good (Roethlisberger, Newton, Dalton) years. Only four completed 60 per cent or better of their passes. And six of the 14 threw more interceptions than touchdowns – even Peyton Manning.
Ponder suffers this year from being compared to two guys from his draft class that had outstanding years – Newton and Dalton. But overall, his numbers compare favorably with most of the QBs who got extended playing time in their rookie seasons. We can also be encouraged that Ponder probably played better in his first season than Detroit’s Stafford and New York’s Eli Manning did in theirs, and those two guys are coming off outstanding seasons in 2011.
The other bit of knowledge I take from the stats is that sitting on the bench and learning the NFL game for a year or two seems a better way to develop a quarterback than to throw him to the wolves in his first season. Look at the numbers posted by the likes of Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Romo – even Matt Cassel. I wonder what their passing stats would have looked like if they had been asked to do what Ponder did in their first season?
This isn’t meant to criticize the Vikings coaching staff and management’s handling of Ponder – Donovan McNabb’s play didn’t give them much choice. But I point this out because if Vikings fans expected Ponder to be consistently dynamite – or even consistently average – this season, they haven’t been paying attention to how rookie QBs typically fare in the NFL.
Ponder’s got a lot to work on this offseason. Much of the improvement is on him. The two biggest flaws Viking observers saw in him in 2011 were horrible decision-making when he passed the ball and skittishness in the pocket (ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer thinks this is a fatal flaw.) But those things seem correctable given Ponder’s intelligence, work ethic and athletic gifts.
However, if Ponder is to take a significant step forward in 2012 – and he must if the Vikings don’t want to be in the same situation in 2013 that they are in now – new general manager Rick Spielman also has a huge role to play.
First, Spielman needs to bring in offensive line help, particularly a legit left tackle, so Ponder has the time to throw and so he won’t get beat up like he did this year. Spielman must also give Ponder somebody to throw to other than Percy Harvin. The Vikings had no deep passing threat in 2011 and really no one you could count on to make a play or get open other than Harvin. Tight end Kyle Rudolph shows promise, but the Vikings need to add more talent at the receiving position. If Spielman can do that (hint: the Chargers’ Vincent Jackson is a free agent), and Ponder makes the appropriate improvements in his game, fans won’t be clamoring for Webb in 2013.
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
Vikings do the expected and make Rick Spielman their general manager
Minnesota Vikings owner Zygi Wilf finally did today what team observers have been asking him to do for years now – hire a general manager.
But the good vibes wore off quickly when everyone learned Wilf had promoted the man some hold chiefly responsible for the Vikings 9-23 record the past two seasons and two consecutive last place finishes in the NFC North – Rick Spielman.
And fans of our opponents are loving the move. As one poster at the National Football Post wrote today after reading a story about the Spielman promotion on the site:
Ouch.
Anyway, I am not thrilled with the move, but it also wasn't unexpected. Wilf has had Spielman on board since he fired Fran Foley in 2006. He is familiar with Spielman's work and has watched him draft Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Brian Robison, John Sullivan, Sidney Rice, Everson Griffen, Kyle Rudolph and Christian Ponder. There are some pretty good players in that group. Wilf also watched Spielman orchestrate the Jared Allen trade. So he knows Spielman and trusts his judgement. If he didn't, he would have fired Spielman today, not promoted him.
We can debate how good Spielman has been as the Vikings vice-president of player personnel. And we'll debate how good he will be as general manager. We also know he carries the stain of being turfed by the Miami Dolphins after a less than glorious run with that franchise.
But the biggest problem I have with Spielman being promoted by the Wilfs is not his draft or free agent signing record, it's that there was a more qualified candidate available – Bill Polian – and Wilf and his brother Mark do not appear to have even considered the Hall of Fame executive.
Now it's possible Polian – who you might have heard was fired by the Indianapolis Colts on Monday – might not have had much interest in coming to Minnesota. And at 69 years young, he may not have been interested in the GM job (apparently, if you want to hire Bill Polian, you've got to hire his son Chris as well). But couldn't the Wilf's have at least explored the possibility?
In Polian, the Vikings would have got a guy who built Buffalo into a four-time Super Bowl participant, led the Carolina Panthers to the NFC Championship game and won a Super Bowl with the Colts. In Rick Speilman, the Vikings now have a guy in charge of their football operations who hasn't won anything.
But the good vibes wore off quickly when everyone learned Wilf had promoted the man some hold chiefly responsible for the Vikings 9-23 record the past two seasons and two consecutive last place finishes in the NFC North – Rick Spielman.
And fans of our opponents are loving the move. As one poster at the National Football Post wrote today after reading a story about the Spielman promotion on the site:
"As a Packer fan I thank the Vikings for this promotion. This guy couldn't pick talent at a Strip Club."
Ouch.
Anyway, I am not thrilled with the move, but it also wasn't unexpected. Wilf has had Spielman on board since he fired Fran Foley in 2006. He is familiar with Spielman's work and has watched him draft Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Brian Robison, John Sullivan, Sidney Rice, Everson Griffen, Kyle Rudolph and Christian Ponder. There are some pretty good players in that group. Wilf also watched Spielman orchestrate the Jared Allen trade. So he knows Spielman and trusts his judgement. If he didn't, he would have fired Spielman today, not promoted him.
We can debate how good Spielman has been as the Vikings vice-president of player personnel. And we'll debate how good he will be as general manager. We also know he carries the stain of being turfed by the Miami Dolphins after a less than glorious run with that franchise.
But the biggest problem I have with Spielman being promoted by the Wilfs is not his draft or free agent signing record, it's that there was a more qualified candidate available – Bill Polian – and Wilf and his brother Mark do not appear to have even considered the Hall of Fame executive.
Now it's possible Polian – who you might have heard was fired by the Indianapolis Colts on Monday – might not have had much interest in coming to Minnesota. And at 69 years young, he may not have been interested in the GM job (apparently, if you want to hire Bill Polian, you've got to hire his son Chris as well). But couldn't the Wilf's have at least explored the possibility?
In Polian, the Vikings would have got a guy who built Buffalo into a four-time Super Bowl participant, led the Carolina Panthers to the NFC Championship game and won a Super Bowl with the Colts. In Rick Speilman, the Vikings now have a guy in charge of their football operations who hasn't won anything.
Sunday, January 01, 2012
Vikings ring in 2012 with a thud
The Minnesota Vikings season-ending 17-13 loss to the Chicago Bears felt, and was played like, a pre-season game. There were multiple turnovers, quarterbacks that looked out of their element, botched field goals and scrubs playing late in the fourth quarter. The Vikings defence played well – although it did so without the Bears two top offensive players in the lineup. The offence, the unit we needed to see more improvement from, was horrible.
Joe Webb had a chance today to make a case that he deserves to be considered seriously as the Vikings starting quarterback in 2012. But if the team has to run this stripped-down offence (I think the Vikings ran the same three plays the entire second half) when Webb is playing, they had best turn him into a full-time receiver tomorrow.
At least the Vikings secured the number three overall pick in the college draft with the loss. But there was something unsettling about this affair. A loss in a shootout, with either Christian Ponder or Webb guiding the Vikings up and down the field, would have signaled a ray of hope for Vikings fans that a relatively quick turnaround is possible. But the Vikings two in-house candidates for the #1 quarterback position both struggled today. Webb and Ponder both look a long ways from being able to lead this team back to relevance.
The following months will be as an important an offseason as the Vikings have faced since they last went 3-13 in 1984. There are so many questions facing this franchise, it’s difficult to know where to start. But I’ll try.
Christian Ponder
Is Ponder the Vikings answer at quarterback? Before he got crushed and left the game for good, he didn’t play very well. He looked jumpy in the pocket again, was inaccurate – particularly on the screen pass to wide-open Toby Gerhart that led to a pick-six for the Bears. It was the latest in a disturbing string of poor performances by Ponder. For a guy who is supposed to have a high football IQ, his poor decisions throwing the football was worrying, as were his happy feet in the pocket. But Ponder had some good moments as well and he suffers in comparison to fellow rookies Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, who had outstanding rookie seasons. At this point there are only questions not answers about Ponder. He will have to answer some of them affirmatively in 2012.
Does Leslie Frazier deserve another year?
Yes. He was decisive in getting rid of deadweight like Bryant McKinnie and Bernard Berrian. He handled a tumultuous year (some of it his own doing) with dignity and class. Plus, the team kept playing hard when it could have packed it in. There are also plenty of demerits on Frazier’s resume, too. He frequently seems overmatched making in-game strategic decisions and his push to trade for Donovan McNabb turned out to be a disaster. But I think the Vikings need some stability during a time of instability. Frazier needs some time to implement his grand plan for the team. One year isn’t enough time to do so.
What about Bill Musgrave?
Keep him. Today’s offensive performance doesn’t provide me with much of an argument for keeping Musgrave. But Musgrave didn’t have much to work with. His play calling and personnel groupings left Viking fans scratching their heads at times, but the team also scored 28 points or more in three of its final five games. Musgrave also wisely made Percy Harvin the focal point of the offence after Adrian Peterson went down with a high ankle sprain against Oakland. That evolution should continue as the Vikings find Harvin some help in the passing game.
The Offensive Line
Fixing this unit has to be the Vikings top offseason priority. But it may not require an entire housecleaning. Almost everything I’ve read this season about center John Sullivan was glowingly positive. Phil Loadholt – annoying false starts aside – is fine at right tackle. Drafting USC’s Matt Kalil to start at left tackle is the key. That allows Charlie Johnson to move to guard to replace Anthony Herrera. If Steve Hutchinson retires, the Vikings can plug in Brandon Fusco or go the free agent route. If Hutchinson returns for another season, that’s okay as well. Give this unit a full offseason of working together and we might be surprised by the improvement.
The Wide Receivers
Harvin is a marvel, but other than Stephen Burton, whose size (6’1, 224 pounds) and age (22) warrants a second look next year, the rest of this sorry crew needs to be gone. That includes 30-year-old Michael Jenkins, who could serve as an okay #3 wideout on a contending team, but is a needless luxury on a rebuilding one. Any warm body could provide what Greg Camarillo brings to the table. Devin Aromashodu was a starter for seven games after Berrian was released, but still had backup production.
The Secondary
This unit’s best player – Antoine Winfield – turns 35 in June. Improving Chris Cook might be in jail by then. Clearly, none of the other corners on this team deserve to be back. You could say the same about the safeties. But you can’t get rid of everybody because who is going to replace these guys? The secondary has to be focus in April’s draft after the Vikings select a left tackle. They could draft corners with the rest of their draft picks and I wouldn’t complain.
Has E.J. Henderson played his last game as a Viking?
Yes. Henderson has been a great Viking, and as we saw in this game (eight tackles and one forced fumble) there’s no doubt he can still be a productive two-down player. But the team needs to get younger and find a long-term replacement at this vital position. Perhaps that replacement is Jasper Brinkley. The Lions Stephen Tulloch is a free agent. He’s had a fine season and is just 27. I’m not sure why he’d leave a playoff team for a rebuilding one, but money talks in the NFL.
What about Visanthe Shiancoe?
See above.
Should the Vikings trade Jared Allen?
No. After a 22-sack season, Allen’s value will never be higher. He turns 30 and would bring in a healthy of haul of draft picks for the Vikings. But keeping Allen could also jumpstart the rebuilding process and the example he sets on the field is going to be valuable for a team that will be very young next year.
Jim Kleinsasser – a true Viking
The 13-year veteran didn’t score a touchdown in the final game of his career. He didn’t even register a catch or a carry. But that seems like a more fitting way for Kleinsasser to go out. He did today what he’s done for a number of seasons now. He blocked and did it with gusto. Throughout his career he was the anti-Randy Moss, the anti-Fred Smoot, the anti-Chris Cook. He made no waves off the field. He did his job and let his play speak for itself. Well done, Jim.
Pacifist Viking
I feel the Vikings fans that read the blogosphere have been poorer this year without the observations of Pacifist Viking. It’s been a year since he decided to pack it in. Maybe the misery he experienced following the Vikings in 2011 will inspire him to write again in 2012. Or maybe not.
Rage, Vikings Fans, Rage
It’s been a brutal year. Feel free to vent about it here today. I’ll promise to vent with you.
Joe Webb had a chance today to make a case that he deserves to be considered seriously as the Vikings starting quarterback in 2012. But if the team has to run this stripped-down offence (I think the Vikings ran the same three plays the entire second half) when Webb is playing, they had best turn him into a full-time receiver tomorrow.
At least the Vikings secured the number three overall pick in the college draft with the loss. But there was something unsettling about this affair. A loss in a shootout, with either Christian Ponder or Webb guiding the Vikings up and down the field, would have signaled a ray of hope for Vikings fans that a relatively quick turnaround is possible. But the Vikings two in-house candidates for the #1 quarterback position both struggled today. Webb and Ponder both look a long ways from being able to lead this team back to relevance.
The following months will be as an important an offseason as the Vikings have faced since they last went 3-13 in 1984. There are so many questions facing this franchise, it’s difficult to know where to start. But I’ll try.
Christian Ponder
Is Ponder the Vikings answer at quarterback? Before he got crushed and left the game for good, he didn’t play very well. He looked jumpy in the pocket again, was inaccurate – particularly on the screen pass to wide-open Toby Gerhart that led to a pick-six for the Bears. It was the latest in a disturbing string of poor performances by Ponder. For a guy who is supposed to have a high football IQ, his poor decisions throwing the football was worrying, as were his happy feet in the pocket. But Ponder had some good moments as well and he suffers in comparison to fellow rookies Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, who had outstanding rookie seasons. At this point there are only questions not answers about Ponder. He will have to answer some of them affirmatively in 2012.
Does Leslie Frazier deserve another year?
Yes. He was decisive in getting rid of deadweight like Bryant McKinnie and Bernard Berrian. He handled a tumultuous year (some of it his own doing) with dignity and class. Plus, the team kept playing hard when it could have packed it in. There are also plenty of demerits on Frazier’s resume, too. He frequently seems overmatched making in-game strategic decisions and his push to trade for Donovan McNabb turned out to be a disaster. But I think the Vikings need some stability during a time of instability. Frazier needs some time to implement his grand plan for the team. One year isn’t enough time to do so.
What about Bill Musgrave?
Keep him. Today’s offensive performance doesn’t provide me with much of an argument for keeping Musgrave. But Musgrave didn’t have much to work with. His play calling and personnel groupings left Viking fans scratching their heads at times, but the team also scored 28 points or more in three of its final five games. Musgrave also wisely made Percy Harvin the focal point of the offence after Adrian Peterson went down with a high ankle sprain against Oakland. That evolution should continue as the Vikings find Harvin some help in the passing game.
The Offensive Line
Fixing this unit has to be the Vikings top offseason priority. But it may not require an entire housecleaning. Almost everything I’ve read this season about center John Sullivan was glowingly positive. Phil Loadholt – annoying false starts aside – is fine at right tackle. Drafting USC’s Matt Kalil to start at left tackle is the key. That allows Charlie Johnson to move to guard to replace Anthony Herrera. If Steve Hutchinson retires, the Vikings can plug in Brandon Fusco or go the free agent route. If Hutchinson returns for another season, that’s okay as well. Give this unit a full offseason of working together and we might be surprised by the improvement.
The Wide Receivers
Harvin is a marvel, but other than Stephen Burton, whose size (6’1, 224 pounds) and age (22) warrants a second look next year, the rest of this sorry crew needs to be gone. That includes 30-year-old Michael Jenkins, who could serve as an okay #3 wideout on a contending team, but is a needless luxury on a rebuilding one. Any warm body could provide what Greg Camarillo brings to the table. Devin Aromashodu was a starter for seven games after Berrian was released, but still had backup production.
The Secondary
This unit’s best player – Antoine Winfield – turns 35 in June. Improving Chris Cook might be in jail by then. Clearly, none of the other corners on this team deserve to be back. You could say the same about the safeties. But you can’t get rid of everybody because who is going to replace these guys? The secondary has to be focus in April’s draft after the Vikings select a left tackle. They could draft corners with the rest of their draft picks and I wouldn’t complain.
Has E.J. Henderson played his last game as a Viking?
Yes. Henderson has been a great Viking, and as we saw in this game (eight tackles and one forced fumble) there’s no doubt he can still be a productive two-down player. But the team needs to get younger and find a long-term replacement at this vital position. Perhaps that replacement is Jasper Brinkley. The Lions Stephen Tulloch is a free agent. He’s had a fine season and is just 27. I’m not sure why he’d leave a playoff team for a rebuilding one, but money talks in the NFL.
What about Visanthe Shiancoe?
See above.
Should the Vikings trade Jared Allen?
No. After a 22-sack season, Allen’s value will never be higher. He turns 30 and would bring in a healthy of haul of draft picks for the Vikings. But keeping Allen could also jumpstart the rebuilding process and the example he sets on the field is going to be valuable for a team that will be very young next year.
Jim Kleinsasser – a true Viking
The 13-year veteran didn’t score a touchdown in the final game of his career. He didn’t even register a catch or a carry. But that seems like a more fitting way for Kleinsasser to go out. He did today what he’s done for a number of seasons now. He blocked and did it with gusto. Throughout his career he was the anti-Randy Moss, the anti-Fred Smoot, the anti-Chris Cook. He made no waves off the field. He did his job and let his play speak for itself. Well done, Jim.
Pacifist Viking
I feel the Vikings fans that read the blogosphere have been poorer this year without the observations of Pacifist Viking. It’s been a year since he decided to pack it in. Maybe the misery he experienced following the Vikings in 2011 will inspire him to write again in 2012. Or maybe not.
Rage, Vikings Fans, Rage
It’s been a brutal year. Feel free to vent about it here today. I’ll promise to vent with you.
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